RADIO
Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. J.B. Holmes captured his fifth PGA Tour title at the Genesis Open, outlasting second-place finisher Justin Thomas by one shot. Holmes got off to a fast start on Thursday, shooting an eight-under 63, but that is about the only thing that the 36-year-old has ever done quickly. While the headlines should be about Holmes' fantastic return to golf after having brain surgery in 2012, most of the discussion has been around his glacial pace on the golf course. Critics have lambasted the 42nd-ranked player in the world for being bad for the game because of his snail-like pace, and jokes have been flying in swiftly on social media. (I personally liked this one here).
I think this topic is a double-edged sword. There is no question that Holmes needs to speed up his play to allow a more free-flowing event to be played. But in the same breath, these golfers are playing for millions of dollars and every stroke counts. The difference between one shot can be a two-year exemption on tour versus a demotion to the Web.com Tour. Outside factors such as wind and rain only further amplify the difficulty that these players are facing, and golf has always been a thinking man's game that should reward golfers who can accurately crunch the numbers in their head.
With all that being said, the PGA Tour needs to get an improved set of rules in place. I am not advocating for a 24-second shot clock like the NBA has or anything like that, but we do need stricter jurisdictions that clearly state what a player can and can not get away with on the course. Until that happens, we are allowing golfers to use the loopholes in the system to their advantage. If J.B. Holmes isn't going to get penalized for slow play, what will stop him from waiting three minutes for the wind to die down before he hits his ball? In a year where the PGA has implemented countless new rules to the tour, it is essential that they address this situation quickly. With the WGC-Mexico Championship on tap, let's get into some value plays we will be targeting at Club de Golf Chapultepec.
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For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.
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2019 WGC Mexico Championship - Club de Golf Chapultepec
7,330 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Poa
To the naked eye, last week's Genesis Open held at Riviera Country Club is going to look identical to this week's venue of Club de Golf Chapultepec. Both courses are Par 71s that play around 7,330 yards and feature Poa Annua greens. However, the two properties could not be further apart in the way they play.
Riviera Country Club's yardage was hidden, meaning its short par-fives and driveable par-four masked the total length of the facility. To make up for that distance, six of the par-four holes at Riviera stretched over 450 yards, and an additional three par-fours came in at over 430 yards. Club de Golf Chapultepec is the opposite. Measuring almost 7,500 feet above sea level, the ball will fly nearly nine percent further, turning the venue into around 6,700 yards for the players this week.
The Kikuyu fairways will suit pure ball-strikers and placement off the tee is more important than distance. If you miss on the wrong side, tree-lined parklands will impede your second shot and require layups to get out of danger. Overall, Chapultepec is a strategic course that does have small, undulating greens with the same makeup as Riviera last week. Strokes gained approach is the most critical factor to consider, while par-four scoring, ball-striking and short iron proximity will also be at a premium.
WGC Mexico Championship Pick to Win
Xander Schauffele - 22/1, DK Price $9,100, FD Price $11,100
We have an exciting betting card this week at the WGC Mexico Championship. Seventy-two players will be teeing it up at Club de Golf Chapultepec, and all golfers are guaranteed four rounds of golf. This, of course, is assuming that someone doesn't drink the water and get sick during the event. Justin Thomas leads the way at 10/1, followed closely by Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson at 11/1, Jon Rahm at 16/1 and the trio of Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau and Rickie Fowler all coming in at 18/1.
WGCs have notoriously been known to produce winners that are the who's who of the golf world, and it is difficult to deviate from that mindset when breaking down this event. If we do get a champion that is slightly off-the-radar, my guess would be it comes from one of the non-American golfers. Stacking the card with players such as Alex Noren, Louis Oosthuizen, Cameron Smith and Tyrell Hatton is an option, but I'd prefer to keep things simple in Mexico.
Xander Schauffele (22/1) comes into the WGC Mexico Championship on fire. The 25-year-old has produced seven consecutive top-25 results, including wins at the WGC-HSBC Champions and Sentry Tournament of Champions. With his effort since October, Schauffele has moved up to seventh in the world and has entered golf's elite.
Of Schauffele's four career PGA Tour victories, three have featured the same two dynamics we will be facing this weekend (no cut and limited fields). He arrives in Mexico having gained strokes putting in his previous seven trackable tournaments and quietly strung together a share of 15th place at the Genesis Open last week. Schauffele has been a superb Poa putter in his career, and two straight weeks on the surface should only amplify his production.
The San Diego native has been locked in with his wedges, on point with his around the green game and just needs a few hot putting days to find his way back into the winner's circle. Schauffele is projected to be a popular choice at $9,100 on DraftKings, but in a limited field, beggars can't be choosers. The no-cut feature has Schauffele as an option in all game types, and his birdie-making upside should be conducive to DFS scoring.
WGC Mexico Championship Sleepers
Bryson DeChambeau - 18/1, DK Price $10,000, FD Price $11,500.
If nothing else, this weekend will be an interesting case study. How will the player with the best mind in golf deal with 7,500 feet of elevation? I believe there is a scenario where Bryson DeChambeau mathematically calculates every minute detail possible and laps the field to win by 10 shots. But there is also a genuine possibility that the American internally combusts trying to gauge proper trajectory, spin and yardage in his head. While both possess a likelihood of happening, we are looking for an outright winner, and the difference between second and last place is the same thing.
DeChambeau has been the best player in the world for the previous six months, recording 11 straight top-19 finishes, including four victories worldwide. However, his dominance since August has failed to translate into betting respect. He has captured only two fewer titles than Thomas, Johnson, McIlroy, Rahm, Fowler and Koekpa have combined since August, yet he comes into the week at the same price or higher than every player mentioned above. From a long-term ROI standpoint, 18/1 remains a steal for the hottest golfer in the world, especially in a limited field event that could have wits come into play. DeChambeau is the sixth highest priced player on DraftKings at 10,000 and is projected to be the eighth highest owned person on the slate. The no-cut feature makes him playable in all game types, although I would prefer to use him as a GPP option because of his lack of course history and potential for combustion.
Marc Leishman - 35/1, DK Price $8,700, FD Price $10,800
After virtually everyone in the community was touting Marc Leishman during the early portion of the 2019 calendar season, the dust has settled around the 35-year-old. However, it seems perplexing to me that the industry has decided to jump ship so soon. Since the new year began in October, all Leishman has done is make all seven cuts, register a victory at the CIMB Classic and post four additional top-four finishes, including a share of fourth at last week's Genesis Open.
The 16th-ranked player in the world is a premier ball-striker, dangerous iron player and quality birdie-maker. Leishman's 37th place finish during last year's event is suppressing his ownership projection, but I am thrilled to grab someone that is grading out inside the top-10 for me statistically. Leishman's reduced ownership and increased outright price make him one of the better plays on DFS sites, and his outright price of 35/1 is around 10 points too high from where it should be. This season, the 'Big Aussie' is ranked inside the top-10 compared to the field in strokes gained approach, strokes gained total, strokes gained-putting, GIR, proximity and par-three, par-four and par-five average. Not to mention he is ranked sixth in birdie or better percentage and fifth in bogey avoidance. Fire Leishman up in all game types this weekend.
Webb Simpson - 35/1, DK Price $8,300, FD Price $9,800
The California swing took a lot out of most players, and there's a legitimate case to be made that some golfers could see their form regress this weekend in Mexico. Webb Simpson, though, will enter the week as one of the freshest golfers on tour with only two starts in 2019. The lack of golf could also be interpreted as a negative, but Simpson has been red-hot since the Military Tribute at the Greenbrier in July, posting 13 consecutive made cuts to go along with six top-20 finishes in his previous six starts.
On the year, the 21st ranked player in the world is ranked second compared to the field in strokes gained approach, fourth in proximity from 100-150 yards, first in par-four average, first in final round scoring and first in bogey avoidance. Simpson's lack of tournament golf has made him a forgotten about option coming into Mexico from a betting perspective, but his pristine iron play will give him an ample amount of opportunities to score -- especially at a venue that will highlight his immaculate approach game. Simpson does his best work on Bermuda greens, but he is an above average putter on Poa and should have no shortage of makeable putts at Chapultepec. The 33-year-old has the consistency to be a staple to cash-game lineups and the explosiveness to be a game-changer in GPP events.
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
No head-to-head bet. Will continue at next week's Honda Classic.
2019 Head-to-Head Record (8-3-2)
+6.05 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets
|
Tournament |
Head-to-Head Bet |
Bet |
My Picks Finish |
Opponent Finish |
Result |
Total |
|
Safeway Open |
Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk |
1.00 Units to Win 1.30 |
MC (+2) |
MC (E) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
CIMB Classic |
Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway |
1.50 Units to Win 1.25 |
T19 (-17) |
T27 (-13) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
CJ Cup |
Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T18 (-8) |
T18 (-8) |
Push |
0 |
|
WGC-HSBC |
Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na |
1.00 Units to Win 1.20 |
T18 (-1) |
T54 (+10) |
Win |
1.20 |
|
Shriners |
Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley |
1.00 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
MC (-1) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
Mayakoba |
Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T41 (-9) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
RSM Classic |
Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
2nd (-19) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Sony Open |
Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T51 (-6) |
Did Not Start |
Push |
0 |
|
Desert Classic |
Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T34 (-14) |
MC (-8) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace |
0.70 Units to Win 0.91 |
MC (+4) |
MC (+3) |
Loss |
-0.70 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T35 (-7) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Waste Management |
Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway |
1.00 Units to Win 1.05 |
T60 (E) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.05 |
|
Genesis Open |
Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T9 (-7) |
T51 (+1) |
Win |
1.00 |
2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
|
Player |
Event |
Odds |
Finish Position |
|
Matt Kuchar |
Mayakoba Golf Classic |
66/1 |
1 |
|
Chesson Hadley |
CIMB Classic |
110/1 |
T2 |
|
Ryan Palmer |
CJ Cup |
150/1 |
T3 |
|
Sam Ryder |
Shriners Hospitals |
80/1 |
3 |
|
Chez Reavie |
Sony Open |
80/1 |
T3 |
|
Justin Thomas |
Waste Management |
10/1 |
3 |
|
Jason Day |
CJ Cup |
13/1 |
T5 |
|
Zach Johnson |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Kevin Kisner |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Webb Simpson |
TOC |
25/1 |
T8 |
|
J.B. Holmes |
Safeway Open |
60/1 |
9 |
|
Gary Woodland |
Farmers Insurance |
28/1 |
T9 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Genesis Open |
30/1 |
T9 |
|
Shubankar Sharma |
CIMB Classic |
150/1 |
T10 |
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
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