RADIO
Hey there RotoBallers! Hopefully, your season-long teams are gearing up for the fantasy semifinals. If not, there is plenty of DFS fun to be had this weekend. The Week 15 main slate will be an interesting one as we will be without several high-powered offenses, including the Chiefs, Chargers, Saints, Rams, and Panthers. Because of this, there are no games on the main slate with over/unders above 50 points, with the Patriots-Steelers game the highest at 49.0 points.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize point scoring. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Week 15 DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by salary. The focus will be on the main slate (1:00 PM and 4:00 PM EST Sunday) games across both sites. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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High-Priced Week 15 DFS Stacks
Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins and WR Adam Thielen vs. Miami
If you spent any time watching Cousins' disastrous performance against the Seahawks on Monday night, recency bias will surely make it tough to trust Minnesota this weekend. Try to fight through that, however, as the Vikings are in a prime bounceback spot. First, Cousins has had a tendency to struggle in big, primetime spots over his career. That will not be the case on Sunday as the Vikings have an innocuous 1:00 PM EST home game against a middling Dolphins team. Miami has struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks this season, allowing the 13th-most fantasy points per game to the position and ranking 26th in pass defense DVOA.
The recent offensive struggles in Minnesota have spread to Thielen, who has just 10 catches for 98 yards over his past two games. Despite the struggles, the star receiver is in a prime spot against a Miami defense that has been vulnerable to opposing slot options this season. Dolphins slot corner Bobby McCain has just a 54.6 grade at Pro Football Focus as Miami has allowed big games to other slot options such as Julian Edelman (nine catches for 86 yards and one touchdown), Zay Jones (4-67-2), and Marques Valdes-Scantling (6-44) in recent weeks. Thielen should eat in this matchup.
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. New England
Roethlisberger is expected to play through a painful rib injury which forced him to miss over a quarter of action against the Raiders in Week 14. Provided he's able to suit up in Week 15, as expected, Roethlisberger is a top-five fantasy quarterback from a projected points standpoint. He draws a soft New England pass defense that ranks 19th in DVOA and is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Steelers are three-point home underdogs in the game with the highest projected point total on the slate. With unproven rookie runner Jaylen Samuels likely to operate as the lead back, look for Big Ben to pass frequently in this one.
It seems as though Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster have alternated big games this season. I'm leaning JuJu in Week 15 for a few reasons. First, Brown is expected to draw shadow coverage from stud corner Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has a 90.4 grade at PFF, second-highest behind only Chargers corner Desmond King. While Brown has proven to be matchup-proof over his career, it stands to reason that the Steelers opt to test other members of the New England secondary on Sunday instead of forcing the issue against Gilmore. Second, we know the Patriots like to scheme to take away the opponent's top option. While Smith-Schuster is excellent, Bill Belichick and company probably still consider Brown the most dangerous player on Pittsburgh's offense.
Moderately-Priced Week 15 DFS Stacks
Dallas QB Dak Prescott and WR Amari Cooper @ Indianapolis
Whew, hopefully, you had some Prescott-Cooper shares last week as they hooked up for three touchdowns. We are going back to the well again this week, even though it may seem point-chasey. In reality, this combo has been excellent since the trade and finds themselves in another plus spot against Indianapolis. While the Colts have shown an improved defense this season, they still can be beaten through the air, as evidenced by a pass defense that ranks 18th in DVOA. Prescott should be busy in Week 15 as the Cowboys are three-point road dogs facing a defense that has been good against the run this season.
Cooper has been a WR1 since coming over to Dallas, averaging 8.8 targets, 6.7 catches, and 106.8 yards with six total touchdowns in six games. The Colts have schemed their way to a more respectable pass defense, but they still lack a true shutdown corner, which bodes well for Cooper's chances at staying red-hot. Cooper will run the majority of his routes against Quincy Wilson, the owner of an inadequate 65.4 grade at PFF.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson and WR Tyler Lockett @ San Francisco
Similar to the Vikings, the Seahawks' passing "attack" was just gross this past Monday night. Russell Wilson completed just 10 of 20 passes for 72 yards in the outing. Of course, that poor showing came against a stout Minnesota defense. He should find things much easier in Week 15 as he will face off against a San Francisco defense that he torched for four touchdowns in Week 13. Shake off last week's performance and roll with Wilson this weekend.
Regardless of Doug Baldwin's Week 15 availability, Tyler Lockett is the pass-catcher you will want to pair with Wilson. Lockett has been a touchdown-scoring machine this season, racking up nine scores on 49 catches. While that touchdown rate is unsustainable, the 49ers aren't the team that is going to slow Lockett. San Francisco's pass defense ranks 25th in the league in DVOA this year, and Richard Sherman only plays on the left side, meaning Lockett will avoid him on the majority of his routes run.
Bargain-Priced Week 15 DFS Stacks
Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck and TE Eric Ebron vs. Dallas
Luck will face off against an improved Dallas defense, although it will come at home where the Indy offense tends to play much better. While the Cowboys have been much improved on defense, they are still weaker against the pass, ranking 12th in pass defense DVOA as opposed to fourth-overall in run defense DVOA. That plays into Luck's hands as his Colts offense has a 25-point implied total from the Vegas oddsmakers, a number that is among the highest on the slate.
While T.Y. Hilton's game-breaking speed always has him on the GPP radar, Eric Ebron sets up as a high-floor, high-ceiling play in his own right. Hilton will have to contend with solid shutdown man Byron Jones on 40% of his routes, while Ebron will see a Dallas defense that is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. For what it's worth, I also like a three-man stack of Luck, Hilton, and Ebron as the majority of Luck's targets should go to one of those two pass-catchers. In the two games since Jack Doyle was placed on injured reserve, 49 of Andrew Luck's 93 pass attempts (52.6%) have gone to either Hilton or Ebron.
Buffalo QB Josh Allen and WR Robert Foster vs. Detroit
Allen is the ultimate GPP quarterback as he has a low floor, but plenty of upside, in Week 15 against the Lions. Much of Allen's success the past three weeks has come on the ground, as he's rushed for 335 yards over that span. The Lions have been good at limiting quarterback rushing this season, which gives some pause, but their pass defense has been weak, ranking 31st in DVOA and allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per game.
Robert Foster, and his 4.41-forty wheels, lands squarely in the conversation as a potential GPP option. The rookie wideout has been coming on strong in recent weeks, going for at least 94 receiving yards in three of his past four games played. While he could see some of Darius Slay, the coverage matchups other than Slay are excellent for him. Mike Ford, who grades out at a 47.5 at PFF, should see the most of Foster in coverage.
"YOLO" Contrarian Stack
Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston and WR Cameron Brate @ Baltimore
Baltimore sports one of the best defenses in the league, which should assure that Winston and his pass catchers go largely overlooked in Week 15. That being said, there's potential for plenty of garbage time as the Buccaneers are eight-point road dogs. While I don't trust the Tampa Bay wideouts to do much, Cameron Brate does draw a nice matchup as defending the tight end has been the lone Achilles' heel for Baltimore's defense this season. The Ravens are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game and rank 26th in DVOA against the position. We saw last week that Brate remains one of Winston's favorite targets in the red zone as he caught just two passes, both of which went for scores.
