Selling False RB2s - Why It's OK To Bail Out Now

October 4, 2018

RotoBaller's Frankie Soler evaluates some disappointing fantasy football RB2 busts, advising why you may be better off selling, trading, dropping and bailing out now before it's too late for your 2018 season.

We seem to end up doing this same song and dance every year with running backs. Whether it's someone like a Bilal Powell or Tarik Cohen popping early only to fizzle out, or general disappointments like Jay Ajayi and Adrian Peterson circa 2017, it usually takes a bit of digging to figure out.

Here we'll look at some early rushers who have started poorly and yet are unlikely to pop over the middle of the season. Now, just because the suggestion is to bail these players, it doesn't mean you have to trade and/or drop these players. Every league values players differently. If you start shopping Derrick Henry and the best you can do is Chris Hogan, don't make a trade for the sake of a trade. At that point you're better off hanging on to what you have.

One last quick little disclaimer before we hop to it. For the love of all things holy, please do not try to rip off your fellow league mates. I have a dude in my league who fires off multiple offers a day that are in no way fair for the recipient. One name you're about to see here, for example, is Kenyan Drake. You're not getting Stefon Diggs for Drake straight up right now. Stop it. Be reasonable out there. The fantasy gods are watching you.

Let's Make a Deal

Let's start with the aforementioned Kenyan Drake. Drake now has back to back games with three, yes, THREE rushing yards. Not only are his yardage totals low, he's not getting enough touches either. He's totaled eight rushing attempts and just three receptions over that span. This is a genuine timeshare between Drake and the ageless Frank Gore. The carries are currently split 35 to 33 in favor of Gore. Gore even has 39 more yards on the ground. Drake is someone you are unlikely to get anything for unless someone is truly desperate. You could look to the Le'Veon Bell or Leonard Fournette owner in your league, but again, don't try to rob somebody. Maybe target someone the likes of Nelson Agholor or Demaryius Thomas or some other low-end flex. You're probably better off scouring free agency in the hopes of finding someone serviceable. Drop someone on the end of your bench to take a flier on Nyheim Hines or Ronald Jones at this point. Or, honestly...scoop up Frank Gore.

Another back I am sell, sell, selling is LeSean McCoy. I don't think there is a single Buffalo Bills player who will be worth starting consistently in fantasy this year. Not a single one barring a miraculous offensive turnaround. Having said that, I could see a scenario where you look at your roster and think McCoy is still your best bet. I'm in a league where my options are going to be McCoy or Matt Breida on a week-to-week basis. You can try to play the matchup in that situation, but overall, I lean towards sitting McCoy in favor of someone on your bench. If you're thin, you can cross your fingers on a rebound. I wouldn't start any of the backs I mentioned earlier over McCoy, for example. Hines, Jones, and Gore would be much riskier than McCoy. It's all about context.

I'm actually going to lump the next two names together because I am much more confident in their season-long outlook. The two backs in question are Lamar Miller and Derrick Henry. Both have been disappointing from a raw scoring perspective yet both are still getting a ton of work. Miller is actually eighth in rushing attempts with 58, 14th in rushing yards with 225, but unfortunately sits well outside the top-24 in scoring. The thing is, Miller has been held scoreless on the year and if you add just two touchdowns, he jumps all the way up to RB14 on the year. I get it, rushing touchdowns are flukey, but that's kind of why I'm sitting tight. I'm sitting tight because touchdowns are flukey. He'll get his in time, especially with Deshaun Watson back on track. Keep him in your lineup.

Henry, on the other hand, isn't quite performing as well. It's easy to compare him to his teammate Dion Lewis and say Lewis is the better player right now and you'd be right in terms of fantasy points scored. However, Henry is actually tied for the 13th most rushing attempts in the league at 54 compared to 43 for Lewis. The real problem is that Henry's role in the passing attack is virtually nonexistent. Lewis has 18 receptions to Henry's three. It's a massive discrepancy that gives Lewis a huge edge. Henry is best served to leave on your bench for now, but there's hope that his usage could yield solid production down the line.

The last player I want to talk about is Tevin Coleman of the Atlanta Falcons. Coleman has been worthy of low-end RB2 status since Devonta Freeman went down in week one. With Freeman set to return in week five, Coleman is regulated to flex status. But this is the guy I think you can actually get something legitimate for. Someone may look at Coleman's usable production, Freeman's injury woes, and Atlanta's powerful offense and be willing to give you something of value. This is a weird case of selling high on a guy who isn't performing at a superstar level. Again, target the Le'Veon Bell or Leonard Fournette, maybe even the Dalvin Cook owner in your league desperate for a warm body. Below are some deals I think you might be able to swing depending on roster construction.

Tevin Coleman and Juju Smith-Schuster for David Johnson. You'd have to be stocked at receiver and be willing to buy low on Johnson for this to work but it's worth trying. In terms of upgrading at receiver, you could pair someone like Coleman and Emmanuel Sanders for Adam Thielen. That one is a bit more of a long-shot, but you get the idea of where I'm going with this.

Tevin Coleman for Josh Gordon. This may sound crazy, but the Gordon owner in your league might be done with him. You'd be taking another risk, but the upside on Gordon is tremendous compared to the flex status of Coleman. Some other straight swaps I would consider: Coleman for Alex Collins, Trey Burton, or Corey Davis.

The takeaway here is that not only does it depend on the makeup of your roster, but player value will always vary by league. If you're super thin at RB or no one is willing to trade, you may be stuck with whoever you have at this point. But it is almost always worth poking around to see how you can improve. Just keep a level head on how realistic the possibilities are.

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