RADIO
We've reached that point in the year where teams are getting banged up, and whoever stays the healthiest playing a key role in virtually every matchup. Picking on the backups that precede starting defensive backs is a common strategy among DFS players, simply because it's a solid process. Fortunately, we have plenty of data to break down those matchups, and pick the best ones to target for the coming week.
Nothing is more important than matchup analyzation when it comes to fantasy football. Playing your teams’ best players on a regular basis is important, but picking apart the top matchups on a week to week basis can win you a championship, or even better, some cold hard cash in DFS. Matchups for the wide receiver position aren’t always as black and white as they can be for other positions. Receivers need to be broken down even deeper by analyzing the potential cornerback matchup they’re going to draw. This is especially true in potential shadow coverage cases such as any time an X receiver plays against Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals. Some analytical data used here such as fantasy points allowed per route covered, and percentage of routes run on the left side, right side, and in the slot is courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Now, here are the top WR vs CB matchups for Week 4. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge in the Daily Fantasy realm.
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
HOU WR Will Fuller vs. IND CB Nate Hairston
Nate Hairston has been Indianapolis's worst defensive back BY FAR this season, allowing 13 catches for 149 yards and a touchdown. His two partners in the secondary, Kenny Moore II and Pierre Desir, are both allowing passer ratings below 75 when thrown at through three games.
Will Fuller is as red-hot as any other wide receiver in football right now. He has two 100 yard-games to show for his first two weeks of work, and he draws a cupcake-matchup versus Hairston on the right side. Fuller hasn't been a product of just gross efficiency, either. The usage is there, with nine and 11 targets in weeks 2 and 3, respectively.
Fuller's price is steadily rising on DraftKings, but I want some exposure to him just one more time before his price gets out of hand in the $7000-range.
Pivot: DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins is matchup-proof, and he's borderline gamescript-proof given how important his role in the offense is. This game versus the Colts has the sixth-highest implied total on the entire Week 4 slate, meaning there's plenty of fantasy points to be spread around the two teams.
CHI WR Allen Robinson vs. TB CB Brent Grimes
Allen Robinson has been force-fed through the first month of the season, but we haven't quite seen that smash-game that we expect from such usage. Robinson has drawn 26-percent of the Bears target-market share, and he has just shy of 50-percent of the teams total air-yards. Still, he has just 34 PPR-points to show for it. That all could change when one of the league's worst secondaries strolls into Chicago.
Robinson will do battle with Brent Grimes, whose missed the last two games since getting manhandled by Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn Jr. Grimes allowed five catches for 106 yards and a touchdown in the only contest he's played in this year, and I don't expect him to play his best football on the road versus a player that physically out-matches him.
I'm honestly not opposed to getting a little cute with a tournament line and stacking this game, mainly because I expect the field to fade it completely.
Pivot: Kenny Stills
Kenny Stills is a solid price-point pivot off Robinson. Stills has scored three touchdowns this season, and he'll face off against a corner thats prone to surrendering long touchdowns in Stephon Gillmore. Gillmore is no joke in coverage, meaning Stills is only in play in large-field GPPs this weekend.
TB WR DeSean Jackson vs. CHI CB Kevin Tolliver II
DeSean Jackson finally cooled off in Week 3 in a plus-matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Before then, he was scorching hot, catching all nine of his targets for 275 yards and three touchdowns. He was playing with God-mode efficiency, so he was destined for regression at some point.
I like the idea of going right back to him in Week 4 in a game that could go under the radar, specifically because the Chicago Bears defense has been so dominant to start the season. The line for this game is set at 46.5, implying that the pace could be fairly high given how inefficient the Bears offense has been.
Finally, Bears CB Prince Amukamara has already been ruled out for this game. Jackson will run a heavy percentage of routes against backup CB Kevin Tolliver II, who in relief of Amukamara last week surrendered four catches for 54 yards on just 19 coverage snaps last week.
Pivot: Mike Evans
I don't expect a true-shadow on Mike Evans from Kyle Fuller. Evans could realistically see just as much Tolliver as Jackson does, which makes me want to get some exposure to him in tournaments. Evans is the PPR WR2 this season, so it's entirely possible not even good CB play could slow him down right now.
NYG WR Sterling Shepard vs. NO CB P.J. Williams
New Orleans just placed Patrick Robinson, their starting nickel corner, on injured reserve this week. This was already a secondary that was getting toasted at the CB2 spot, and now they have a gaping hole in the slot. It's fair to assume Odell Beckham Jr. will draw a shadow from Marshon Lattimore on Sunday. No matter where Sterling Shepard lines up, he'll have massive leverage over his opponent.
Saints CB P.J. Williams will be filling in at nickel back for New Orleans, and he's already allowed 161 receiving yards and three touchdowns in coverage despite only playing 33 total snaps this year. Shepard will be one of the highest-owned players on the Sunday slate, but it's justified given the matchup and the possibility this game shoots out.
Pivot: Geronimo Allison
I don't recommend you pivot off Shepard in any format, but just in case you're max entering and need some contrarian plays, Geronimo Allison is in a pretty good spot against Buffalo at home. Randall Cobb is a game-time decision for Week 4, and Allison could certainly run some routes out of the slot if Cobb is limited or can't go entirely. He's priced similarly to Cobb, and he's already caught two touchdowns this year. Allison is a candidate for eight-plus targets with Cobb potentially out of the lineup and Bills CB Tre'Davious White likely shadowing Davante Adams.
