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Joe Nicely digs into his daily fantasy Power Pivot contrarian selections for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season, featuring low-ownership-percentage players who can help your NFL DFS lineups for DraftKings GPP tournaments.
Hello RotoBaller football family! Welcome back to Power Pivots, where we discuss some alternative player options for use in DraftKings tournaments. As we saw last week, chalk plays don't always work. Popular options like Julio Jones, Corey Clement, and Eric Ebron had underwhelming performances, while lesser-known options Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley had huge weeks.
While there are always tons of various factors involved when choosing players for our lineups, my goal with this column is to help readers avoid the "group-think" mentality that can often work its way into our lineup decisions. The players we use might not always work out the way we expect, but our focus should be on the process more than the result if our goal is to maintain long-term DFS success.
All ownership projections in this article are courtesy of the awesome folks at UFCollective. They provide the most accurate ownership projections that I have found in the DFS industry and now offer their content directly to the public. It is a premium product that is worth every penny and available here. They offer NFL, NBA, and MLB content for both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can follow them on Twitter @UFCollective.
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Week 4 NFL DFS Power Pivots for DraftKings GPPs
As I mention every week, ownership considerations should come at the end of your weekly research process. Ownership projections change throughout the week and I highly recommend that you refer back to this column before finalizing your lineups. I will update ownership projections and add injury notes with additional strategy thoughts on Saturdays.
QB CHALK: Baker Mayfield ($5,300)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 8.28% *UPDATED: 8.19%
POWER PIVOT: Andy Dalton ($5,400)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 5.29% *UPDATED: 5.93%
While big boys Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers are expected to draw the highest ownership at QB in Week 4, rookie sensation Baker Mayfield logs in at a surprisingly high 8.28% projected ownership share. There are some things to like about Mayfield, he obviously has talent and his $5,300 price tag is excellent. However, I'm going to pump the brakes a bit with getting the rookie into my lineups this week. He looked great in relief of Tyrod Taylor, but caught the Jets defense a little by surprise, as Todd Haley was forced into aggressive play-calling with the Browns trailing. I expect this week's matchup against Oakland to stay fairly close throughout and look for a more conservative game plan from Cleveland.
Let's stay in the bargain-basement price range and talk about Cincy QB Andy Dalton, who is priced just $100 more than Mayfield, yet somewhat head-scratchingly, is only projected for around 5% ownership this week. Dalton may not be flashy, but "The Red Rifle" has been getting the job done, as the Cincy offense is averaging 29.66 points per game through their first three this season. He is coming off a 352 yard, 2 TD performance against a tough Carolina defense in Week 3 and he's averaging 21.7 DraftKings points per game in 2018.
A huge reason I really want to get Dalton in my lineups this week is his dream matchup with an Atlanta Falcons defense that has been decimated by injuries. The Falcons were already without Keanu Neal and Deion Jones, before safety Ricardo Allen went down in last week's loss to New Orleans. The loss of these key pieces is starting to show up for Atlanta. They were shredded by Drew Brees at home in Week 3, relinquishing 396 yards and five total TDs to the Saints QB. The Falcons defense has a DVOA ranking of 25th vs. the pass and has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game through the first three games of the season.
Vegas is expecting this game to be a shootout and it carries a DraftKings main slate-high Over/Under of 51.5. At the time of this writing, A.J. Green is dealing with a groin injury, but is expected to play. His status is definitely something worth keeping an eye on throughout the week, as his availability will obviously impact Dalton's upside. Green aside, I like the weapons around Dalton. Tyler Boyd has emerged as a legit number two WR, Tyler Eifert appears to finally be healthy, and Gio Bernard is slated to fill-in for Joe Mixon, which should keep Dalton busy with dump-offs that can turn into big plays against this hobbled Atlanta defense. Dalton has a really nice floor and is averaging 38 pass attempts per game. He should be forced to keep chucking the football Sunday in an effort to keep up with a high-octane Atlanta offense.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Not much movement here. I'm semi-shocked that Dalton's ownership hasn't skyrocketed. We've seen the Over/Under in this matchup shoot up over the last couple of days. I love Dalton's price, low ownership, and matchup.
RB CHALK: Saquon Barkley ($8,100)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 16.89% *UPDATED: 16.20
POWER PIVOT: Giovani Bernard ($6,300)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 12.20% *UPDATED: 22.50%
I'm sticking with the Bengals theme here at RB. Giants phenom Saquon Barkley is expected to garner a 16.89% ownership share at $8,100 against the Saints, but I'm just not buying it. As I spoke about last week, in DFS we often let perception influence decisions. People perceive New Orleans as a cake matchup for Barkley, but in reality, they rank first in both DVOA against the run and in yards allowed per carry. Doesn't sound as good after seeing those stats does it? While Barkley certainly has the talent to have a nice game, it isn't the type of matchup that we go searching for.
The RB that does have what is perhaps the best matchup of the week is Cincy's Gio Bernard. He is projected to be lower-owned than Barkley and offers a whopping $1,800 in salary savings. We touched on Atlanta's injury situation earlier and while they are struggling across the board, they have been destroyed by pass-catching running backs over the last two weeks. In Week 2 Christian McCaffrey logged an amazing 14 receptions for 102 yards out of the Carolina backfield, while in Week 3 we saw Alvin Kamara put it to the Falcons with 15 catches for 124 yards.
This matchup falls right in Gio's wheelhouse, as his strength is his receiving ability. Bernard logged nine targets out of the Cincy backfield last week and I wouldn't be surprised to see that number rise into the teens this week against Atlanta. The one caveat to using Bernard this week is the status of Joe Mixon. While Mixon isn't expected to be available, it's something we want to monitor throughout the week.
SATURDAY UPDATE: I'm not surprised that Gio has surged up the ownership projection board. He is one of those plays that we don't need to overthink, just lock him in and go. Injuries are playing a factor at RB in Week 4...with New England down to two backs Sony Michel is gaining traction as a cheap option for $4,500. Jay Ajayi appears to be ready to go for Philly against a terrible Tennessee run defense. Leonard Fournette has been practicing and most expect him to suit up for the Jags against the Jets. Fournette is an interesting option at just 5.69% projected ownership. I prefer Carlos Hyde and his guaranteed usage at $5,500 over both Michel and Ajayi.
WR CHALK: Calvin Ridley ($4,900)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 14.29% *UPDATED: 13.92%
POWER PIVOT: Sterling Shepard ($4,900)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 4.22% *UPDATED: 18.80%
Remember in the intro when I mentioned "group-think"? Well, we are going to see it in full swing this week with Calvin Ridley. After destroying the Saints in Week 3, the fantasy football world is buzzing about the young Atlanta receiver and he is expected to garner heavy ownership, despite a price increase of $1,200. Even with his newfound popularity, Ridley is still the third option in Atlanta.
I am interested in piggybacking off of Ridley's huge game last week, but not by targeting him. Instead, I'm looking to target the weak Saints secondary that Ridley was able to torch. Those same Saint defenders will be lining up against the New York Giants this week. Odell Beckham Jr. should draw the coverage of New Orleans lockdown specialist Marshon Lattimore, leaving Sterling Shepard to feast on the rest of the Saints secondary. As we touched on above with Saquon Barkley, the Saints actually have a funnel defense, ranking first in DVOA against the run, but last against the pass.
Matchup and opportunity lead me to Shepard this week. The matchup doesn't get much better, as Shepard draws a Saints secondary that has been shredded in every game this season and ranks dead-last in the NFL in both DVOA vs. the pass and passing yards allowed. Shepard should also have plenty of opportunity in a game script that should see the Giants forced to keep up with a high-powered Saints offense. The absence of Evan Engram with an MCL sprain helps to raise Shepard's target share and in turn, his fantasy floor. OBJ's presence does slightly cap his upside, but we have seen number two WR's have huge games against this New Orleans defense. I love Shepard's chances this week.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Sterling Shepard's projected ownership has exploded in the past couple of days, due to industry buzz and a dream matchup. Odell Beckham Jr. is the WR with the highest projected ownership percentage at 22.11%. The general public is often reluctant to use two WR's from the same team, but I actually love the idea of playing Shepard & OBJ together in this matchup. Some injury notes at WR...Keenan Allen has popped up as Questionable, but is expected to play. Whether Allen plays or not, I love the matchup for LA's Mike Williams at $4,500. Randall Cobb is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury, which might not seem like a big deal, but it would bring Geronimo Allison into play for me at $4,700.
TE CHALK: Rob Gronkowski ($7,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 13.44% *UPDATED: 13.34%
POWER PIVOT: Dallas Goedert ($2,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 1.61% *UPDATED: 1.49%
The TE position is always a tricky prospect in DFS. I've long been a proponent of taking a boom-or-bust approach at TE. I prefer going all the way up the salary scale or searching for a dirt-cheap option with upside. Gronk sits atop the salary scale this week, as he often does. While he is always capable of a huge game, I don't love his matchup against Miami and I have concerns about the weapons that New England currently has around him.
This one is not for the faint of heart, but those in need of salary relief might want to give Philly TE Dallas Goedert a look. A rookie out of South Dakota St., Goedert has tons of talent and popped up last week for 73 yards and a TD on seven catches. I don't believe it's a coincidence that Goedert's coming-out party took place in Carson Wentz's first game back from injury. Wentz is an MVP-level talent that has no problem spreading the ball around and will elevate Goedert's value in ways that Nick Foles just couldn't.
I hate to feel like I'm "points-chasing", but we don't need the Philly TE to duplicate his output from last week. This is a price-motivated play, but I look for Goedert to get at least five targets against a middle-of-the-road Titans defense. He is a large-field GPP play with a lower floor than I normally like, but has sneaky upside for near min-price. At $2,800, Goedert doesn't kill lineups with a bad game and offers a huge amount of savings that we can use elsewhere in Week 4.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Not much change in ownership projections here. I find myself landing in the mid-$3k range when constructing lineups. For those that want a little more safety at TE than Goedert offers, Tyler Eifert, OJ Howard, and Eric Ebron are solid discount options.
D/ST CHALK: Los Angeles Chargers ($3,900)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 11.42% *UPDATED: 11.51%
POWER PIVOT: Chicago Bears ($2,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 7.56% *UPDATED: 7.63%
The Chargers draw a nice matchup this week against a San Fran offense that just lost Jimmy Garopolo for the season. However, I have to give those that are interested in the Chargers defense the old "not so fast my friends". I can't argue with the quality of the matchup against a backup QB, but three games into the season I find myself wondering if the Chargers defense was extremely overrated heading into 2018. At any rate, if I'm paying up this week, I'm going with Jacksonville vs. the Jets for only $200 more.
I'm more interested in sliding down in pricing to the Chicago Bears at $2,600. They draw a matchup against a surprisingly explosive Tampa Bay offense. As of this writing, it looks as though Ryan Fitzpatrick will continue to lead the Bucs and I am here for it. Although "FitzMagic" has been running wild, there's a reason the guy has never had sustained success in the NFL. He has a tendency to make bad throws that lead to interceptions in bunches. This issue is exacerbated when he's under pressure. Not a recipe for success when facing a Khalil Mack-led Bears defense that has logged 14 sacks through three games in 2018. I love Chicago's chances to rack up a defensive TD in this matchup and I'm frankly surprised that their projected ownership is so reasonable.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Nothing to see here as both teams are holding steady. I still prefer Chicago at their discounted price to LA. For those that want to pay up, Jacksonville is in a great spot. If you are searching for an even cheaper play than the Bears, there's a lot to like with Indy at a dirt-cheap $2,200.
