RADIO
Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of SP Zach Eflin and Manny Machado to determine whether they will continue to help fantasy rosters in 2018.
The Trade Deadline moves started early, with Manny Machado heading to Hollywood. Elite players are likely to remain elite regardless of where they play, but Machado's fantasy value is probably due for a slight hit.
Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia are the other notable fantasy options on the move, and both figure to see a massive decline in their fantasy value. There is little doubt that Hand is better than Cody Allen, but the fact that he made his Tribe debut in the seventh inning suggests that Allen's job is secure. Familia hasn't pitched for the A's as of this writing, but early word is that Blake Treinen will continue seeing saves.
A deeper dive into either would be pointless, as there's no way to predict what a manager will decide to do. Instead, let's see if Zach Eflin's hot start is sustainable before transitioning to Machado.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Zach Eflin (SP, PHI) - 70% Owned
Eflin was completely off of the fantasy radar coming into 2018, a perfectly logical reaction to an ERA above six the previous year. He's back with a vengeance though, compiling a 3.15 ERA and 3.77 xFIP over 68 2/3 IP at the MLB level this year. He's better than he was, but the peripherals suggest a streamer at best.
The biggest difference between 2018 Eflin and any other vintage is he gets strikeouts now. His K% is up to 24% from a career mark of 16%, thanks in part to a velocity spike (93.7mph last year, 95mph this). A lot of analysts are pointing to the spike and immediately concluding that the Ks are sustainable, but it's not clear that it is. Notably, he wasn't striking out anybody at Triple-A this year (17.7% K% in 20 IP).
The velocity spike is accompanied by a dramatic change in pitch selection. Eflin is trusting his fastball (24.6% last year to 47.6% this) and slider (12.9% to 20.7%) more often than his sinker (43.5% to 12.8%), while also swapping the usage rates of his change (7.6% to 11%) and curve (11.4% to 6.8%). The curve is terrible (8.3% SwStr%, 38.9% Zone%, 20.5% chase), so the switch would be expected to improve Eflin's performance.
Eflin's heater has done a great job limiting opposing batters (.212/.271/.331 vs. .262/.318/.509 career), but its velocity spike is accompanied by a spin rate decline (2,194 RPM vs. 2,211 last year). A high-spin fastball can limit contact quality, but Eflin's is only average. His heater's 60% Zone% is also high enough to question whether he's throwing too many strikes, potentially making him more predictable as the scouting report circulates. MLB hitters can handle 95 with average movement, so it seems unlikely that this fastball will continue to stymie them the way it has.
Eflin's slider is interesting in that it's a strike 49.3% of the time. That means that it's more of a fastball alternative to use in the zone than a traditional secondary offering. It ranks very well if judged as a fastball (14% SwStr%, 39.3% Zone%), making it a great compliment to a true wipeout pitch.
Eflin's changeup wants to be that put away pitch, but its not there yet. Its 17.1% SwStr% and 46.2% Zone% this year are both better than the pitch's career averages (9.5% and 42.4%, respectively), and a decline in spin rate (1,741 RPM vs. 1,897 last year) suggests that it really is less predictable (lower spin is better for changeups). Unfortunately, hitters clobber it when they make contact (.412/.459/.676). The pitch has potential, but there's still work to do.
His sinker has been used as a secondary pitch, with a decline in Zone% (46% vs. 51% career) accompanied by a whiff rate spike (11% vs. 5.3% career). Sinkers are rarely used in this way, contributing to an elevated 40.5% chase rate. However, the results aren't great. Eflin should probably shelve the pitch entirely and focus on his fastball-changeup-slider combination.
Eflin's environment also figures to work against him in the second half. First, the obvious ballpark issue. Citizen's Bank Park dramatically inflates power numbers, posting a FanGraphs HR factor of 111 in 2017. That was the second highest mark in the league. Eflin does nothing to limit airborne contact (37.2% GB% this year), so it's going to hurt when his 7.6% HR/FB regresses toward his 13.4% career rate.
Eflin has also benefited from a .284 BABIP this season, and his career mark of .281 suggests that it should be sustainable. Unfortunately, the atrocious defenders behind him make that a poor bet. Both 1B Carlos Santana and 2B Cesar Hernandez have been slightly below average this year with -2 Defensive Runs Saved each, but the other two infield positions have been worse. Shortstops Scott Kingery and J.P. Crawford have contributed -4 DRS each, combining for a very poor defensive SS. Third sacker Maikel Franco also leaves something to be desired with a glove (-6).
That's not great, but the team's outfield is worse. Rhys Hoskins has no business out there (-13 Outs Above Average) but has to play there every day. Nick Williams has also been well below average (-5 OAA). Odubel Herrera has been a relative bright spot (three OAA), but the team's -13 OAA overall is second to last in the majors.
In conclusion, Eflin has a strikeout spike only partially supported by peripheral stats and a HR/FB and BABIP bound for the bad kind of regression. The Phillies are a solid club, so he should earn his fair share of wins even after coming back to Earth. Just don't make the mistake of treating him as a must-start arm.
Verdict: Chump
Manny Machado (3B/SS, LAD) - 99% Owned
What's it like to play in the one percent of Yahoo! formats where Machado is on waivers? Are they novelty leagues where the objective is to lose? At any rate, Machado has been great this year (.316/.390/.571 with 24 HR and seven steals).
The 26-year old seems unlikely to keep up that level of production, but figures to continue being elite. Machado hasn't seen that many strikes being the only competent hitter on his team, posting a Zone% against of 41.1%. His eye isn't fantastic (30% chase rate), but his BB% (11.1%) is still comparable to his K% (12.1%). As a Dodger, he's likely to see more pitches to hit. His BB% should decline slightly as a result.
Machado's .312 BABIP is fairly close to his career mark of .302, but he doesn't have a high-BABIP profile. He doesn't hit many line drives (16.6% LD% this year), though his career rate (18.3%) suggests a few more moving forward. Likewise, he hits a ton of flies (44.9% FB% this year) and more pop-ups than you would like (11% IFFB% this season, 13.8% career).
His 41.6% Pull% on ground balls makes the shift a non-issue (.284 in 75 PAs against it this year), but he's still due for massive regression in his .336 BABIP on ground balls (.274 career). Most fantasy owners think that Machado can run, but he hasn't posted an above average Statcast Sprint Speed since 2015. This year, it's down to a pitiful 25.9 ft./sec. His 91.6mph average exit velocity on ground balls is elite, but it would be surprising if he maintained his current pace.
Machado's 16.4% HR/FB is on par with his career rate of 15.1%, and most of his underlying metrics are positive. He pulls a ton of his flies (30.8%) and always has (28.6% career). He hits the ball hard (95.2mph average airborne exit velocity) and always has (96.5mph last year, 94.9 in 2016). His 12% rate of Brls/BBE is a Statcast Era best, but last year's 10.5% mark suggests that he never exactly struggled in that regard.
To play devil's advocate, he has hit 17 of his 24 HR at Camden Yards. The park significantly inflates right-handed power (105 HR factor last year), while Dodger Stadium doesn't (96 HR factor). Still, hitting second for the Dodgers should produce more R+RBI than hitting third for Baltimore.
Machado has zero games at 3B this year, so he'll probably lose eligibility there in 2019. His -19 DRS at SS suggest that he may not stick there either, creating uncertainty in long-term keeper formats. Yes, I freely admit that I'm splitting hairs here. If you were lucky enough to draft Machado, enjoy the ride!
Verdict: Champ
