X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Niko Goodrum & Brandon Nimmo

There's a lot of fantasy analysis out there, and everybody has their own likes and dislikes when it comes to the numbers they look at. Personally, I can't stand Hard%. It was invented as a proxy to measure contact quality, but Statcast gives us specific numbers to measure the same thing much more precisely.

It's also taken out of context nearly all of the time. Raw Hard% is often cited as either a defense or refutation of a given player's HR/FB, but doing so is extremely problematic. Ground balls are never home runs no matter how hard they're hit, which is why Statcast separates grounders and airborne batted balls. The same split is available for Hard%, but I don't think I've ever seen it used. Likewise, Hard% does not trump foot speed or the shift as a predictor of a given player's BABIP.

All of that is a preamble to a fantasy analysis of Niko Goodrum and Brandon Nimmo. Contact quality is at the core of both of their profiles, but we won't be using Hard% to measure it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Niko Goodrum (OF/CIF/MIF, DET) - 10% Owned

Goodrum is putting up blah numbers (.246/.321/.466 with five HR and SB) for a blah team, taking the 26-year old off of the fantasy radar. However, a closer look reveals a good bit of upside here.

Let's begin with the power/speed combo Goodrum flashed on the farm. He hit .244/.332/.392 with five homers and 18 steals (four CS) in 238 PAs for Double-A Chattanooga in 2015. He walked a lot (11.8% BB%), a very positive sign for a guy who runs. His K% (21.4%) and BABIP (.299) were roughly average, suggesting a mediocre batting average to go with 20 HR and considerable SB potential.

Goodrum returned to Chattanooga in 2016, slashing .275/.357/.451 with six homers and eight steals (two CS) in 207 PAs. He struck out much more often (25.1% K%), but more than made up for it with an inflated BABIP (.352). He also continued to walk (10.6% BB%), maintaining the same general profile he had in his previous campaign.

Goodrum earned a shot at Triple-A Rochester in 2017, putting up his best season to date. He slashed .265/.309/.425 with 13 HR and 11 SB (and an unsightly seven CS) in 499 PAs. Both his K% (23.8%) and BB% (6%) declined relative to his Double-A performance, while his BABIP normalized somewhat to .326.

Double digit homers and steals automatically command fantasy attention, but environment makes Goodrum's performance look even better. Chattanooga is a hitter's park, inflating total runs scored (1.223), HR (1.110), and hits (1.110) from 2014-2016. Rochester did the exact opposite over the same time period, posting ballpark factors of 0.982, 0.905, and 0.979, respectively.

The Twins gave Goodrum a look in 2017, but he didn't play much at the MLB level until he joined the Tigers this season. His .308 BABIP might seem high, but his underlying peripherals suggest that he has been unfortunate so far this season.

First, Goodrum is only hitting .211 on grounders. He doesn't have a career baseline to compare it to, but his average exit velocity on ground balls is high (86mph) and he can run (28.7 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed). His 44.7% pull rate on grounders is way too low to care about the shift, so he should run BABIPs of at least .260 on the ground. Regression looks like his friend.

His 15.7% LD% is also on the low side. His rate bounced around in the minors, but generally landed around 19% or so. That's still below the league average, but even three additional percentage points would work wonders for his batting average considering his .769 BABIP on liners.

Baseball Savant's xStats metrics think that Goodrum should be hitting .257 with a .534 slugging percentage based on his launch angles and exit velocity, and the metric does not consider his plus speed at all. Throw in a couple of extra infield hits, and you're looking at a .265-.270 hitter. If you're concerned about his 26.7% K%, know that xStats are already calculated using a player's current rate.

That's more than playable in fantasy if he hits homers and steals bases. His 38.7% FB% is solid, giving him a floor of 15-20 HR before contact quality is considered. He's been hitting the ball with authority too, averaging 93.1mph on airborne batted balls with a borderline elite 13.3% rate of Brls/BBE. His 28.1% Pull% on fly balls is also above average, giving him the peripherals needed to support a 30 HR campaign at some point.

Goodrum has only been caught trying to steal once this season, so he appears to have figured out whatever hindered his success rate in the minors last year. The Tigers have bounced him all over their lineup, but he most often bats 5th. That could add some RBI to his reasonable batting average and HR/SB totals, making him a versatile fantasy asset who may qualify at every offensive position except catcher.

Verdict: Champ

 
Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) - 55% Owned

Nimmo got a chance to play with Yoenis Cespedes' latest trip to the DL, and he's taken advantage to the tune of a .280/.419/.568 line with seven homers and five steals (two CS) in 155 PAs. Nimmo's elite plate discipline (14.2% BB%, 22.2% chase rate this year) has never been questioned, but detractors have pointed to low FB% rates and SB totals as reasons to avoid him in fantasy.

It's true that Nimmo's never hit more than 12 HR or stolen more than 14 bases in a calendar year, but he's completely changed his approach in 2018. His 47.7% FB% towers over his 36.9% career mark, itself inflated by this season's 155 PAs. Last year, only 32.8% of Nimmo's batted balls were classified as flies. He's also pulling more fly balls than ever before (35.7% vs. 26% career and 12.8% last year).

His fly balls have additional oomph behind them as well. When Nimmo debuted in 2016, his average airborne exit velocity of 90mph was mediocre while his 1.9% rate of Brls/BBE was laughable. Last season, he accomplished league average marks in both metrics (92.7mph, 6.7% Brls/BBE) but lacked the volume of fly balls to do anything with them.

This season, his 96.8mph average airborne exit velocity ranks 33rd in MLB (minimum 50 batted balls). His 11.2% rate of Brls/BBE is also well above average. Nimmo's naysayers were right in that his profile before this year was never producing fantasy-relevant power numbers, but he's completely remade himself at the plate. This new version of Nimmo is well worth rostering.

That said, the new Nimmo is not a .280 hitter. Nimmo's fly ball approach has produced a startling number of pop-ups (19% IFFB% vs. 10.4% career and 5.1% last season), making his current .200 BABIP on fly balls impossible to sustain. His new approach also seems to have cost him a few line drives (20.5% LD%) relative to his career rate (24.2%).

Finally, his .286 BABIP on ground balls is higher than his career mark of .267 despite a running trend of lower exit velocities on ground balls (86.2mph in 2016, 85mph in 2017, 83.4mph this year). To be clear, his ground ball exit velocity is still above average. He can also run (28.4 ft./sec Statcast Sprint) and doesn't care about the shift with his 50% Pull% on ground balls.

Baseball Savant's xStats say that Nimmo deserved a .252 average so far this year. That probably goes up to .260 or so with a few extra speed-related hits, making him a slight drag on the average fantasy team. His BB% helps in this regard by lowering the total ABs he contributes to a team. After all, 0-for-2 with two walks hurts a lot less than 0-for-4.

Nimmo is currently leading off for the Mets, sapping some of the RBI potential that should accompany his power. While there is some risk that he reverts to his old ways, the new Nimmo deserves a home in the vast majority of leagues.

Verdict: Champ

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ryan Blaney20 mins ago

Scores Front Row Start At Dover
Jamal Murray4 hours ago

Struggles In Game 4
Anthony Davis4 hours ago

Has A Huge Game On Saturday
LeBron James4 hours ago

Looks Good In Game 4
Nikola Jokic4 hours ago

Has A Big Night On Saturday
Jimmy Butler5 hours ago

Without A Return Timeline
Grayson Allen6 hours ago

Uncertain For Game 4
Kyle Anderson6 hours ago

Questionable For Game 4
Khris Middleton6 hours ago

Expected To Play On Sunday
Damian Lillard8 hours ago

Officially Doubtful For Sunday
Giannis Antetokounmpo9 hours ago

Doubtful For Game 4
Tim Hardaway9 hours ago

Jr. Unlikely To Play On Sunday
Kawhi Leonard9 hours ago

Questionable Versus Dallas
NHL9 hours ago

Jets Recall Axel Jonsson-Fjallby
Luka Doncic9 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Game 4
NASCAR9 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Qualifies 16th For Sunday's Race At Dover Motor Speedway
Ryan Preece9 hours ago

Underwhelms During Practice At Dover Motor Speedway
Bobby McMann9 hours ago

Progressing Well
Joel Embiid9 hours ago

Questionable Again
Jimmie Johnson9 hours ago

What Should You Do With Jimmie Johnson In DFS This Weekend?
Carson Hocevar9 hours ago

Is Set To Make His First Cup Start At Dover Motor Speedway On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson9 hours ago

Questionable For Game 4
Mathew Barzal9 hours ago

Bags OT Winner Saturday
Denny Hamlin9 hours ago

Is Denny Hamlin A Must Play At Dover International Speedway?
Chase Briscoe9 hours ago

Why You Should Limit Your Exposure To Chase Briscoe In DFS This Weekend
NHL9 hours ago

Nick Robertson Moving To Fourth Line Saturday
Christopher Bell9 hours ago

Will Christopher Bell Bounce Back After Disastrous Talladega Weekend?
William Karlsson10 hours ago

Doesn't Skate, Expected To Play Game 3
Tyler Glasnow10 hours ago

Exits Saturday's Game With Cramping
John Hunter Nemechek12 hours ago

Tries To Let Talladega Carnage Go
Daniel Hemric12 hours ago

Begins 14th On Sunday at Dover
Auston Matthews12 hours ago

Skates On Saturday
Kaz Grala12 hours ago

Nearly Brings Up Rear For Rick Ware Racing
Michael McCarron12 hours ago

Fined 2K For Goalie Interference
Todd Gilliland12 hours ago

Tries To Continue Momentum From Talladega
Austin Dillon12 hours ago

May Have Uphill Battle At Dover
Trevor van Riemsdyk12 hours ago

Ruled Out For Game 4
NHL12 hours ago

Mavrik Bourque Could Make Postseason Debut Saturday
Spencer Stastney12 hours ago

Out Week To Week For Preds
Damian Lillard12 hours ago

In A Walking Boot
Igor Shesterkin13 hours ago

Continues Winning Ways On Friday
Mika Zibanejad13 hours ago

Collects Pair Of Assists In Game 3 Win
Trevor van Riemsdyk13 hours ago

Leaves Game 3 Early After Big Hit
Brenden Dillon13 hours ago

Suffers Hand Injury After Final Whistle
Jeremy Swayman13 hours ago

Set To Start Second Straight Game
T.J. Brodie13 hours ago

Will Play In Game 4
William Nylander13 hours ago

Appears Set To Make Playoff Debut Saturday
Kyle Bradish14 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Baltimore Rotation
Ricky Stenhouse Jr14 hours ago

. A Tournament DFS Play At Dover
Corey Lajoie14 hours ago

Slow In Practice, But Upside Is Still There At Dover
Joey Gallo14 hours ago

Headed To 10-Day Injured List With Shoulder Sprain
Daniel Suarez14 hours ago

Surprisingly Slow At Dover This Weekend
Pete Fairbanks14 hours ago

Tests Have Come Back Clean On Pete Fairbanks
Justin Haley14 hours ago

Has No Speed At Dover This Weekend
Corey Heim15 hours ago

Qualifies 32nd For Cup Series Debut At Dover
Troy Franklin15 hours ago

Broncos Trade Up To Select Oregon Receiver Troy Franklin
Zac Gallen15 hours ago

Diamondbacks Optimistic About Zac Gallen's Injury
Rafael Devers15 hours ago

Back At Third Base, Masataka Yoshida Starting
George Springer15 hours ago

Resting Against Dodgers
Max Muncy16 hours ago

Gavin Lux Sitting Saturday
Bradley Beal18 hours ago

Leads Suns With 28 Points In Game 3
Anthony Edwards18 hours ago

Ties Franchise Mark With Another 30-Point Effort
Tyrese Haliburton18 hours ago

Completes Big Effort With Overtime Game-Winner
Khris Middleton18 hours ago

Goes Off For 42 Points Friday
Anthony Davis19 hours ago

Questionable With Wrist Injury
Yandy Díaz1 day ago

X-Rays Negative On Yandy Diaz's Hand
Jhoan Duran1 day ago

Making Another Rehab Appearance Saturday
John Means1 day ago

Needs One More Rehab Start
Jake Burger1 day ago

Completes Full Workout Friday
Zac Gallen1 day ago

Dealing With Hamstring Tightness
Paul Sewald1 day ago

Likely Needs Another Rehab Game
Blake Snell1 day ago

Resumes Playing Catch Friday
Deebo Samuel1 day ago

49ers Set To Keep Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk?
J.P. Crawford1 day ago

Not Expected To Return When Eligible
Luke McCaffrey1 day ago

Selected By Commanders 100th Overall
Jalen McMillan1 day ago

Heads To Tampa Bay
Tip Reiman1 day ago

Cardinals Take Tip Reiman At No. 82
Roman Wilson1 day ago

Selected 84th Overall By Steelers
Blake Corum1 day ago

Rams Select Blake Corum With 83rd Pick
Jermaine Burton1 day ago

Taken At No. 80 By Cincinnati
Yandy Díaz1 day ago

Yandy Diaz Hit By Pitch, Leaves Game Early
Jasson Domínguez1 day ago

Jasson Dominguez A Few Weeks Away From Rehab Games
Alex Cobb1 day ago

Still Feeling Soreness In Shoulder, Will See Doctor
Trey Benson1 day ago

Cardinals Select Trey Benson With The 66th Pick
Malachi Corley1 day ago

Jets Trade Up To Select Malachi Corley
Bobby Witt Jr.1 day ago

Hits Triple, Has Three-RBI Day
Ben Sinnott1 day ago

Taken At No. 53 On Friday Night
Adonai Mitchell1 day ago

Colts Snag Adonai Mitchell At No. 52
Jonathon Brooks1 day ago

Panthers Trade Up To Select Jonathon Brooks
New Orleans Saints1 day ago

Saints Take Kool-Aid McKinstry At No. 41
Keon Coleman1 day ago

Bills Select Keon Coleman At Pick 33
Vaughn Grissom1 day ago

Could Be Activated On Tuesday
Deebo Samuel1 day ago

Bills, Patriots Unlikely To Trade For Deebo Samuel
Nicolas Hague1 day ago

Not Ready To Return On Saturday
Justus Annunen1 day ago

Available On Friday
Rasmus Sandin1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Nick Jensen1 day ago

Could Be Back In Action Friday
Tennessee Titans1 day ago

JC Latham To Play Left Tackle For Tennessee
Matthew Stafford1 day ago

Seeking Reworked Contract
Deebo Samuel2 days ago

Bills Have Interest In Trading For Deebo Samuel
Jacoby Brissett2 days ago

Drake Maye To Compete With Jacoby Brissett
Jonathon Brooks2 days ago

Cowboys High On Jonathon Brooks
Alex Perez2 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Matheus Nicolau2 days ago

Returns To Action At UFC Vegas 91
Ariane da Silva2 days ago

Ariane Lipski Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Karine Silva2 days ago

Looks For Ninth Victory In A Row
David Onama2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 91
Jonathan Pearce2 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Uros Medic3 days ago

A Massive Favorite At UFC Vegas 91
Tim Means3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 91
Austen Lane3 days ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Jhonata Diniz3 days ago

Making UFC Debut
Bogdan Guskov3 days ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Vegas 91
Ryan Spann3 days ago

Looks To Snap Losing Skid At UFC Vegas 91
Tyler Reddick6 days ago

Survives At Talladega For First Win Of 2024
Brad Keselowski6 days ago

Finishes Second At Talladega After Last-Lap Wreck
Anthony Alfredo6 days ago

Gets Best Finish For Beard Motorsports Since 2022
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

Free UFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 5

Well, that was a lot of surprises last week, and a much-needed set of good showings for XFL teams against the USFL. In what seemed to be a horrible week for everyone, I started off 2-0 after the Battlehawks game and fell to 2-6 by the end of the weekend. Ouch. I am going to... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 5: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

Entering Week 5 of the UFL season, just one team remains unblemished. Birmingham will be on the road against the 1-3 Houston Roughnecks on Saturday night. San Antonio travels within the state to take on the imperfect Arlington Renegades at the same time. The game of the week is on Sunday as St. Louis plays... Read More


Keon Coleman- Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

NFL Draft Predictions - Second and Third Round Mock Draft (2024)

Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft is in the books! The good news is all the draft action will pick back up tonight at 7 pm ET as Rounds 2-3 of the draft will begin. There are still plenty of good players on the board who could have a big impact on fantasy football... Read More


2024 NFL Draft: Biggest Winners and Losers of Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The 2024 NFL Draft is officially underway and our staff is already busy digging into Round 1. RotoBaller's Kyle Lindemann shares his biggest winners and losers from the First Round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM... Read More


Mike Evans - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 Fantasy Football Blind Resumes – WR Edition

At this point in the NFL offseason, many fantasy football goers are not necessarily thinking about the fantasy season. However, it's never too early to start looking at stats and identify which players you want to target in drafts this summer/fall. Sometimes just getting an idea of where players are going could be really helpful... Read More


UFL DFS PICKS, FANTASY FOOTBALL, DRAFTKINGS, FANDUEL

UFL DFS Lineup Picks: DraftKings Daily Fantasy Fantasy Advice for Week 5

Welcome to Week 5 of the inaugural UFL season, RotoBallers! The Birmingham Stallions remain undefeated, and they'll take on the Houston Roughnecks in the only matchup this week with a spread of more than three points. The 3-1 San Antonio Brahmas will face off with the winless Arlington Renegades in a Texas showdown, the 3-1... Read More


NFL Draft - 2024

2024 NFL Draft Grades For Every First Round Pick

As we exit the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, it's fun to offer up "instant reactions" to the impactful decisions teams made with precious first-round draft capital. Many expected this to be a draft that was jam-packed with quarterback and wide receiver selections, and Thursday night didn't disappoint, as QBs went off the... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Draft Results - Malik Nabers Fantasy Football Outlook

After months of waiting, Malik Nabers finally has his NFL team. The LSU prospect was in contention for WR1 in the class and went only two picks after Marvin Harrison Jr. The Giants have desperately needed a playmaking receiver to elevate the offense. Nabers has all the speed in the world and a thick frame... Read More


Adonai Mitchell - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Draft - Predicting The Next QB, RB, WR, and TE Selected (Round 2)

The first round of the 2024 NFL draft was loaded with surprises. A record-breaking wait on defense, some winners and losers, and an early Michael Penix Jr. appearance headlined the night. There are still plenty of exciting talents at skill positions floating around. Who will be the next QB, RB, WR, and TE selected in... Read More


Kirk Cousins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Draft Instant Reaction: Round 1 Winners and Losers For Fantasy Football

The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft is now in the books. It was a night full of surprises, with six quarterbacks going in the first 12 picks. Thursday really shook things up across the league, so it's time to parse through what happened and make some sense of things. Below are some of... Read More


Michael Penix Jr. - CFB DFS Picks, Daily College Fantasy Football, NFL Draft Rookies

2024 NFL Draft - Worst Draft Picks In The First Round

Some teams made some really good picks on Thursday night in the first round of the NFL Draft. Other teams...well, let's just say that some teams made some baffling decisions. These decisions could prove to be smart moves, or they could set these organizations back in a big way. Here are the worst picks from... Read More


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

2024 Fantasy Football Blind Resumes – Running Back Edition

Fantasy football drafts won't take place for a couple of months, but it's never too early to get into the fantasy mindset after a wild offseason. Many star running backs like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Aaron Jones found new homes while Joe Mixon was traded to the Houston Texans. Those moves will certainly affect where each player will go next season. Luckily, on Underdog Fantasy, we can... Read More


UFL DFS PICKS, FANTASY FOOTBALL, DRAFTKINGS, FANDUEL

UFL DFS Value Plays: Week 5 Bargain Bin for DraftKings Including Quinten Dormady, Jacob Saylors, Jahcour Pearson, More

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of RotoBaller's UFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players in DraftKings' Week 5 UFL contests. Each week during the UFL 2024 season and postseason, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit for DraftKings'... Read More