X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

The Open and Shut Case for Drafting a QB Late

Let me start by saying that I'm not sold on Zero RB, Zero WR or Zero anything going into drafts. I'm not even sure why "Best Player Available" is considered a strategy. Isn't that just common sense?

One thing I am certain of is that taking a QB in the first few rounds is completely unnecessary. I won't go so far as to call it a waste of a pick, but try convincing anyone who burned a first rounder on Andrew Luck last year otherwise. In a world where a QB can throw for 4,000 yards and 29 TD the previous season, yet be selected as the QB14 in drafts, it's safe to say there are plenty of good options available even in the double digit rounds.

Let's look at some recent performances by early round busts and some gems that saved fantasy owners' skins in the later picks. One glance and you will probably be bumping several QBs down several notches in your draft rankings.

Note: ADP values and draft results courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Underperforming Quarterbacks in 2015

Let's start with the busts. In the typical fantasy football draft in the week preceding the 2015 season, here are the first three quarterbacks drafted and their ADP: 1.10 Andrew Luck, 2.09 Aaron Rodgers, 4.07 Peyton Manning. I could pretty much just drop the mic and end this section right now, but let's use some actual statistical analysis to prove what you already know.

All three could be qualified as busts. Don't play the injury card to justify their rotten seasons either. In the games Andrew Luck did play before getting injured, he had five TD compared to seven INT in his first three contests, ending up with a 15/12 TD/INT rate for the year. Manning was even worse, completing less than 60% of his passes and managing a wretched 9/17 TD/INT rate. Of course, it doesn't have those stats etched on his Super Bowl ring, so no skin off his back. Just those who burned an early draft pick on him expecting 40+ TD again. Here's a visual representation of the first five QBs drafted on average in 2015, their final stats and overall fantasy ranking.

2015 QB ADP

As you can see, only Drew Brees actually retained value worthy of his ADP. At age 37, there may be some cause for concern as Peyton Manning dropped off a cliff at age 39, but it seems unlikely that this will be the season. Rodgers salvaged a top 10 ranking even without Jordy Nelson, but the question is whether he was worth an early second round pick.

 

Later Round QBs that Returned Big Value in 2015

As you will see below, there were several QBs drafted significantly later who provided even more value. Roethlisberger was close to matching his pre-season value and may have done better if not for the absences of some key skill players such as Leveon Bell and Martavis Bryant at times. Now let's look at the quarterbacks who finished with the most fantasy points and where they were drafted.

2015 QB rank

People have long predicted a breakout season like this for Newton, although maybe not quite to the extent that it actually occurred. One thing you may notice is that three of the top five QB for fantasy purposes made contributions with their feet. Palmer is pretty much a statue with a cannon arm, but it's an accurate arm so he more than made up for his lack of mobility.

This phenomenon is a new one, as drafting a dependable QB early used to be as common as the old axiom "Always take a running back first." For reference, here's how the same tables worked in 2014. As expected, Manning was the first QB taken off the boards after a record-setting season in Denver. He justified it with another excellent performance, as did most of the players on here.

2014 QB ADP

You'll notice that the top five finishers at QB are not surprises, although Andrew Luck finished stronger than expected. He more than made up for that last season. Quarterback used to be the position where you did not want to wait too long and take a chance on an unproven signal caller. Here are the top QBs from 2014 in fantasy terms. Nobody here remotely resembles the pedigree of a Blake Bortles.

2014 QB rank

 

High Quality QBs to Target Later in 2016 Drafts

So, what has changed? We hear about the league becoming more pass-heavy and to some extent that is true. The other factor is that more QBs are using their mobility to add rushing value. Even Kirk Cousins scored five rushing TD last season - more than LeSean McCoy or Eddie Lacy! Cam Newton and Russell Wilson will be long gone by the time you should be thinking QB, but when a player like Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota or Tyrod Taylor are available, don't just look at passing stats and think of the added value you're getting as a rusher.

Let's say you're sold on waiting for a QB. Who are the top targets in the middle rounds? Let’s take a look at the QBs available outside the top ten at the position. All these players are available, on average, starting in the ninth round or later. All statistics represent last year’s output, not projections for this year.

2015 QB late targets

It may take some time to get used to the idea of having Cousins or Taylor as your starter. When you see the type of talent you can assemble at RB/WR/TE while waiting on your QB, you'll cozy up to them pretty quickly. With a slew of 4,000 yard passers and dual-threat quarterbacks available in the 10th round, why wouldn't you wait?

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59 At Corales Puntacana Championship
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For Second At Corales Puntacana Championship
Beau Hossler

Finishes Tied For 60 At Valero Texas Open
Doug Ghim

Finishes Tied For 18 At the Valero Texas Open
Jordan Spieth

Finishes Tied For 18 At RBC Heritage
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For Eighth At RBC Heritage
George Kirby

"Feeling Great", Could Throw Again On Sunday
Tyler Fitzgerald

Returning To Starting Nine
Josh Lowe

Progressing Well, Could Play In Rehab Games On Saturday
Shane McClanahan

Begins "Throwing-Like" Activities
Patrik Laine

Remains Day-To-Day
Gabriel Vilardi

On Track To Return Wednesday
Brandon Hagel

Ruled Out For Game 5
Marcus Johansson

Returns To Action Tuesday
Cole Ragans

Won't Start On Wednesday
Dylan Moore

Placed On 10-Day Injured List With Hip Inflammation
Jonas Siegenthaler

Considered A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Brett Pesce

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Back In Tuesday's Lineup
Frederik Andersen

Unavailable Tuesday
Aaron Nesmith

Upgraded To Available
Las Vegas Raiders

Jack Bech A Strong Candidate To Be An Immediate Starter
Las Vegas Raiders

Zamir White Competing For Depth Role
New York Jets

Mason Taylor To Immediately Be Atop Jets Tight End Depth Chart
Bennedict Mathurin

Cleared For Game 5
Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Setting Up As Post-Hype Sleeper In 2025?
Denver Broncos

Dre Greenlaw Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold To Take Over 90% Of The Snaps
Tennessee Titans

Titans In No Rush To Trade Will Levis
Daulton Varsho

Reinstated From Injured List And Starting On Tuesday
Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy Says He Knows He's Ready To Start For Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Picking Up Fifth-Year Option On Dax Hill
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Apply Unrestricted Free-Agent Tender To J.K. Dobbins
Seattle Seahawks

Jaren Hall Cut Loose By Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Compare Josh Simmons To Christian Darrisaw, Rashawn Slater
Denver Broncos

Pat Bryant Compared To Michael Thomas
Denver Broncos

RJ Harvey Could Do It All For Broncos
Carolina Panthers

Tetairoa McMillan Likely To Man The X Spot For Panthers
Green Bay Packers

Packers, Jaire Alexander Continue To Discuss Potential Reunion
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Discussed George Pickens With Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs To Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis
Washington Commanders

Matt Gays Signs One-Year Deal With Commanders
San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle Signs Four-Year Extension With 49ers
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Records Third Consecutive Double-Double
Brandin Podziemski

Hits Six Treys During 26-Point Performance
Jimmy Butler III

Leads Warriors In Scoring Monday Night
Jarrett Allen

Has Double-Double, Six Steals In Blowout Win
Brandon Boston Jr.

Recovering From Ankle Surgery
Kelly Olynyk

Undergoes Heel Procedure
Aaron Nesmith

Probable For Tuesday's Action
Nathan MacKinnon

Has Two Points In Losing Effort
Martin Necas

Records Two Assists In Game 5 Loss
Mikko Rantanen

Tallies Three Points In Monday's Win
Wyatt Johnston

Leads Stars To Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Returns To Winning Ways
Anton Lundell

Earns Two Points Monday
Ryan Gerard

Going For A Texas Trifecta Of Sorts
Brandon Hagel

Departs Loss Early
Joe Highsmith

Hoping To Make More Putts In Texas
Eric Cole

Expecting Big Things In Texas
Brian Campbell

May Go Under The Radar At CJ Cup
Riley Greene

Homers Twice On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

Exits Monday's Win Early
Los Angeles Chargers

Tre Harris Expected To Fill X Role For Chargers
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active For Game 4
Isaiah Stewart

Uncertain For Game 5
Michael Porter Jr.

Expected To Play In Game 5
Brandon Nimmo

Has Career Game
Russell Westbrook

Questionable For Tuesday Night
Tyler Glasnow

Going On The Injured List
Jaylen Brown

Back On The Injury Report
Jrue Holiday

Out Again On Tuesday Night
Bennedict Mathurin

Questionable For Game 5
Damian Lillard

May Not Play Next Season
Luis Arraez

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Remain Out Tuesday
Brenden Dillon

Unavailable Tuesday
Luke Hughes

Not Ready To Return For Game 5
Darius Garland

Remains Out On Monday
Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back Returns To Stars Lineup Monday
Miro Heiskanen

To Miss Game 5
Jordan Westburg

Placed On Injured List
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go For Game 4
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Luke Weaver

In Line To Get The Bulk Of Save Opportunities Moving Forward
Devin Williams

Removed From Closer Role
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Austin Hays

Smacks Two Homers On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF