RADIO
JB investigates Week 14 trends in Starting Pitcher K-rates. These risers and fallers present buying and selling opportunities in your 2016 fantasy baseball leagues.
RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days. The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here.
Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.
Editor's Note: RotoBaller offers the best Premium MLB Subscription - only $1.99 per week. All the tools you need to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Under-the-Radar Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, plus daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids.
K-Rate Risers
By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.
What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, or seeing their fantasy value quickly declining, etc. This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher. Because this tool is refreshed daily, the numbers in this article may be slightly off from the tool. Now, let's get rowdy.
Michael Pineda, NYY
Season K-Rate: 26%, Last 30 K-Rate: 31%
Finally an excuse to analyze one of the biggest head scratchers in the MLB. Pineda started the season off with a terrible April and May, posting a 6.33 ERA/1.59 WHIP and 7.52 ERA/1.71 WHIP respectively. Despite the terrible surface numbers, Pineda was still missing plenty of bats (59 K in 53.1 IP) which led many to believe a turnaround was on the horizon. That turnaround came in the month of June, which saw Pineda boast a 2.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a 12.3 K/9 over six impressive starts. Now, I know he just got a little roughed up by the White Sox, but we are going to exclude that from our heads right now and focus on this stellar June. Two things that I saw vastly improve for Pineda in June were: his performance when behind in the count and the overall results from his four seam fastball.
As you may know, Pineda absolutely pounds the strike zone. When he gets behind in the count, as you can imagine, he really pounds the zone. Through the first two months of the season, his BA per pitch Heat Map for when behind the count had more red than Communist Soviet Union.
But now take a look at the same heat map for the month of June, and it really seems like he regained confidence in his command, and his ability to get back into an at bat without tossing taters down the pipe.
Pineda's number one out pitch is undoubtedly the slider. His slider has held opponents to a measly .209 BA, while owning a crazy 41.3 K%. He throws this pitch 37.2% of the time, which is high enough for fourth in the league among starting pitchers, directly behind Chris Archer. But with a great pitch like this, why was Pineda struggling so much? Because he was unable to set hitters up for it. In order for a slider to be successful, the pitcher must be able to establish the fastball in to catch the hitter off guard with the change of speed and movement. Unfortunately for Pineda, his four seam fastball (thrown 47.1%) ranks dead last among all qualified starting pitchers with a -14.6 wFA. The first two months of the season, hitters were teeing off on the cheese.
Although it may not look like a huge difference, the month of June saw much better results from much less hard contact, and with that devastating slider it was all Pineda needed. 
The increase in strikeouts over the last 30 days from Michael Pineda is not impressive to me. He's been piling up the Ks all season. The smart pitching when behind in the count, and his fastballs surviving long enough to set up his slider were the real signs pointing towards a much improved second half of the season for the 6'7" rightie. It may be too late to get a fantastic deal on him in your fantasy league, but with his current 5.38 ERA, any deal you work out will be well worth the squeeze down the stretch.
Verdict: Buy
Bud Norris, LAD
Season K-Rate: 20%, Last 30 K-Rate: 25%
Ever since a horrid month of April (8.74 ERA), Norris has been on fire. Since May 1st, he has allowed only 14 ER over 58.2 innings. He has also recently been shipped to Los Angeles to help bolster a limping Dodgers rotation, and getting out of a Braves uniform is always a plus for fantasy.
Much of Norris' success this season can be attributed to keeping the ball on the ground. His GB% is up seven points from his career average, while his FB% is down eight. This has translated to a career low 0.77 HR/9 which would rank 20th among qualified starters.
Norris has never posted a 25% K rate in his eight major league seasons, so I do not believe this recent uptick in whiffs is going to stick around all season. However I do believe if he can continue to keep the ball in the park, with his new found run support, he will manage standard league fantasy relevance for the rest of the 2016 season. If you don't remember, this guy is only two years removed from a 15 win season with a 3.65 ERA in the AL East. While I won't be out trying to make trades for him, if Bud Norris is sitting on your waiver wire, you should probably make room for him.
Verdict: Buy (Waiver Wire)
K-Rate Fallers
Jeremy Hellickson, PHI
Season K-Rate: 22%, Last 30 K-Rate: 15%
Hellickson is having a quietly successful 2016 campaign, holding a 3.92 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 18 starts. He has been great over the last month, and hasn't allowed a HR over his last three starts after giving up 16 bombs through his first 15 outings.
Despite a vastly improved change up that is generating the same K% as Michael Pineda's slide, Hellickson was certainly enjoying swing and misses beyond his actual ability through the first two months of the season. His career average K rate is 18% and this current dip in strikeouts is simply regression back to the mean. But, the good news here is that Hellickson was also quite unlucky with the long ball to start the season. His current 15.8 HR/FB% is almost five points higher than his career mark, and it seems that we are now seeing a positive move in this category back to it's own mean. For every action is an equal reaction.
Hellickson is currently producing a fantasy value that is slightly out of standard league output, but has been amidst plenty of trade deadline rumors as the Phillies are obviously open to selling. If Hellickson were to land with a contender, such as say the Red Sox, despite leaving the NL East his 6-6 record would be sure to improve. For that reason, I am holding out on the previous Rookie of the Year.
Verdict: Hold (Trade Deadline)
Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
Season K-Rate: 20%, Last 30 K-Rate: 14%
Let me just lead with this stat; in three of Eovaldi's last five starts, his strikeouts has equaled his HR allowed. Yes, disgusting. Eovaldi is allowing an absurd 21.8 HR/FB% this season compared to an 8.9% career average. Obviously there is no way this is sustainable, thankfully, but it also tells us that he has just been far too hittable in 2016. Two seasons ago, Eovaldi allowed 14 HR in 200 innings. So far this year, he has already allowed 19.
A good example of his woes this season, we can look at Eovaldi's splitter, which he has thrown 6% more than in 2015. Keep in mind that a splitter is generally used to keep the ball on the ground, which is how his teammate Masahiro Tanaka is finding success this year.
As you can see, the pitch has completely lost its effectiveness from last season, and literally is attracting the fattest part of opponents bats. The splitter is the extreme example, as its value has decreased from 9.4 wSF all the way down to -0.4 wSF in one season, but the same narrative fits all of Eovaldi's pitches in 2016. He has always possessed great raw stuff, but none of it is working this season. Like Hellickson, Eo was clearly overachieving in the strikeout department, and is quickly regressing back to his career average 17% K rate. But unlike Hellickson, he is making no improvements on the barrage of balls he's allowing to be hit into the bleachers.
Verdict: Sell (Drop/Ignore)
Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)
Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
