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One of the biggest stories of the 2014 NFL season was that of Adrian Peterson missing 15 games as a result of an off-field incident involving one of his children. There was a ton of off-season speculation regarding the relationship between Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings, most of which centered around whether or not he would be playing for the team in 2015. With their issues now resolved and the incident laid to rest, we can finally get back to talking about football. It’s not all about AP either; the acquisition of Mike Wallace and another year of Teddy Bridgewater should give this offense a nice boost in 2015.
Offseason Acquisitions: WR Mike Wallace, WR Stefon Diggs, TE MyCole Pruitt
No Longer on the Roster: WR Greg Jennings, QB Matt Cassel
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Quarterback
People seem to forget that rookie Teddy Bridgewater wasn’t actually the starter at the beginning of 2014. Matt Cassel began the year under center for three games before the team switched to the rookie. Once Bridgewater took over, his numbers ended up being respectable for a first-year player--he posted 2,919 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Comparatively, fellow rookie Blake Bortles had a similar yardage total at 2,908 but managed to throw an additional six interceptions on the season. No one expected Bridgewater to burst onto the scene the way Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III did, but he was perfectly serviceable in his own right.
The thing is, the offense was never expecting Adrian Peterson to get suspended for an entire year. The offense has always and will always run through him for as long as he’s on the team. That should take a lot of the pressure off of Bridgewater going forward, allowing him to progress more naturally as a player. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner should continue to help him develop into a better quarterback as well, as he’s had success with multiple QBs in the past. As far as fantasy is concerned, Bridgewater deserves a look in two-quarterback leagues but doesn’t possess enough upside to be viewed as relevant in a standard league. I think we’re still another year or two away before we’re talking about Bridgewater as a starter in a 10- or 12-team league. He should be solid enough to maintain QB2 status throughout the course of the season.
Wide Receivers
Remember when the combination of Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings was viewed as a duo with sleeper consideration? Yeah…that wasn’t fun for anybody. With Jennings off to complicate things in Miami and Patterson plummeting down the depth chart, we’re left with a much more favorable pairing in Charles Johnson and Mike Wallace.
Johnson finished 2014 with just 475 yards and two touchdowns on 58 targets. Those aren’t overly flattering numbers by any means, so the newly-acquired Wallace certainly deserves more fantasy attention. Wallace arrives from Miami where he finished 2014 with 862 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those 10 touchdowns tied the career high he posted in 2010 while a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He’s always been viewed as a big play guy due largely in part to his tremendous speed, and a Norv Turner offense is one that can properly utilize a player with his abilities. I actually believe Wallace to be undervalued this year. His best days are certainly behind him when you consider that Ben Roethlisberger was by far the best QB he’s ever played with, but that doesn’t mean he can’t bounce back into your lineup in 2015. People forget that he actually finished last season as the 18th-best fantasy receiver in standard scoring formats. I wouldn’t say the Vikings offense is an automatic upgrade over Miami’s, but I don’t think it’s a downgrade either. I think Wallace could very well end up as a top 25 WR by year’s end, easily putting him in flex consideration. His ranking in the late 20's and early 30's at the position seems a little harsh.
I envision a slightly better year for Charles Johnson, which would make him a viable bye week fill-in off of your bench, while Mike Wallace is a flex with WR2 upside. This seems to be an overlooked pairing that you can get at solid value once your fantasy draft rolls around.
Running Backs
At last we’ve arrived at the most important piece of the puzzle that is the Minnesota offense, Adrian Peterson. I’m not going to bore you by rattling off a bunch of stats that tell you how good Adrian Peterson has been prior to his lost season last year. If you’ve gotten this far into your fantasy prep, you already know how good AP is. Instead, we’re going to focus on one of the biggest discussions of the summer--where should he be drafted?
You can make a case for at least five different running backs at number one overall in Peterson, Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, and Eddie Lacy. Each possesses risk and all have a legit shot at being the number one overall player. The argument for Peterson is simple in that he’s the best running back in the NFL as far as pure talent is concerned. His detractors will claim that he hasn’t played in a full season and that he’s already 30 years old. To that I say, so what? If anything, a year away from football saved him a year's worth of hits, essentially shaving a year off of that dreaded 30-year old running back status. Lest we forget the last time we wrote off Adrian Peterson when he was coming off of a torn ACL. AP almost broke the single-season rushing title in 2012 when people weren’t even sure if he’d play Week 1. This is a long way of telling you to forget about the anti-Peterson argument as far as being away from the game is concerned. It’s a crutch argument that only holds weight when we’re talking about a player missing a whole year due to injury. In the case of Peterson, he’s already shown that he doesn’t even need to be fully healthy in the summer to explode in the fall.
Filling in for the suspended Peterson, running backs Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon combined for 277 rushing attempts, good for 1,109 yards and nine touchdowns (Asiata actually had all nine of those TDs but that won’t be relevant in a second). If those numbers came from one player, that running back would have ranked eighth in rushing yards and tied for third in rushing touchdowns. Obviously you can’t just combine two players into one, but just think about what Adrian freakin’ Peterson would have done with that usage. He would have certainly obliterated that 1,109 mark and then some.
For some added insurance as to how good AP can be this year, just take a look at what Minnesota running backs did in the passing game in 2014. Asiata and McKinnon combined for 60 receptions on 104 targets, showing that a Norv Turner offense will throw the ball to its running back with frequency. We all know how much better Peterson is than the likes of Asiata and McKinnon, so I think it’s safe to say that 80 receptions is in play for him this season. That gives him a nice boost in PPR leagues.
The overall point on Peterson is that you shouldn’t hesitate in taking him just because he missed time due to a suspension. He’s still one of if not the best running back in the league. If I have the number one pick this year, I’m taking Peterson based on his talent and projected usage.
Tight Ends
Say it with me, kids. “I will not be burned by Kyle Rudolph this year. I will NOT be burned by Kyle Rudolph this year. I WILL NOT BE BURNED BY KYLE RUDOLPH THIS YEAR!” Feel better? Because I do. The dude simply can’t stay healthy for any extended amount of time, and even when he’s playing he’s not as effective as we were led to believe he would be. It’s a real shame when you consider how successful the tight end position has been under Norv Turner. I’ll let Rudolph surprise me if he’s able but even still, I’ll look elsewhere for fantasy production.
Rookies
The Vikings didn’t really add anyone of fantasy interest in the draft this season. They selected wide receiver Stefon Diggs and tight end MyCole Pruitt, but those are just names for depth purposes right now.
Summary
As you probably expected, the bulk of Minnesota’s fantasy relevance is deeply rooted in running back Adrian Peterson. His presence should take a ton of pressure off of sophomore QB Teddy Bridgewater, resulting in a bounce-back year for AP. Like I said, you can make a case for five different running backs at number one, but Peterson is the guy for me. Throw in Mike Wallace’s status as a flex play with WR2 upside and this is a team with a fairly straightforward path to fantasy relevance.
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