Buffalo Bills: 2015 Fantasy Football Analysis and Team Outlook

Hear that sound? That’s Rex Ryan yammering about how good the Bills are going to be all the way from New York to Buffalo. Jokes aside, the Buffalo Bills should be a much-improved team in the upcoming season.

New head coach Rex Ryan might get picked on for how boisterous he was while coaching the New York Jets, but he’s an upgrade over Doug Marrone. Throw in the additions of LeSean McCoy and a (potentially) healthy Percy Harvin and there’s reason for cautious optimism.

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• 2025 fantasy football rankings
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• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
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• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
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• NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
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Acquisitions: QB Matt Cassel, QB Tyrod Taylor, RB LeSean McCoy, and WR Percy Harvin, TE Charles Clay

No Longer on the Roster: QB Kyle Orton, RB C.J. Spiller

New Coaches: HC Rex Ryan, OC Greg Roman, DC Dennis Thurman

Quarterbacks

It’s rare for a team to make it all the way to July and still have a three-horse race at the quarterback position. The Bills are currently deciding between E.J. Manuel, Matt Cassel, and Tyrod Taylor. As it stands, the competition has been regarded as being the most intense between Manuel and Taylor with rumors that Cassel might not even make the final roster. That last part might seem like a legit possibility, but it sounds to me like it’s also a bit of a stretch. Look, you know exactly what you’re getting out of Cassel by now. He’s been in the league for 10 seasons and has started for three different teams. Cassel possesses the lowest upside out of the three, but he’s also the least likely to hurt the offense. He’s a veteran who is competent enough to run an offense that will certainly be utilizing a heavy run game through LeSean McCoy. Cassel doesn’t need to be part of the competition, because he is what he is at this point in his career.

The open competition the Bills are alluding to is really to evaluate whether or not Manuel has improved as a starter and to see what they have in Taylor. Manuel has been sporadic at best, struggling with both injuries and inconsistent play. That being said, the most recent reports suggest that if the season were to start today, Manuel would be the starter. As interesting as the idea of relatively unknown QB Tyrod Taylor taking the reigns would be, it seems unlikely at this point. Manuel seems to be atop the depth chart, and Taylor would still have to beat out the veteran Cassel. Overall, this is a situation that is much more interesting for NFL fans than it is fantasy owners. As a football fan, it’s a fun story to follow along with over the course of the summer, but the fantasy analyst in me sees no value in whoever emerges as the starter.

Wide Receivers

The only thing that matters in regard to who starts at quarterback for the Bills is whether or not that individual is competent enough to get the ball to the team’s wide receivers. If you were to compare the numbers of Sammy Watkins with E.J. Manuel throwing him the ball versus Kyle Orton (who is no longer on the team), you’d notice that Watkins was slightly better with Orton under center. The problem is, Manuel only started four games last year. During that time, Watkins really only had one big game which was week two against the Dolphins. Watkins had 117 yards and a touchdown and didn’t crack the 100+ yard mark again until they played the Vikings in week seven. That Vikings game was Orton’s third as the starter, and the two continued their success the following week with Watkins stringing together his only back-to-back 100+ yard performance all season. All that being said, even with more consistent quarterback play, Watkins himself was sporadic. He threw up duds of just 19 yards with Manuel and 11 yards with Orton. The flashier numbers might have come from the veteran, but his play was still suspect throughout the season. Watkins should be viewed as a flex play with enough upside to end up as a low-end WR2.

The Bills ended up acquiring Percy Harvin through roundabout means. Harvin was traded to the New York Jets before ultimately signing with Buffalo as a free agent. When healthy, Harvin is a tremendous talent and even garnered attention as an MVP candidate during his last season in Minnesota. Sometimes the caveat of “when healthy” can be viewed as an afterthought, but that’s not the case with Harvin. He has missed an astounding 25 games over the last three seasons. That’s a little over a year and a half of playing time. Throw in the fact that the team’s number one receiver, Sammy Watkins, already struggles partly due to poor quarterback play, and you’re looking at a version of Percy Harvin that isn’t all that appetizing. Luckily, Harvin’s current draft value is rather low, ranking as a WR5 at best. It’s an appropriate ranking for someone who will have to deal with major health concerns and tons of question marks regarding who will be throwing him the ball. At that point in the draft, you’re basically just looking for someone with high-upside. Harvin would qualify in that regard, but he also has an insane amount of risk. He’s worth the gamble if you can afford the roster spot, just don’t hold onto him too long if he doesn’t perform right away.

Running Backs

One of the most shocking moves of the offseason was the Philadelphia Eagles trading LeSean McCoy to the Buffalo Bills. The move is a stunner for the Eagles but the equivalent of Triple Yahtzee for the Bills, who have utilized a non-traditional running back-by-committee over the last few seasons with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller carrying the load. We’ll get to Jackson in a bit, but with Spiller now a Saint, McCoy comes in as the automatic starter. The only drawback for McCoy last year was that the Eagles spread the ball around fairly thin, particularly utilizing Darren Sproles more than fantasy owners would have liked. McCoy has shown that he can carry an entire offense by himself with his best year coming in 2011 where he had 1,309 yards and a ridiculous 17 touchdowns. The presence of Rex Ryan basically guarantees that this offense will run through McCoy. Ryan has always leaned heavily on the run and has already suggested his new Bills team will be predominantly ground-and-pound.

In looking at the rankings, you’ll notice that McCoy is often slotted toward the end of the top 10 at the position. If this were purely talent based, McCoy would surely be higher, but not only is he switching teams, he’s going from a high-powered offense with a solid offensive line to a weaker offense and a line that is regarded as one of the worst in football. That being said, we’ve seen Fred Jackson be a key fantasy contributor well into his 30’s, and McCoy is obviously a younger and superior talent to Jackson. The less potent offense and downgrade in o-line are reason enough to lower McCoy to the back end of the first round in a fantasy draft. There’s still a fairly good chance he makes us all regret not taking him higher. Personally, I’d consider McCoy as high as six or seven in a re-draft league, simply because he possesses just as much risk as any of the other players around him. Arian Foster is often dinged up, C.J. Anderson has o-line concerns in his own right, Matt Forte has a new system in place, and the list goes on. Basically, LeSean McCoy will be the focal point of this offense and is a first round talent you might be able to acquire at a discount.

I’ve always been a big supporter of the aforementioned Fred Jackson for two reasons. The first is rather obvious, in that he’s managed to defy the odds and produce well into his 30’s. He’s never been a superstar playmaker, but he’s pretty much always been fantasy relevant. Last year was a down year for him, however, as he missed two games and only ended up with 525 yards and two touchdowns. At 34, it was only a matter of time before his age started catching up to him. He’s had years where he flirted with 1,000+ yards and has seemingly always been heavily involved in the passing game.

The other reason why I’m the president of the Fred Jackson fan club is that he always managed to shrug off the C.J. Spiller hype. For four straight seasons Jackson ate into Spiller’s workload, refusing to go down without a fight. As much as I’d love to fight the good fight alongside Fred Ex now that Spiller is in New Orleans, the addition of LeSean McCoy may finally put an end to his run. Jackson has stated himself that he intends to go down swinging, putting up one last fight to keep his job, but McCoy is simply too stiff of competition. While I expect McCoy to share an overwhelming amount of the workload, I could see Jackson being relevant in a PPR format. He’s also the clear handcuff on a team that will absolutely run the ball into the ground. There are few teams that have handcuffs who would automatically become fantasy relevant, and Fred Jackson qualifies as that type of player.

Rookies and Tight Ends

The Bills didn’t do much in the draft as far as relevant rookies are concerned. They selected running back Karlos Williams and tight end Nick O’Leary, two players who will be negated by those atop of them in the depth chart.

Buffalo also signed former Miami tight end Charles Clay. Clay managed to put together two respectable seasons in his last two years as a Dolphin. 2013 was his best year with 759 yards and six touchdowns on 103 targets, so he’s shown he deserves attention as a low-end fantasy tight end. The problem is, this isn’t a Bills team that is expected the throw the ball enough to warrant Clay as an every-week starter. There’s been some murmerings that the team intends to utilize it’s tight end, but I’d advocate a “wait and see” approach with that. Clay is definitely the type of guy to target as a bye week fill-in given the right matchup, but there are just way too many tight ends ahead of him more worth a draft selection.

Summary

Hopefully this rejuvenated AFC East is able to provide us with an increase in fantasy production. The Buffalo Bills are certainly headed in the right direction in that regard with LeSean McCoy leading the charge.

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