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Coaching Changes in the NFL: Fantasy Football Analysis
We'll be taking a detailed look at all of the NFL head coaching and offensive coordinator changes in 2014 to help you prepare for your 2014 fantasy football drafts. We will do a small breakdown by each position, and examine how the coaching change will affect some key fantasy football contributors for each team. First up, fantasy football winners.
Washington Redskins
Jay Gruden replaces Mike Shanahan; Sean McVay replaces Kyle Shanahan
The Shanahan era is finally over in Washington, and as good of a coach as Mike was, it's be time for him and his son to move on. The offense was extremely stale last year. While some of that can be blamed on Robert Griffin’s leg injury, they didn’t do anything to try to mask his deficiencies. Their play calling just didn’t create any excitement or opportunities for most of Washington’s skill players. Jay Gruden should be excited to make his mark and get out of his father’s shadow, while Sean McVay should be instrumental in helping the receiving corps, as he previously helped Fred Davis and Jordan Reed become fantasy-relevant players.
The Redskins passing offense should see a boost. Jay Gruden is a favorite in many fantasy circles, and for good reason, as he made Andy Dalton-- a quarterback with a limited arm and average decision making-- a fantasy-relevant contributor. Robert Griffin and Pierre Garcon should have no problem becoming top-tier players at their positions. Griffin, especially, should have a better year under Gruden, who has promised that he will take advantage of Griffin’s running ability, which should be much improved this year. DeSean Jackson should also have a nice season if Griffin gets his deep-ball touch back, something he lacked in 2013-- Gruden loves the deep ball. Jordan Reed also carries a ton of sleeper potential this year, as he was Sean McVay’s personal project last year. As far as the run game, we can expect a slight change in the Redskins backfield. Morris should still ultimately see most of the carries, but Roy Helu might be utilized more in the passing game, ala a Gio Bernard. Morris’s value should still be high, however, as he will almost certainly receive the red zone looks and is a better pure runner than Morris.
Result: Passing offense UP, Helu PPR UP, Morris Neutral
Minnesota Vikings
Mike Zimmer replaces Leslie Frazier; Norv Turner replaces Bill Musgrave
Leslie Frazier was not a bad coach, but the Vikings were content with making a change. Mike Zimmer should provide a much needed tenacity to the Vikings defense, and Norv Turner should help with the vertical passing attack. Under Frazier and Musgrave last year, the offense became bland. The entire attack was focused on letting Adrian Peterson be Adrian Peterson which, while not a bad plan, is hard to implement every single week. Musgrave never seemed to call plays to give Peterson space. The coaching staff just couldn’t get much out of their players, and the play-calling was fairly obvious. Zimmer is obviously a defensive-minded coach, so Norv will be the key game-changer here.
Kyle Rudolph is a favorite as a sleeper for many experts this year. Coming off a broken foot, he should be healthy by the time the season rolls around. Turner has been excellent his whole career with getting tight ends open, and Rudolph may be the most talented he’ll ever work with (yes, I’m calling you out Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron). If Teddy Bridgewater pans out, Rudolph could become a force as early as this year. The vertical attack itself should also see some improvement under Turner, so look for Greg Jennings and especially Cordarrelle Patterson to post some respectable numbers as well. Adrian Peterson is still clearly a top fantasy back, and the fact that the Vikings coaching staff will probably improve their competitiveness helps his value as he will most likely be receiving some more late-game runs, which could provide HUGE dividends for his fantasy value as teams wear down late in games. If Peterson stays healthy, he should be a top-three back.
Result: UP
Cleveland Browns
Mike Pettine replaces Rob Chudzinski, Kyle Shanahan replaces Norv Turner
Like many others do, I think this is a completely ridiculous move by the Cleveland ownership. While the front office clearly needed a change (Joe Banner is a horrible GM), the coaching staff did not. Norv Turner was getting a lot out of two of the leagues new stars, Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon, while Brian Hoyer looked like a quality starter when healthy. Rob Chudzinski was also a favorite of mine when was in Carolina as he helped Cam Newton become what he is today. It’s amazing that they were fired, as their offense was explosive when healthy, and the team was breathing signs of life midway through the season, something Cleveland doesn’t see that often.
I’m not the biggest fan of Kyle Shanahan as a coordinator. However, it can’t be denied that his top receiver is someone to monitor in fantasy circles. Andre Johnson had two of his best seasons under him, as well as Pierre Garcon. If Josh Gordon avoids suspension, or misses only 8 games, no double coverage can stop him from having a monster season once again. Jordan Cameron’s value should remain the same as well, as Owen Daniels, Fred Davis, and Jordan Reed all had good season under Shanahan. The running game remains a question mark, but the potential is there with a fairly talented Ben Tate and Terrance West. Shanahan was able to make Steve Slaton fantasy relevant back in Texas in 2008.
Result: No change
Houston Texans
Bill O’Brien replaces Gary Kubiak
Bill O’Brien was eventually going to burst his way onto the NFL scene once again. He took over a disgraced Penn State team and brought it back to relevance quicker than anyone could have imagined. He did it with superb play calling and getting the most out of his players. He was the offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots starting in 2011, and was the primary play caller for one of Tom Brady’s best seasons, 2012.
I love this hire for the Texans. Gary Kubiak has been on the hot seat for a few years in Houston, and a change was imminent.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is the most likely starter for O’brien and the Texans, but the situation is worth monitoring as the season goes on. Tom Savage was drafted as a late round pick, and could make his way into the starting line-up with a good preseason and solid camp. Andre Johnson will be the main beneficiary of the O’Brien hire, and while there is some controversy following him currently, there is no doubt in my mind that O’Brien will be designing his playbook to take advantage of Andre’s impressive route tree. He should hold similar value to last year in regards to a coaching change, regardless of the quarterback situation. DeAndre Hopkins value remains limited, but Houston will probably be playing from behind again, so he should receive his fair share. He is a great dynasty grab for once Houston solves it’s quarterback issues. Arian Foster should still see significant value as well, as O’Brien made a star out of Stevan Ridley. Penn State’s rushing statistics were also strong last year as well. The main question with Foster is his health and age.
Result: No change, UP UP UP in future.
Detroit Lions
Jim Caldwell replaces Jim Schwartz, Joe Lombardi replaces Scott Linehan
I’m a big fan of the head coaching change in Detroit. Jim Schwartz was not a good coach, and Jim Caldwell is one of the most respected in the league. He worked with Peyton Manning for a majority of his career, and helped Joe Flacco on his dominant playoff run. Scott Linehan was a decent offensive coordinator. He was an expert at getting Calvin Johnson the ball, and underrated attribute as he was at the minimum double teamed on every play. He also created a force in the backfield with Reggie Bush and Joique Bell.
Matt Stafford should be the primary beneficiary of Jim Caldwell. While he’s not a quarterback guru like Mark Trestman, he should still prove to be a significant help to Matt Stafford. Stafford is one of the top quarterbacks in the league. If his passing attempts were on par with most other quarterbacks, his interceptions would be as well. His main issue is throwing mechanics, something Caldwell is sure to fix and help him become more consistent. The addition of Eric Ebron and Golden Tate should also provide more opportunities for Calvin Johnson and cement his value. Lombardi was the quarterbacks coach for New Orleans, and should also provide some help for Stafford. The running game remains questionable in Detroit, as the question looms around Reggie Bush’s health and age. Joique Bell should continue to be a factor however. Caldwell never was able to make Donald Brown a good running back, a feat that may have been impossible regardless.
Result: Stafford UP, Rushing attack DOWN
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lovie Smith replaces Greg Schiano, Jeff Tedford replaces Mike Sullivan
The Greg Schiano experiment didn’t last long. In his first year, it looked as if Schiano’s hard nose coaching might help the Bucs fight their way to a playoff spot. However, due to a variety of factors, including but not limited to his skepticism of Josh Freeman as well as the reports of players not liking his controlling demeanor, the Bucs chose to go in a different direction after a miserable year in 2013. Lovie Smith was brought on the right the ship. Smith is obviously known for his time as the Bears head coach, a position he probably didn’t deserve to lose. He is an aggressive defensive coach that helped implement the Tampa 2 Defense when it was first introduced. Jeff Tedford is a newcomer in the NFL. He spent over 10 years as the head coach of Cal, leading them to some of their best seasons in college history. Tedford is known as an extremely high work ethic coach, sometimes sleeping in his coaching room because he stays up too late studying and planning.
I love the change for Tampa in the long run. From what it seems currently, they will be using Josh McCown as quarterback over Mike Glennon, a smart move by the coaching staff. McCown had his only good season last year when under the great Mark Trestman, but Tedford has similar philosophies to Mark, as they both are very detail oriented and mold their offense around the capabilities of the players they have. McCown clearly has physical limitations, but Tedford should be able to work with him. Hell, he made Trent Dilfer, David Carr, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, and Kyle Boller all look like stars while at Cal and Fresno. If Tedford can help McCown, both Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson could be poised for some decent years. The running game should also see a boost from a variety of factors. First, the defense will be improved by default. Although they lost Revis, Alterraun Verner should still be decent for Lovie. With a better defense, the Buccaneers should be in more games, helping the run game by default. With a healthy Doug Martin, we can expect a completely improved offense led by exciting rookie coach Jeff Tedford. While I still am skeptical of Tedford as a rookie coach, there is no way the Bucs can be as bad as last year, so they should improve by default.
Result: Doug Martin UP, McCown UP, Receivers Neutral
