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Mike's Week 11 college football betting picks against the spread for Tuesday, November 10 through Friday, November 13, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Why would we expect a normal week? It was another week of carnage, but at least most of the losses by ranked teams were to other ranked teams. We saw an embarrassment of favoritism by officials in Columbia, Missouri. Miami found out what it feels like to be on the other side of a controversial call.
Sacramento State fit right into November MACtion. The Tuesday and Wednesday games were great last week and should be this week as well. We have 11 games before Saturday that we can make some money on. Who's with me?
If you have questions about any of these games or the SEC cupcake games this weekend, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 11
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
You should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I've had trouble finding the 2019 and 2020 articles, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.
If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.
Let's tackle the 11 picks before the Saturday games before we check out the results of Week 10. The early results are looking much better than last week.
Western Michigan (-14.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Did they not learn anything from last week?
Pick: Akron +14.5
Kent State at Bowling Green (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I get it. The last time that we saw Kent State, they were getting walloped by Sacramento State.
Pick: Bowling Green -5.5
Ohio (-1.5) at Miami (OH)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The 103rd Edition of the Battle of the Bricks! ?x?
Ohio Football will look for their third straight win against rival Miami in a midweek MACtion showdown. Kickoff will be at 8 p.m. and will be nationally broadcast on ESPN 2
?: @evan_johnson_15
?: https://t.co/nhy5M4qP8c https://t.co/p9SkR9bPgB— WOUB Bobcat Showcase (@BobcatShowcase) November 9, 2026
The Battle of the Bricks is the most storied rivalry in the MAC. Ohio has won three straight, but some are down on them after losing to Buffalo last week. I'm not.
Pick: Ohio -1.5
Buffalo (-2.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ball State is a different team with Keldric Luster under center, but can they stop the dominant Buffalo run game? I have my doubts.
Pick: Buffalo -2.5
Sacramento State at Central Michigan (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know. Both of Sacramento State's strong games have come at home, but this is a ton of points. Jadyn Glasser looked awesome for the Chippewas last week, and I think CMU wins. Just not by this much.
Pick: Sacramento State +17.5
Massachusetts at Toledo (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
If you shop around, you can find this line at 14 or under. That's a little surprising to me, but Toledo almost lost to Sacramento State.
Pick: Massachusetts +14.5
Memphis (-4.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bulls turned over the game in Greenville. Don't expect a repeat.
Pick: South Florida +4.5
Louisiana (-10.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
@ULM_FB We got you the Battle on the Bayou Wooden Boot Trophy https://t.co/fxs9xIBpWb
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) September 25, 2022
This is the REAL Battle of the Bayou. Not LSU-Alabama or LSU-Clemson. The teams have met 61 times, and they really don't like each other. The Cajuns have had the boot since 2023, and have won it seven of the last eight times.
I think they make it eight of nine, but Monroe did win a game last week...
Pick: Louisiana -10.5
Florida State at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Holden Geriner has played well in the last couple of weeks, but this seems a little off. Mike Norvell's firing was long overdue, and the Seminoles looked like they had more of a purpose last week. Was I just seeing things?
Pick: Florida State +3.5
Illinois at (5) UCLA (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Illinois has the talent to hang around, but UCLA's run game is going to ruin them.
Pick: UCLA -9.5
(17) Houston (-10.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Colorado can't even hang with teams at Folsom Field anymore.
Pick: Houston -10.5
CFB Betting Picks - Week 10 Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2021-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My results will follow.
Ohio (-13.5) at Akron: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is Cibastian Broughton's team now. Akron has some talent. They just need to put it together.
Buffalo at Miami (OH) (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I knew this line was off. I would have maxed it out if Buffalo hadn't scarred me so much this year.
Ball State at Massachusetts (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was everything that MACtion should be, but UMass didn't get the cover. What they did get was a fifth win for the first time since 2012 and for the first time as an FBS team.
Toledo (-25.5) at Sacramento State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The first FBS win for the Hornets isn't far behind. This is a well-coached team.
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Even Noah Kim wouldn't have saved the Eagles in this one. Jadyn Glasser is the real deal for the Chips.
UTSA (-6.5) at Florida Atlantic: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I expected Caden Veltkamp and Easton Messer to do what they do, but I didn't expect UTSA to get blown off the field.
Last night, FAU's Easton Messer became the first FBS player since Dante Pettis in 2016 to catch 3 TD passes AND throw a TD in the same game‼️
He's been on an ABSOLUTE TEAR over his last 3 games:
? 8 receiving TD
? 2 rushing TD
? 1 passing TD
⚡ 1 punt-return TD https://t.co/YW712dRxGn— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) November 6, 2026
James Madison (-14.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Does this mean the curse is over? I know that it means Camden Coleman is done as the starter. It's an embarrassment of quarterback riches at JMU.
Virginia Tech at SMU (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is the SMU offense that we thought we would get in September.
South Florida at East Carolina (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Luke Kromenhoek wasn't the problem. D.J. Crowther wasn't either. The inability to cover Landon Sides was.
Nebraska (-4.5) at Illinois: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Well, at least Nebraska didn't lose another one-score game. I'm not sure that Dana Holgorsen was the problem, but I guess someone had to be blamed.
(22) New Mexico (-9.5) at Nevada: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The New Mexico defense is elite. The offense is great when they can run the ball.
TCU at (24) Arizona (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arizona needed a miracle to pull this one off.
OMG ARIZONA RECOVERED A POOCH KICK https://t.co/wKQg32ORW4
— gmannVOLS (@gmannVOLS) November 7, 2026
(9) BYU at (3) Utah (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The return of LJ Martin helped, but BYU was completely dominated in the second half of the Holy War. Utah should be the No. 1 team, but we all know that will never happen.
(7) Texas (-2.5) at (18) Missouri: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was the most poorly officiated game I've seen in many years, which is saying a lot. There were at least five missed calls in favor of Texas, including three of them that were botched by review.
When you have the ABC booth people disagreeing with the replay officials and the officials on the field, you know it's bad. This was the worst, and the one that completely changed the game. Texas would have had to punt.
Still one of the weirdest plays that SEC needs to explain. Arch is hit on a 3rd and 10 and they rule it a fumble *forward* which Texas picks up and gets a 1st down. A few plays later, Texas scores a touchdown to tie it... https://t.co/SiC5KEomnX
— gmannVOLS (@gmannVOLS) November 7, 2026
Missouri played well enough to win this game, and if it weren't for the officials, it likely would have. The SEC is protecting its top brands. Sorry, Mizzou. They just aren't that into you, even after 14 years.
(8) UCLA (-5.5) at Minnesota: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How far will the UCLA defense take them? It has already given them a trip to the CFP.
Iowa State at Baylor (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was feeling good about this one until the third quarter.
Clemson (-2.5) at Syracuse: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Clemson defense was impressive again. This was a tough one to lose for the Orange.
Florida State (-6.5) at Boston College: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Boston College had the run game going in this one, but they couldn't stop the run. Oh, how ironic!
North Carolina (-6.5) at Connecticut: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It took Bill Belichick about a year and a half to get UNC looking like they should. The Heels could be a contender next year.
Tulsa (-1.5) at Tulane: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, this was brutal. The Tulane defense is an absolute disaster right now.
What a day for Tulsa receiver Oran Singleton Jr.
He had 13 catches for 177 yards and 3 TD in the Golden Hurricane's 60-10 win at Tulane https://t.co/wJ0m9FSfBz
— 2StripesCPD (@2StripesCPD) November 7, 2026
Duke (-4.5) at North Carolina State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Duke has allowed five points in the last two games combined. Maybe they aren't out of the ACC race just yet.
Maryland at Purdue (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I like Mike Locksley, but it sure looks like Maryland made the right decision in firing him.
Arkansas at Auburn (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Auburn should have lost this outright. How did this team beat Georgia?
Oklahoma State (-4.5) at Kansas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was the easiest money in this history of money. I bet my usual allotment in a week on this one, so I came out ahead this week.
Drew Mestemaker has now thrown for 300+ yards in EIGHT straight games, breaking Oklahoma State's school record.
22/28, 313 PASS YDS, 4 PASS TD, 1 INT, 1 RUSH TD, 1 REC TD vs Kansas State
The former high school punter is now a favorite to go No. 1 in the 2027 NFL Draft. https://t.co/lTKhUAB3Sn
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) November 7, 2026
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The three interceptions thrown by Deuce Bailey lost this game.
Georgia State at Appalachian State (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Maybe App State should have stuck with Henry Hasselbeck...
Texas A&M at (21) South Carolina (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Texas A&M defense is holding up its end of the bargain. The offense is still struggling.
Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas State (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I thought that it felt a little high, but I didn't see Monroe winning outright.
Delaware (-2.5) at Kennesaw State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Nick Minicucci had another good game. The defense did not.
(5) Alabama at (14) LSU (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Alabama dominated the fourth quarter of this game. LSU sure paid a lot of money for the same results that Brian Kelly was getting last year...
(23) Oregon at (12) Ohio State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I know that some were surprised by Ohio State losing outright, but I wasn't. The Oregon defense hasn't been the problem all season.
What did surprise me is that Ohio State's defense is now a massive problem. Luke Fahey turned in another solid performance, but it was ruined by the defense.
Cincinnati at (17) Houston (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
People are quick to dismiss Cincinnati since they play in the Big 12, but this team is better than the 2025 version. You know, the one that was quarterbacked by the prize of the portal, Brendan Sorsby.
Penn State at Washington (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There's Carson Hansen. Why Penn State didn't use him when the season was still within their grasp, I'll never know.
Charlotte at UAB (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That UAB defense came up with some big plays to hold to field goals.
Temple at Navy (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew that I didn't like that half. I should have been more cautious about it. I was lucky enough to bet it at -7.
Marshall at Georgia Southern (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Max Johnson is trying to end his college career in style.
Western Kentucky (-1.5) at Middle Tennessee State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is what you expect a rivalry game to be. The 93 combined points weren't even the most of the wild college football Saturday.
Central Florida at Kansas (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better, especially with Alonza Barnett III back.
Rice at North Texas (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
New coach, new skill players, same result for North Texas. Tayven Jackson, Jahiem White, and Justin Stevenson are the new Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins, and Wyatt Young.
Northern Illinois at San Jose State (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Where did that come from?
Missouri State at Florida International (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bears really needed the outright win to help out the bowl hopes, but at least they busted the cover.
Louisiana Tech (-5.5) at Troy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Troy's win over James Madison may have been the biggest fluke of the year.
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The circle of suck is complete.
For the entire history of man this has been called the “Circle of Suck” but because it’s SEC, we can’t say that.
— First and 16 - A Big 12 Show (@Firstand16_Pod) November 9, 2026
Rutgers at Wisconsin (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known better. Rutgers is Rutgers for a reason.
South Alabama at Louisiana (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Jaguars are a different team with Bishop Davenport in there.
(25) Boise State (-17.5) at Colorado State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
No Maddux Madsen, no problem! Max Cutforth carved up the Colorado State defense. At this point, it has to be the worst defensive unit in the country. Yes, even worse than West Virginia.
(6) Kentucky at (13) Tennessee (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
These are the games that Tennessee didn't win last year. Even though the offense still struggles at times, this defense makes a difference now. It hasn't under Josh Heupel before.
@Austin_Vols I caught a glimpse of that and said “The Barrel”!!! I was disappointed when I saw what it was, but it was better than nothing! It was fun seeing it. I wish they’d bring back the real barrel! https://t.co/Qv7PtMsInP
— Mitzi??????⚾️?? (@mitzi4vols) November 8, 2026
We don't have to live like this. The actual Beer Barrel still exists, and at least one former Tennessee coach knows of its whereabouts. College Football needs old traditions back now more than ever. The Beer Barrel has been in exile long enough. Bring it back.
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sam Houston has fallen apart in Conference USA play.
(1) Miami at (11) Notre Dame (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a fun game to watch, but it meant nothing. Notre Dame is in the CFP now. Miami is in as well. It was like Duke playing Kansas in college basketball in November. It's a fun exhibition, but it doesn't matter.
??CONTROVERSY??
Miami fans are FURIOUS with the refs after TE Elija Lofton’s potential game-tying TD against Notre Dame was ruled incomplete.
Fans say Lofton secured the ball and took a step, making it a TD.
Instead, Miami turned it over on downs ? https://t.co/6fbZhC4USy
— MLFootball (@MLFootball) November 8, 2026
This is the play that is being pointed to as the reason Miami lost and that it should have been a touchdown. While I agree that this should be a touchdown, it hasn't been called as such in college or NFL games for the last 15 years.
I don't think it's right, but that has been one of the few consistently officiated things of the last decade.
(2) Georgia (-3.5) at (10) Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Obviously I wasn't totally sold on this, but I should have been.
(19) Iowa at Northwestern (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Does Vegas really not know who and what Iowa is yet? This was a dream matchup for them, and it showed. I hammered the Iowa ML and the under, so I made enough this week to offset all of my losses on the season. Unfortunately, my points system won't show it.
Colorado at Arizona State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is Florida State going to bail out Colorado and hire Deion Sanders?
Louisville (-14.5) at Georgia Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Everything that Georgia Tech tried as a spark was a failure, much like the entire 2026 team. Haynes King was very important to this team, but Buster Faulkner may have been more important.
Michigan State at Michigan (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Michigan probably needs to go back to Bryce Underwood. This was one of the most embarrassing losses in this series for Michigan.
The Paul Bunyan Trophy is so funny https://t.co/rvdWneVRa1
— gmannVOLS (@gmannVOLS) November 8, 2026
Whatever you may think about Underwood and his skill set, he has handled this like a professional.
Air Force at Army (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Evan Medder threw EIGHT passes! That's more than Air Force attempted in the last month combined since Liam Szarka went down.
Oklahoma at (24) Florida (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jason Witten ran the offense that Brent Venables wants. Run the ball. Chew the clock. John Mateer had his best game of the season, and probably his best game against a power opponent since coming to Oklahoma.
Ben Arbuckle wasn't the whole problem, but he was a big piece of it. I'm all for hiring Witten full-time (-17.5)
Liberty at New Mexico State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was never a game, but Liberty still didn't cover. New Mexico State should have reinstated Trey Hedden about a month ago.
West Virginia at (15) Texas Tech (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
What a fun game this was! Thomas Castellanos was the missing link for Texas Tech. Michael Hawkins Jr. had a monster first three quarters. Texas Tech buckled down in the fourth to take the win.
Fresno State (-2.5) at Utah State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was par for the Pac -12 course. The Utah State defense is really good. What happens if the offense catches up?
Hawaii (-9.5) at UTEP: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I really should have known better than to trust Hawaii on the mainland.
Texas State at Oregon State (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not surprised that Texas State won. I am surprised that it was a blowout and Jesse Legree was held under 100 yards and without a touchdown again.
Wyoming at UNLV (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tyler Hughes looks like a service academy quarterback. This game was so bad for Jackson Arnold that he was benched by his third school. Alex Orji was arguably worse, so we have the worst kind of QB controversy in Vegas.
College Football Betting Season Results
I finally had a winning week with a record of 35-27. I'm still underwater at 258-305 on the season. I gained some points back, but how many?
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-1 (28-21) = 7
2. 14-10 (92-111) = -38
3. 10-11 (95-97) = -6
4. 6-5 (32-51) = -76
5. 1-0 (11-24) = -65
I only ended up gaining 17 points since most of my leverage was gained on lower bets. It's still better than it was. I'm down 178 points on the season, but I have a little bit of confidence back after this week.
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