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Austin Swaim's UFC DFS lineups picks for UFC 333 - Volkanovski vs. Evloev. Top MMA fighter picks this week include Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev, Aaron Pico, Movsar Evloev, Merab Dvalishvili, and Dominick Reyes.
Every week, DraftKings Daily Fantasy offers MMA contests featuring the full UFC fight card. The DFS slate for UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev locks Saturday at 10 a.m. EST and can be viewed on Paramount+.
Saturday's main event is a featherweight title bout between the division's G.O.A.T., Alexander Volkanovski, and undefeated Russian wrestler Movsar Evloev. Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili will settle their trilogy for bantamweight gold in the co-main event of a stacked Abu Dhabi card.
Here is a full breakdown of my favorite picks in each pricing tier.
UFC 333 DraftKings DFS Studs to Target
Asaf Chopurov ($9,500)
UFC fans don't know Asaf Chopurov yet, but they will.
The undefeated bantamweight from UAE Warriors is such a polished prospect that he skipped Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) outright. The Russian wrestler has incredible balance, is crafty with his trips, and smothers foes with top control.
Don't sleep on his boxing, either.
Asaf Chopurov just knocked out Reece McLaren in 63 seconds. Overhand right counter. Still UAE Warriors BW champ at 11-0. Get this guy on a big stage.
#UAEWarriors72 https://t.co/t6KARoyAXH
— caposa (@Grabaka_Hitman) July 23, 2026
It seems crazy to position any unknown quantity as a -600 favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, over a multi-time UFC winner like Colby Thicknesse, but Thicknesse' +0.31 striking success rate (SSR) is extremely plain for his competition level.
Plus, his 33% takedown defense is asking for disaster in this matchup. A wrestling-heavy approach never hurts in fantasy, either.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev ($9,400)
Matchmakers really thought they were slick with this light heavyweight prelim.
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev is the boogeyman at 205 pounds. He's scored three finishes in the first 35 seconds in four UFC-affiliated appearances. Yes, that is a DraftKings "quick win bonus," a whopping 75% of the time. It's also led to a mountainous +6.42 SSR, the best on this card.
Of course, "The Hunter" hasn't faced truly elite, experienced opposition yet. Nikita Krylov is so much of the latter that he's no longer the former, unfortunately.
Krylov's striking (48%) and takedown (53%) defense have always been a problem, but it's getting worse. He's been finished inside three of his last four starts, bringing his UFC loss-by-finish total to 8.
A hyper-aggressive Yakhyaev is a nightmare matchup for the slower, athletically limited Ukrainian at this stage. He's -160 to win in Round 1.
Abubakar Vagaev ($8,900)
It's strange that Abubakar Vagaev, a somewhat small 170er, is moving up to 185 pounds for this matchup with Jacob Malkoun, but it could be just because it's so perfect.
These wrestlers square off, but Vagaev has significantly more answers in scrambles. We saw Malkoun cede 3:56 in control time to lose Round 1 against Gerald Meerschaert in May. Part of wrestling is being able to escape bottom positions safely, and the Aussie struggled.
Vagaev, a teammate of Khamzat Chimaev, scored 4 takedowns and 7:46 in control time in his debut against Saygid Izagakhmaev.
If this were a striking match, I'd favor Malkoun (+1.90 SSR) considerably. But I can't trust his 55% takedown defense to keep it there. Vagaev's style is extremely consistent in DraftKings' scoring system, even if explosive nights aren't likely from his 80% career decision rate.
UFC 333 DraftKings DFS Mid-Tier Picks
Aaron Pico ($8,300)
The balance of Aaron Pico's entire UFC career will be the same. The uber-talented Californian will probably win every round of every fight outside the top 10 -- but his chin has to hold up. Four of Pico's five pro losses have come via knockout, and many in Bellator were vicious.
But there's no denying the Jackson-Wink MMA product's skill set. He's off to a phenomenal start as a striker (+3.05 SSR) or a wrestler (6.54 takedowns landed per 15 minutes) thus far.
That's likely the path of least resistance against Losene Keita. "Black Panther" is an explosive knockout artist, but his regional tape on OKTAGON featured far less credentialed wrestlers than Pico did, and they scored takedowns and control time.
Keita has upside to find Pico's shaky chin in Round 1, but I don't know how much to trust him to do so when he couldn't utilize a three-inch reach edge to bother Nathaniel Wood in March.
Movsar Evloev ($8,000)
Regardless of the tough road ahead of Movsar Evloev in the main event, he's always a must-have option in DFS with 25 minutes to work.
His last fight, a five-rounder with Lerone Murphy, was not smooth sailing. He lost the first three rounds on a scorecard. But the Russian wrestling ace kept chipping away at Murphy and found a way to post 86 significant strikes, 9 takedowns, and 124.0 DraftKings points (DKPTs).
Movsar Evloev had a 90% takedown success rate against Murphy. He never forced a TD and didn't even attempt one til round 3. Trademark Mike Brown-trained efficiency. https://t.co/OKlrdfW6fj
— RJ Clifford (@RJcliffordMMA) March 23, 2026
Alexander Volkanovski, 38, is one of the best to ever step in the octagon, but he's aging. His 68% takedown defense hasn't been perfect, including a pair surrendered to Diego Lopes in his last fight.
Even if you like Volkanovski to get the nod, he'll marginally post significant strikes to edge out rounds, but Evloev will bust the slate open with five-plus takedowns at this mid-range salary. It's a no-brainer unless you think the Aussie can knock Evloev, unbeaten to this stage, out cold.
Cam Rowston ($7,800)
A couple of tall middleweights will square off on the prelims, but Australia's Cam Rowston is a prospect I'm supremely high on to make noise inside the top 15.
Rowston, training at City Kickboxing with Carlos Ulberg, Navajo Stirling, and other large bodies in the title picture, has displayed sharp kickboxing (+2.48 SSR) since his knockout win on DWCS.
However, the part we didn't expect was his grappling. He secured a career-high in takedowns (3) and control time (10:10) in his last matchup with Robert Bryczek, which called for it.
The uber-talented Abus Magomedov awaits, but Magomedov's poor endurance is why he's got a -0.28 SSR. All three losses came outside the seven-minute mark, and Rowston showed excellent staying power in his last bout.
UFC 333 DraftKings Underdog Plays
Merab Dvalishvili ($7,400)
You sort of wish DraftKings, at times, put more thought into their salaries than win probability. Merab Dvalishvili is almost a must at this salary outside of an improbable early stoppage.
Dvalishvili's last fight was considered a failure, and he still posted 90.4 DKPTs thanks to 134 significant strikes and 2 takedowns. "The Machine" is averaging 131.5 DKPTs across his last 10 fights, which -- of course -- leads all active fighters in this span.
Merab broke the record for the most takedown attempts in a UFC fight with 49. The previous record was 33.
What a performance at #UFCLasVegas 👏 https://t.co/UEUjYetzqh
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) March 12, 2023
Petr Yan has defended 94.6% of Merab's takedown attempts across two full 25-minute affairs, and it still hasn't mattered. Should the 35-year-old Georgian be more efficient on these attempts, score additional control time, or find a finish, the ceiling is considerably higher.
Considering he's never been stopped in 14 minutes as a pro, I genuinely am out of answers about a path to failure at this salary.
Dominick Reyes ($7,200)
At my model's recommendation, I'm going to roll the dice with "The Devastator".
Two powerful knockout artists at 205 pounds face off in the featured prelim. Azamat Murzakanov and Dominick Reyes have combined for 11 UFC knockouts, and both have knockdown rates (KD%) north of 1.19%. There is mammoth danger for both guys.
Murzakanov is getting a little bit of the benefit of the doubt for his first (T)KO loss against Paulo Costa in April, but he's now 37. Reyes, 36, has been KO'd four times in the UFC.
I understand the difference in attrition, but my model balances both and accounts for Reyes' six-inch reach advantage and a significantly higher historical level of competition, including a full 25-minute fight by Jon Jones.
At a punt-level salary, my model has Reyes at 20.4% likely to finish the fight -- and 42.2% likely to win it.
Nicolle Caliari ($7,000)
Iasmin Lucindo just can't be a priority on this slate chock full of wrestlers and dominant favorites.
She's yet to top 100 DKPTs in seven UFC fights, and this is a dangerous matchup for both her chances to win and score in DFS.
Nicolle Caliari is a former flyweight, and her debut in this 115-pound division was a dominant Round 3 submission and grappling masterclass. Lucindo's 68% takedown defense has been inconsistent; the Brazilian allowed 3 takedowns in a 2025 loss to Amanda Lemos.
Lucindo's best path to win this fight is to keep it standing and pepper Caliari (-2.71 SSR) at distance, but that's also not a fantasy-friendly game plan. I'll have shares of this dog.
