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John Johnson's five fantasy football bold predictions for Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season. Expert predictions for Josh Downs, Bhayshul Tuten, Jaylen Waddle, Jalon Daniels and George Pickens.
Hitting on bold predictions is extremely difficult in general because bold often means pretty unrealistic. That's why I was only one for five in my predictions in last week's edition of this article -- that New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson would score 25 or more PPR fantasy points.
Still, upside wins championships, and outlier games are fun to try to predict. Wilson's matchup with the Detroit Lions' secondary, which had been decimated by injuries, gave him a runway for a big game. He ended up with 10 catches on 13 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown.
The other predictions didn't go so well. The Javonte Williams and Omarion Hampton guesses were way, way off, but that's the way things go. So let's dive into some more crazy things that may or may not happen in Week 4 -- some bold predictions!
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Josh Downs Scores 20+ PPR Fantasy Points
This is the prediction I'll be the most confident in, and there's solid reasoning behind it. Downs is the presumptive WR1 for the Colts heading into a Week 4 matchup with the Washington Commanders, who have had uninspiring play on defense against the pass this season. Downs is a good WR, though he's a slot guy.
He's an excellent separator who doesn't have the size or strength to block effectively on run plays. Thankfully, blocking doesn't matter much other than getting on the field in 2WR sets. But with WR Alec Pierce (heel) on injured reserve, Downs will get more playing time than he would otherwise.
Josh Downs Route Running. pic.twitter.com/nDEwFDKnUq
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) September 21, 2026
His smaller size allows him to change direction extremely quickly. It was surprising not to see him more involved in the offense when Pierce was playing -- the mostly unproductive passing offense flowed through the WR1 and top tight end, Tyler Warren.
But if Indianapolis wants to win in Week 4, they won't have a choice but to target Downs more heavily, who is already getting open at a good rate anyway. He'll have a very easy matchup. Things are falling into place for him to have a breakout.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen will have no issues with running up the score. He's fighting to keep his job for another year.
Bhayshul Tuten Eclipses 100 Yards Rushing
The Cincinnati Bengals are a much-improved defense against the pass this season. Rather than giving up approximately "eleventy billion" points per game by allowing defenses to run wild against them and air the ball out with huge success, they've been around the middle of the pack in points allowed.
Giving up 21 points per game through three contests is an improvement over the ridiculous 28.9 they gave up last season. Newly signed defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence has helped immensely with generating interior pressure.
Dexter Lawrence was doubled for the majority of this game and still found ways to be effective 😮💨
When Dex was given 1v1 opportunities, he made the Steelers pay, consistently creating havoc in the backfield 🐅 #Bengals #WhoDey pic.twitter.com/XjvZ0AUvN2
— 937Bengals 🐅 (@BengalsinDa937) September 29, 2026
He's double-teamed often, which doesn't help much. However, the Bengals still aren't very good against the run. By that I mean they're giving up a ridiculous 147.1 yards rushing per game to opposing teams, which is the worst in the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Bhayshul Tuten has yet to have his breakout game. The Jaguars have passed the ball heavily, and he hasn't been asked to do a ton. But he's clearly much better than his backup, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. So Tuten should be the clear lead back for the foreseeable future.
Every touch by Bhayshul Tuten in week 3 pic.twitter.com/seTjGHtei8
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) September 30, 2026
He carried the ball 15 times for 73 yards and a touchdown in Week 3, averaging nearly five yards per carry. He has likely his easiest matchup of the year upcoming in Week 4, so he should be started in all fantasy football leagues. The potential for a big game is strong.
Jaylen Waddle Goes For 100 Receiving Yards And One Touchdown
A big Denver Broncos wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (foot) breakout game is still coming, in all likelihood. He didn't do a ton in Week 1 and Week 3, though his Week 2 game saw him eclipse 21 PPR fantasy points. He has yet to score a touchdown this season, though he's come close on one occasion.
That could change in Week 4. The 49ers defense is dealing with a ton of injuries, though it wasn't readily apparent from their Week 3 contest. They got to beat the tar out of a hapless Arizona Cardinals team that they typically dominate anyway.
49ers defense vs. Duo runs this season (per @NextGenStats)
39 carries, 162 yards (4.2 YPC), 48.7% SR, 20.5% 1D% https://t.co/ZOcIsh1Z6V pic.twitter.com/JfNJFfZ9Ri
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 28, 2026
The 49ers defense has allowed just six yards per pass attempt this season. They've had a cupcake schedule so far, though -- aside from the Cardinals, they've only faced the Miami Dolphins, who have one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL, and a severely jet-lagged Los Angeles Rams team that's since improved.
The Broncos offense hasn't been super inspiring. They average only 20 points per game this year. But they played well in Week 3, pulling off an upset over the Rams and scoring 30 points in the process. They did so on just 257 yards of total offense, though.
That likely won't be possible against San Francisco, who has one of the best offenses in the league. And they're better against the run than the pass. Denver won't have the luxury of running the ball heavily, and will be forced to air it out, giving Waddle a nice runway to be hyper-targeted.
Jalon Daniels Outplays Baker Mayfield
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jalon Daniels is an undrafted first-year player from the University of Kansas. He worked his way up to be the second-ranked quarterback on the depth chart for his team, and after just three weeks in the 2026 NFL season, he's being called upon for his first start of pro football.
Daniels is clearly a highly unproven player. But starting QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) has not played well this season, so the bar Daniels has to beat isn't too terribly high. Mayfield injured his throwing shoulder last season and just hasn't been the same since.
VIKINGS INT 🗣️@MINvsTB on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/bXTGRshC75— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2026
The veteran averaged just over 200 passing yards per game in his three contests this season, throwing only two touchdowns to two interceptions and losing three fumbles. Turning the ball over two and a half times as often as getting it into the end zone through the air just isn't great.
Daniels will also likely make the Bucs receivers look better than they've looked so far this season. Mayfield's starting job could be in jeopardy if he hadn't signed a massive extension with the team this offseason. He may have pushed for a contract so hard knowing his throwing shoulder would never be the same.
George Pickens Eclipses 20 PPR Fantasy Points Against Texans Defense
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver George Pickens hasn't gotten off to a great start to his 2026 season. In his first two games, he averaged under 8.0 PPR fantasy points per game. It wasn't until Week 3 that he finished with a respectable total relative to his ADP by catching seven of his 11 targets for 82 yards.
Week 4 against the Houston Texans presents a major challenge. The Texans have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. But the Cowboys have a unique advantage of having another elite receiver on the roster in WR CeeDee Lamb. It will be difficult for Houston to shut them both down.
Dak throws it away when George Pickens had the separation for a TD. pic.twitter.com/JyP9dMytvN
— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) September 27, 2026
Pickens and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott have been close to connecting on a few big plays this season that would have changed discourse around Pickens' value markedly. At some point, you have to imagine their connection starts flourishing.
With Lamb there to draw defensive coverage away from the former Pittsburgh Steeler, Pickens should be able to make multiple big downfield catches and get into the end zone for the first time this season, finishing with an impressive statistical output and even outdoing his teammate Lamb to be the team's leading receiver.
