NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 4) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2026)

October 1, 2026

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season. Andersen's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season. There have already been 48 NFL games this season, and we've learned a lot about all 32 teams.

Some questions do still exist, though. Are the Raiders a legitimate playoff contender? Can the Giants, Commanders, and Bears keep winning despite injuries to their starting quarterback? Are we ready to panic about the Patriots, Texans, and Packers?

Every week of the 2026 NFL season, I'll lock in picks for each game and tier them based on my confidence level for the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized. Let's get to the picks for Week 4.

Week 4 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.

• 16 - Titans at Ravens

Our expectations for the Titans were low entering the season, and somehow, they have still managed to underperform. If they couldn't beat Jameis Winston and the Giants, they'll have no chance against Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and the Ravens.

• 15 - Packers at Buccaneers

This could have been a close battle between two drastically underperforming teams, but the odds shifted significantly after Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb. Jalon Daniels will make his first career start for the Buccaneers, and we don't see the undrafted free agent taking down the Packers.

Packers -3.5 -105 at Buccaneers
(Win 1u at theScore Bet)

The Bucs are a mess. Todd Bowles is likely the first coach fired.

Jalon Daniels is starting at QB.

Packers in a get-right spot off a blowout. They also have extended rest coming off TNF. pic.twitter.com/BaFPuAUPlp

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 30, 2026

• 14 - Dolphins at Vikings

The Dolphins are built around the rushing attack, but the bad news for Miami is that De'Von Achane (knee) has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Malik Willis and Ollie Gordon II will have trouble filling his void, especially against a Vikings defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards in 2026.

• 13 - Cardinals at Giants

Winston is set to earn another start on Sunday, even after the Giants traded for J.J. McCarthy. Winston did get a win last week, but he'll get a tougher test in the form of the Cardinals. Arizona put up 30 points last week against San Francisco. The Giants won't be able to keep up with that level of offensive production.

Please for all the Nabers and Likely fantasy managers stick with Jameis!! https://t.co/CwDWk5ap1v

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 28, 2026

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 4 Pick 'Em Pools

• 12 - Patriots at Bills

This game was dangerously close to sneaking into the "locks" list. We're not going to guarantee a loss for the reigning AFC champions, but it's pretty close. Drake Maye has one touchdown and seven turnovers this year, while the Patriots offense is tied for the fewest points in football. That's not nearly good enough to keep pace with an elite Bills offense.

Case Keenum Week 3: 24.48 fantasy pts

Drake Maye Week 1-3: 21.6 fantasy points

(h/t @pbecquey)

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 29, 2026

• 11 - Chiefs at Raiders

Believe it or not, Chiefs vs. Raiders will decide sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Both of these teams are 3-0, but the Raiders have enjoyed a softer schedule while the Chiefs are a much stronger team on paper.

Kansas City has the second-most total yards in the NFL. They can pass the ball with ease or change the pace with an elite rushing attack led by Kenneth Walker (442 scrimmage yards, four touchdowns).

• 10 - Chargers at Seahawks

The Seahawks suffered a shocking win at the hands of the Commanders in Sam Darnold's return from injury. Fortunately, they'll get another chance to bounce back against the 0-3 Chargers, who have arguably underperformed more than any other team in the NFL. If the Chargers can't beat the Raiders or Cardinals, they'll stand no chance against a vicious Seahawks defense.

• 9 - Cowboys at Texans

The two teams in this Texas showdown are a combined 1-5 this year. We're giving the edge to Dallas because of their extreme offensive firepower, but it's no secret that their defense is one of the worst in football. If there's any time for Houston's offense to get right, it's this week.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 4

• 8 - Rams at Eagles

The Rams have the most total yards in the NFL, and they're now going up against an Eagles defense that just surrendered 247 yards and two touchdowns to Case Keenum. The Eagles are better than their Week 3 loss would suggest, but we're still not taking them to beat this relentless Los Angeles squad.

• 7 - Falcons at Saints

We're taking the Saints here, but it's a tougher pick after Atlanta won and New Orleans lost. Drake London and Bijan Robinson are a nightmare for any defense. With that being said, Tyler Shough is showing off a clutch factor while Chris Olave could easily outperform London. This game could play a huge role in determining the NFC South champion.

Michael Penix is actually a very solid quarterback streaming option in Week 4 https://t.co/WWgv4Ewij6

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) September 30, 2026

• 6 - Steelers at Browns

It'll take a lot for us to pick the Browns. Starting 2-1 is a step in the right direction, but we would not be shocked if Deshaun Watson cools off against a T.J. Watt-led defense. With that being said, Aaron Rodgers didn't look sharp until last week, so this game could come down to whichever defense makes more stands. For that reason alone, Pittsburgh has the edge.

• 5 - Lions at Panthers

The Lions have yet to win a blowout game, and their matchup against the Panthers is much tougher than last week's against the Jets. With that being said, Carolina is looking to shake off an abnormally bad game of their own after falling to Cleveland. The difference-maker in this game will be Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams demolishing a depleted Carolina secondary.

• 4 - Jets at Bears

If you had asked us five days ago, we would have picked the Jets here. However, the Bears proved that they're still capable of playing at a high level, as we saw in their 27-7 drubbing of the Eagles. We're sticking with Chicago for Week 4, but we also acknowledge that Case Keenum might come back down to earth now that the Jets have a better understanding of how to prepare for him.

• 3 - Colts at Commanders

Both of these teams are coming off Week 3 wins. The Colts' victory wasn't exactly pretty, as Daniel Jones turned over the football three times. Meanwhile, the Commanders dismantled the Seahawks' defense, but we're not sure if Marcus Mariota can sustain his success. The fact that this game is being played in London adds another wrinkle to our predictions, making this game a true toss-up.

The Commanders are low-key trending up.

David Blough has this offense humming.

Jayden Daniels will be back sooner than expected.

Sonny Styles looks like an absolute superstar.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 30, 2026

• 2 - Jaguars at Bengals

This game will feature two very similar teams. The Jaguars and Bengals are both 2-1, and they are both carried by their top-tier offenses. Given that both teams are nearly unstoppable on offense, we're tempted to say this game will be won by whichever team plays better defense. That edge goes to the Jags, who turned over Drake Maye three times last week.

• 1 - Broncos at 49ers

This game is truly a toss-up. Seriously, go ahead and flip a coin if you want to make a prediction on this between playoff contenders. The Broncos and Niners are a combined 5-1 overall, and they're both 1-0 against a shared opponent (Rams). We're giving the edge to the undefeated 49ers, but it's also worth noting they've had a softer schedule with games against the Dolphins and Cardinals.

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