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Mike's Week 5 college football betting picks against the spread for Thursday, October 1, and Friday, October 2, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Week 4 saw chaos in the Big Ten, including a backup quarterback beating USC in L.A. We saw Florida fans even more upset that the Gators didn't fire Billy Napier earlier. We saw another chaotic ending in the Big House. More paper tigers in the SEC were exposed, but Tennessee wasn't one of them. I also had a bad beginning of the week, so I'm hoping the night games salvage it.
We have another 58 FBS vs. FBS games this weekend. We have our first multiple-game Thursday since Week 1, and only three FBS teams slumming with FCS opponents. Friday gives us three more FBS games before another loaded Saturday. We'll make those picks before we get to last week's damage.
If you have questions about any of these games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 5
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I've had trouble finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.
If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.
I gained some ground last week. I hope I didn't give it all back this week.
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's hard to look at this line and agree with what happened to the Aggies last week. New Mexico is a good team. Western Kentucky got smoked by Nevada. It checks out.
Pick: New Mexico State -2.5
North Texas (-1.5) at Tulsa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is going to be a fun one. If the Mean Green can beat a good Texas State team in San Marcos, they can handle Tulsa as well.
Pick: North Texas -1.5
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I should start putting my rankings in here instead of the AP ones. The Hokies should be ranked, and I wouldn't argue Pitt being ranked too. This is the only game since the AP poll started that two power conference teams that have started 4-0 and been unranked have faced each other.
The AP Poll is so, so broken. So is Mason Heintschel when he faces a major college football team.
Pick: Virginia Tech -3.5
Liberty (-7.5) at Delaware
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Delaware hasn't said anything about Nick Minicucci's injured knee that he suffered in the first half against Virginia last week. I would guess that he is going to miss this game. If that's the case, this is too low.
If Minicucci plays, I may end up changing this.
Pick: Liberty -7.5
Penn State (-2.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yeah....no. Northwestern christens their newly renovated stadium in style.
Pick: Northwestern +2.5
CFB Betting Picks - Week 4 Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2021-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My results will follow.
Liberty (-2.5) at Coastal Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was going well until halftime. Then the Coastal defense let Deshawn Purdie and Cam Davis do whatever they wanted.
Army (-3.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Temple had a dozen or so chances to win this game.
Navy (-6.5) at UAB: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jackson Gutierrez looked great at times, but he made a few too many mistakes. The Navy defense is still routinely getting beat on the back end.
Northwestern at (5) Indiana (-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a very inspired performance by Northwestern. That defensive line is underrated, and Aidan Chiles is not making mistakes. The Wildcats are going to beat at least one team that no one expects them to in 2026.
Clemson (-1.5) at California: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm done with Cal. The defense is awful, and they are undisciplined on both sides of the ball. Adam Mohammed is wasted on this team.
(1) Texas (-4.5) at Tennessee: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Perhaps with a more experienced quarterback, Tennessee wins this. It's not like Faizon Brandon played poorly. He still made mostly good decisions and didn't turn the ball over. However, he looked like a freshman on the last drive after Tennessee recovered an onside kick.
Illinois at (7) Ohio State (-26.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was never a game, and Ohio State still didn't cover. The Buckeyes did remember that they have two Heisman contenders.
JEREMIAH SMITH JUST PUT TOGETHER THE BIGGEST GAME OF HIS OHIO STATE CAREER.
11 REC, 205 YDS, 4 TD
CAREER HIGHS IN RECEPTIONS, RECEIVING YARDS AND RECEIVING TDS. https://t.co/X8RKUZ9IUp pic.twitter.com/hPOuyjGwba
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) September 26, 2026
Sam Houston at (11) Texas Tech (-34.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sam Houston played a really good first half. They rolled over in the second. At least I bet this at +35 for the push...
That just happened.
Austin Romaine with a pick six on consecutive defensive plays.
?: TNT pic.twitter.com/vZmuQy3N8x
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) September 26, 2026
Wake Forest at (16) Louisville (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I almost had myself talked into Wake. I should have listened. This was one of the better games of the day.
Colorado at Baylor (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still think that Nate Bennett is a better fit for this team, but DJ Lagway is a legacy, and he's expensive. Lagway had more incompletions than completions, and Baylor still won.
Virginia Tech (-14.5) at Boston College: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I should have bailed on this when I found out this game would be played in the middle of a Nor'easter. I didn't end up betting it, but I didn't come back to change the pick.
It was a spirited game by Boston College. Virginia Tech wouldn't have come close to winning this if it weren't for Jeffrey Overton Jr.
Moving with purpose ?
Today vs. Boston College, Jeff Overton recorded the sixth-highest single-game rushing total (209 yards) by a Hokie since 1987 ?@JeffreyOverton1 - 25 carries, 209 rush yards, TD ?#LetsGoHokies pic.twitter.com/Mj5Hhv1oU4
— Virginia Tech Football (@HokiesFB) September 26, 2026
San Diego State at Toledo (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's strange seeing Toledo throw the ball all over the place, but John Alan Richter is the perfect guy to do it in this offense.
Colorado State at UTSA (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
K'Saan Farrar looked really good in his second FBS start. This game was a lot of fun for someone without a vested interest in either side. We had dueling back-to-back kickoff returns for touchdowns.
There were explosive plays everywhere. This was like watching an old Big 12 game.
UNLV (-13.5) at Akron: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I've seen this movie before. Jackson Arnold turns into Tim Tebow when he plays bad teams.
Ball State at Kent State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was the Dru DeShields that I remembered from last year.
South Alabama at Kentucky (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
CJ Baxter saved this cover. Jared Hollins looked good in a hostile atmosphere in his first career start.
UCLA (-1.5) at Maryland: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known that UCLA is done making excuses with Bob Chesney as the head coach. That UCLA defense is nasty this year.
(3) Notre Dame (-27.5) at Purdue: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
CJ Carr is playing with more confidence than we saw last year, and the defense is still strong. Notre Dame is better off for having the tougher games later in the season.
Northern Illinois at Georgia State (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I wish I hadn't let the half scare me into a lower wager.
Hawaii (-3.5) at Wyoming: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How in the world is a Timmy Chang offense this bad? Micah Alejado has regressed from last year, and not just a little bit. It's significant. He seems afraid to run because he doesn't want to get hurt again. I don't blame him, but it hurts his stock.
(24) Oklahoma at (2) Georgia (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I haven't seen an Oklahoma team quit since Lincoln Riley's last game as head coach. I saw it in this game. Georgia only outgained Oklahoma by 10 yards and won by 28. That's pathetic.
If you talk to Oklahoma fans, they're ready to burn the whole thing down. I get it. I'm also not ready for that. Something was lost when Oklahoma blew a 17-point home lead to Alabama in the CFP.
What was lost was John Mateer's confidence. Our offensive line is a disaster. I won't even blame Ben Arbuckle in this one. His playcalling was much better, but the mistakes were still there.
Mistake after mistake by the same players on offense caused the team to quit. Something needs to change. I have ideas on what it should be, but I have a feeling that we're going to see the definition of insanity from this coaching staff for the rest of the year.
Oklahoma boxed itself in with a massive extension for Brent Venables. I don't think he's totally to blame, but it still falls on the head coach if he won't change anything.
(4) Mississippi at (21) Florida (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Huh. Who would have guessed that the problem at Florida was the coach? Roughly two million Florida fans knew it. The refusal to fire Billy Napier earlier stunted the growth of this team, particularly Jadan Baugh. He's the best back in the country right now.
— performances (@DefenseReplays) September 29, 2026
The Mississippi defense is gassed because the offense has trouble controlling the ball without Kewan Lacy. We saw it in the second half against LSU. It was on display for the whole game against Florida.
(15) Utah (-8.5) at Iowa State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Cyclones. I'm not sure it is. This defense has been strong all year. Utah just has too many good players on offense. The defense at least kept the team in the game. That wouldn't have happened last year.
(17) Iowa at (18) Michigan (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Who was the team wearing Iowa uniforms? The running game looked familiar. So did the defense. But this team threw two PASSING touchdowns! Is that even legal in Iowa?
This was a really strong performance by Iowa. It will be interesting to see how the defense does against an explosive team, but they still do well against slower-paced offenses.
TCU (-3.5) at Central Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
You can't blame this on Jordan Dwyer. He had 100 receiving yards in his 2026 debut. Blame Jaden Craig's two interceptions instead.
Boise State (-7.5) at Western Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Last year I felt as if there were three or four non-power teams that could make the CFP. This year it feels like there's only one.
Dylan Riley already has 93 rushing yards and a TD against Western Michigan. Boise State’s already scored more points (15) than Michigan did against the Broncos.
The race between Boise State, New Mexico, North Dakota State, and James Madison for the G6 CFP spot is going to be fun pic.twitter.com/KenB9UBHkB
— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) September 26, 2026
Connecticut at Miami (OH) (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The quarterback matchup was everything I thought it would be. Kansas transfer David McComb just made fewer mistakes than Kalieb Osborne.
New Mexico (-11.5) at New Mexico State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The final score doesn't tell the whole story. New Mexico State was lucky to only lose by 24. They scored 15 garbage points in the fourth quarter. This was total domination by the Lobos...and all three quarterbacks.
(25) Houston (-18.5) at Georgia Southern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This may have been Max Johnson's best game in seven years of college, but the Georgia Southern defense had no answer for Conner Weigman.
Vanderbilt at Auburn (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Moral victories are still a thing when you have a true freshman starting at quarterback. I don't care how highly-touted you are; there are many adjustments early in the season. It won't be long until Vanderbilt starts winning a few of these.
Wisconsin at (13) Penn State (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I came back and changed this one on Saturday morning. I didn't expect a Wisconsin outright win, but you can't say that they didn't earn it. The honeymoon is already over in Happy Valley for Matt Campbell.
Nebraska (-5.5) at Michigan State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the kind of win that gets Nebraska fans all fired up. My wife is even starting to pay attention to Nebraska football again. There is a noted paradigm shift going on in the fanbase, and it has almost everything to do with Anthony Colandrea.
South Florida (-17.5) at Bowling Green: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There is absolutely no reason for the South Florida offense to be this bad.
Delaware at Virginia (-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Delaware was struggling to keep up even with Nick Minicucci in there. All hope was lost when he went out in the second quarter.
James Madison (-6.5) at Old Dominion: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Billy Napier is better suited for smaller schools. He couldn't handle the constant scrutiny at Florida, and that's okay. He left Florida with some pretty good players when he was fired.
Central Michigan at (6) Miami (FL) (-41.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Clemson may not be a test for Miami, but it is at least a little bit of a measuring stick. If they pound Clemson as LSU did, maybe we'll start considering them among the best teams.
Louisiana (-10.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was easy money. I wish I had bet more on it.
South Carolina at (8) Alabama (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We are seeing what all the fuss was about with Keelon Russell. He nuked the Gamecocks.
Keelon Russell was making NFL THROWS all game long against South Carolina.
Russell finished the game 21/27 (78%), for 365 passing yards, and 5 TOTAL TD’s.
The Alabama QB is one of the most talented QB prospects in PROGRAM HISTORY ?? pic.twitter.com/LNwW4LIqJu
— Rookie Watch (@RookieWatxh) September 27, 2026
Two strong games may not be enough for me to proclaim him one of the best in program history, but I don't have questions about the QB slot at Alabama anymore. Russell was very impressive in this game.
Kansas State (-6.5) at Cincinnati: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Kansas State run defense was torn to shreds by Gi'Bran Payne and Cole Tabb.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Oklahoma State is looking better by the game, especially on defense. This team could go far if Drew Mestemaker could reel in the mistakes. They didn't cost him here, but they did against Tulsa and will again.
Southern Mississippi at Tulane (-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Landry Lyddy has finally found a home again. He last started for Louisiana Tech as a freshman in 2022. He was a backup at UAB for two years, and a backup at Southern Miss last year.
Lyddy's strong game helped keep the Eagles within earshot despite a monster game from Maurice Turner.
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known better.
Middle Tennessee State at Jacksonville State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Caden Creel can be dominant in Conference USA if he cuts down on the interceptions.
(23) Texas A&M at (10) LSU (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sometimes we're all a little affected by the number to the left of the team. I knew that A&M shouldn't have been ranked, and I should have bet like it. The regression of Marcel Reed needs to be studied.
(20) Oregon (-3.5) at (12) USC: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was a tough one to watch, and thankfully, it wasn't worse for Dante Moore. He still has an NFL future in front of him.
Desman Stephens celebrating and taunting after sending Dante Moore to the hospital. pic.twitter.com/PVeTrSP4HU
— BrickCenter (@BrickCenter_) September 27, 2026
This ushered in redemption for Dylan Raiola. Nebraska was about to beat USC last year when Raiola broke his leg. He tried to continue, but was forced to leave the game.
Raiola transferred out of Lincoln, but there aren't any hard feelings. Raiola wasn't a great fit in Dana Holgorsen's offense, but he is a great fit at Oregon. That looked like a guy who has his confidence back.
Arizona (-10.5) at Washington State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That stupid half. The Washington State fans are still a force to be reckoned with. Another great game from Noah Fifita, but Arizona still couldn't get the cover.
Troy at Utah State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Too many mistakes by Goose Crowder ruined Troy's lead. Grady Brosterhous took over in the second half of this game.
Appalachian State at North Carolina State (-14.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew that I didn't like that half. Maybe we need to have the conversation about Malachi Singleton being better than CJ Bailey. Who would have thought?
(19) Missouri at (24) Mississippi State (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Lost in the Kamario Taylor love fest (that he totally deserves) is just how good Fluff Bothwell has been. The Bulldogs have more than just Taylor. Can the defense hold up?
Tulsa at Arkansas (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I want to say that a healthy Baylor Hayes would have made a difference, but I don't think it would have. He can't play in the secondary.
Florida Atlantic (-13.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know that Caden Veltkamp probably doesn't have an NFL future, but I've really enjoyed watching him in college.
Missouri State at (22) SMU (-34.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
More Kevin Jennings interceptions made this game more interesting than it should have been.
Oregon State (-10.5) at UTEP: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Easy money. UTEP has been cover bait for about three years now.
Massachusetts (-4.5) at Sacramento State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I smashed this bet everywhere I could. I made damn sure I was coming out ahead last weekend. This was the most sure I've been about a bet this year.
Rice at Fresno State (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was the best game that Rice has played this season. Fresno has a lot of talented guys on that offense that most people don't know about.
Georgia Tech (-3.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Tech is a wreck. Good grief, this was ugly. Lost in that is what a beautiful game Davis Warren had.
Air Force (-5.5) at Nevada: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I knew when this went into overtime that I was sunk.
Minnesota at Washington (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was a huge first half for Drake Lindsey, and the defense held up in the second half. How much of an upset was this? Do we know?
College Football Betting Season Results
I broke even this week at 29-29, putting my season total at 96-118. I'll consider that a success since I started the Week 1-10. I went 28-19 on the rest of Saturday. Unfortunately, I think I lost points because my four-point bets struggled again.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 4-2 (14-13) = 1
2. 12-10 (37-44) = -14
3. 7-10 (32-30) = 6
4. 4-6 (9-23) = -56
5. 2-1 (5-8) = -15
I ended up losing six points this week, leaving me down 78 points for the season. I'm feeling good about this week. Let's go!
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