Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 4 - Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, More

October 3, 2026

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 4 of 2026 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

Another Sunday of NFL football awaits. Many running backs will be handed the ball on Sunday, but which backs will make the most of those opportunities and rack up big yardage totals while also finding the end zone?

Those are the backs we're targeting in our NFL DFS contests! We don't have to worry about Jahmyr Gibbs (Sunday night) or Bijan Robinson (Monday night) on the main slate, but there are still a lot of very compelling options at multiple price points.

I believe that I have a good mix of high-priced studs in smash spots and some potentially less heavily-rostered pivots. I added an extra section for the other positive matchups that I couldn't feature, too. Let's get to it! Here are my top four matchups for Week 4.

Week 4 Running Back Matchups

Back for Week 4, these are my "Thunder Dan Matchup Grades," which incorporate data from both Pro Football Focus and the DVOA ratings found at FTN. I've made a few tweaks to the model this week, and I do feel pretty good about how closely they represent the matchups. We also have three weeks of data now, and larger sample sizes always help our data become more reliable and predictable over time.

Remember, we are not evaluating the backs' elusiveness, explosiveness, or ability to break tackles. We are looking at the quality of their blockers, their offensive schemes, projected role and usage, and then finally taking an educated guess on the projected game script for each back this week.

This data is fresh from the first two weeks of this season only, so we have to also take it with a grain of salt. Ideally, in these first few weeks, we should look at both last year's data and this season's small sample size to see who pops when we blend the two.

Christian McCaffrey ($7,700 DK, $8,800 FD)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos

I usually try to avoid digging in on the chalkiest back on the slate when I can, but McCaffrey's spot against the Broncos is definitely worth highlighting.

Let's start with the Niners' offense, which has been twice as efficient as the next-closest offense in the NFL this season on EPA metrics. A lot of that has been a product of the passing game (in which McCaffrey has a substantial role as well), but they also rank sixth in EPA/Rush (per Sumer Sports).

McCaffrey is discounted here in terms of what we usually expect his price to be, mainly because he hasn't had the type of workload that we expect from him last season. He's carried the ball just 35 times through the Niners' first three games, but 15 of those came last week against the Cardinals. It appears that San Francisco is finally ready to start leaning on him a bit more after easing him into the mix to start the year.

McCaffrey has a solid group of blockers in front of him and benefits from the elite run scheme implemented by Kyle Shanahan. The vast majority of McCaffrey's carries come on either inside zone or outside zone runs - Shanahan's staples. We saw Kenneth Walker III gash this Broncos defense in Week 1 in a similar scheme, and then Kyren Williams did it again last week with a Rams' running game that is very inside-zone heavy.

This game has a high total (48) and a tight spread. We have yet to see a true CMC ceiling game due to the Niners having big leads in each of the first three games and monitoring his workload. Perhaps this is the week that he erupts for a classic 150+ scrimmage yards and two touchdowns outing. Fading him as chalk is simply not advised!

James Cook III ($7,400 DK, $8,200 FD)

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Who's ready for a pivot? I have not seen anyone around the industry touting James Cook this week, and rostership projections have him somewhere between 10th and 12th among running backs on the main slate.

Wait, what? The Bills are touchdown favorites at home this week against a struggling New England Patriots team, and Cook is going to come in around 8-10% rostership?

If Josh Allen wasn't stealing touchdowns at a crazy rate, Cook would be the talk of the league right now. He bounced back from an early fumble last week to run for 154 yards and a score as the Bills moved to 3-0.

Most rushes this season over 10 yards

James Cook 12
Jahmyr Gibbs 11
Kenneth Walker 10
Jonathan Taylor 9
Bijan Robinson 8 pic.twitter.com/zc1MF4BsFh

— PFF (@PFF) September 29, 2026

He's averaging nearly six yards per carry and trails only Kenneth Walker III in total rushing EPA among qualified backs. His matchup rating is the highest on the main slate and trails only Gibbs vs. Carolina across all Week 4 games.

Last week was the second week in a row that he handled 20+ carries, and it's very clear that the Bills want to keep pounding opponents into submission, even if they have allowed Allen to throw it more often on early downs. The Patriots enter with one of the better pass defense grades in the NFL, but rank just 19th against the run so far. Bhayshul Tuten ran for nearly five yards per carry last week.

The last time he faced the Patriots (last December), Cook ran for 107 yards on 22 carries and scored three touchdowns. Those touchdowns are coming for Cook, who still leads Allen in red zone rushing share rate (53% to 47%). I think the Bills roll up on the Patriots in this one, creating a positive game script for Cook to "cook" this New England rush defense.

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Kyren Williams ($5,900 DK, $7,900 FD) 

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Let's call this the "DraftKings Special" since Williams is only the 14th-most expensive running back on DK and is priced more affordably than Bucky Irving, Aaron Jones Sr., and Chase Brown despite coming off his best performance of the season against the Broncos.

Williams ran for 88 yards on 15 carries and added another 70 yards receiving on six receptions, totaling 158 scrimmage yards in Week 3. He went over 100 scrimmage yards just five times all of last season as Blake Corum took on more of the workload over the course of the season.

Kyren 🌪️ Williams pic.twitter.com/xwTKdlYxcL

— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2026

But I really like Williams this week, even if he's maxed out at around a 65% share of the running back touches. This offense is so dangerous, and they'll get Puka Nacua back into the mix this week as well. Williams and the Rams face an Eagles defense on a short week that just allowed 125 yards on the ground to D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai last week.

While the Eagles have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, they rank just 14th against the run. I'll take my chances with Williams and his highly efficient production on a per-touch basis in what is basically a neutral matchup.

I think he finds paydirt at least once in this one, as he leads the team with an 80% goal-line carry share. With goal-line carries, we're talking about carries inside the 10-yard line, as opposed to inside the 20-yard line (red zone).

Bhayshul Tuten ($5,600 DK, $6,800 FD)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Perhaps the sneakiest of spots this week is Tuten, who is a value on both sites, unlike Williams. Tuten projects for sub-5% rostership this week, even though he's coming off a season-high in carries and yardage (15-73) in Week 3 against the Patriots.

Concerns about Chris Rodriguez Jr. usurping the goal-line carries have been put to rest, as Tuten has a touchdown run in two straight games. Rodriguez got one last week, too, but late in the game after it was already salted away.

The Jags running game as a whole has looked much better this season than last year, when Travis Etienne Jr. struggled to do much on a per-carry basis. The offensive line has graded out better thus far, and Tuten's metrics have been solid as well. He's looked explosive, averaging 4.75 YPC and could be in store for his best performance yet against a Bengals front that was just gashed by Jaylen Warren (another underrated, explosive back) last week for 127 yards on the ground.

The Jags are slight road underdogs here, but I think they are the better team and that they'll likely attack Cincinnati's front seven early and often with Tuten in the run game. If you're looking for a great large-field GPP play, Tuten has upside here, and please (if you haven't already) smash the button on his rushing prop that I featured in one of my betting columns already this week!

Other Positive Matchups

Derrick Henry vs. Tennessee (66.5 rating)

Henry is going to pop most weeks, but because he's expensive and not a top-3 matchup, I chose to feature some other players. He's certainly got a massive ceiling with his ability to rack up touchdowns in bunches. I am not playing up the revenge narrative here, though. No narratives allowed!

D'Andre Swift vs. NY Jets (67.2 rating)

Swift was on the injury report this week, but is likely to play Sunday. My only issue with using him in DFS is that his price keeps going up, despite the fact that Kyle Monangai continues to get 10+ carries a game. He's a GPP-only play as a result.

Kenneth Walker III vs. Las Vegas (62.6 rating)

Walker isn't in the same type of smash spot he was the last two weeks, but we've seen him go off in tougher matchups before. I think the Raiders will keep this game close, which probably bodes well for Walker's usage. He's an interesting pivot off the chalkier McCaffrey.

Jeremiyah Love at NY Giants (58.0 rating)

Arizona's offensive line has been improved this year, and while the Giants' run defense has been better, they still rate as a below-average unit against the run. Love is coming off his best game as a pro, and it would make sense for the Cardinals to feed him in this spot.

Good luck and thanks for reading.

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