NFL Best Bets, Player Props for ProphetX (Week 4)

October 1, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo's expert NFL Week 4 best bets and top player props for ProphetX. Take advantage of peer-to-peer odds with no vig and lock in your trades today!

Prop betting is easily my favorite way to get action on professional sports these days. Sure, I still play DFS and set my season-long lineups, but I love digging into a fresh baseball, football, or basketball slate and trying to find the best player props on which to wager.

If you're tired of getting juiced-up odds on traditional sportsbooks, then consider the sports prediction market! Our partners at ProphetX have constructed an excellent platform and are offering some of the best odds in the industry!

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for Week 4 on ProphetX!

What is ProphetX?

ProphetX is an exciting platform and one of the top peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. Since users are technically playing against each other, and not the house, there are consistently better positions to be taken on sporting events and outcomes, and therefore more potential profits for correct positions.

Users can also set their own price on markets and wait for other users to match them. ProphetX allows users a lot of flexibility in that regard and an opportunity to try and corner their own market.

ProphetX is legal in 48 states and is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

All odds listed are from ProphetX and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs. Denver Broncos (52.1%)

The Broncos have ripped off two straight comeback wins, but now have to head to San Francisco to face the most impressive team in the NFL through three weeks.

Yes, the Niners are that team. They are scoring points with ease on their way to a 3-0 start, and their advanced metrics blow every other team out of the water so far.

Some may point to their Week 1 win over the Rams as a product of jet lag or attempt to argue that they have had cupcake matchups against Miami and Arizona the last two weeks. And both of those things may be true, to an extent. But this looks like a complete football team that is markedly better on both offense and defense this year.

I am not sure we can say that about the Broncos. They've been in the middle of the pack on both sides of the ball.

This will definitely be the Niners' toughest test this season, but I think they're up for the challenge. They're firing on all cylinders and have the type of offensive firepower to outscore this Denver team.

They've also been very good at home, covering this spread in five of their last six games. I have the true spread here around San Francisco -7, so getting them at -2.5 is a gift and a no-brainer bet for me.

ProphetX Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to get $20 in bonus cash after you deposit and play through $10.

You also get six free months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to ProphetX right here!

NFL Passing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from ProphetX and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Brock Purdy OVER 22.9 Passing Yards (

Since we like the Niners to win (and cover at home), it's pretty reasonable to think that Purdy has another efficient day at the office.

He's been so effective this year in Shanahan's system, as he's managed to average 263 yards passing per game on only 20 completions per game. His critics, who have called him a game manager in a great offensive system, haven't watched him play lately. He's been dropping dimes and threading the needle with impressive accuracy this year.

BROCK PURDY TO Mike Evans EXTENDS THE LEAD@AZvsSF on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/ScREsrmsVw

— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2026

He's surrounded by solid weapons at every skill position. He has the premier pass-catching back to throw to out of the backfield, an elite tight end at his disposal with George Kittle back in the fold, and two veterans in Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel who are proving they are still quite capable.

Matthew Stafford just threw for 390 yards last week against this Denver defense, which has not been nearly as effective as they were last season. Look for Purdy to get over this very manageable number as the Niners move to 4-0 in this one.

Rushing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from ProphetX and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Bhayshul Tuten OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (52.3%)

Another week where we get a stupidly low number for Tuten, and I am absolutely going to pounce on the over again!  Tuten has cleared this bar in all three games this season, rushing for 66, 65, and 73 yards against tougher run defenses than the one he will face this week in Cincinnati.

Bhayshul Tuten has forced 21 missed tackles (4th most) - with 15 of those coming on outside runs

He gets the Bengals in Week 4, who have a 40% missed tackles rate on outside runs, 6th-highest in football

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 28, 2026

We just saw Jaylen Warren gash this Bengals team for 127 yards on the ground last week. The Jags would be wise to feed Tuten in the run game, and with how well he's run the ball this year, I expect them to do just that.

Devig Calculator

Want to check what a fair price should be without the "vig" that sportsbooks build into the bet?

Use our devig calculator to see what the price SHOULD be on either side of that bet, how much vig is being charged, and then head over to ProphetX to make your wager!

NFL Receiving Prop Bets

All odds listed are from ProphetX and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Zay Flowers OVER 69.5 receiving yards (51.9%)

Flowers returned to action last week and immediately regained his WR1 (target hog) status by going 5-84 on six targets and a 30% target share against the Cowboys. He's averaging 117 yards per game on just five catches per contest.

He has another full week now to get even healthier ahead of the Ravens matchup with the Titans' 27th-ranked pass defense.

He's been incredibly efficient this year in the two games he's played with the fourth-best EPA/TGT rate in the NFL (1.71). Is regression coming, or is he just really good? I tend to think it's the latter, and this is a matchup that he can definitely win.

He doesn't need a huge volume of targets to smash this number; he can get there on five or six catches, so the 11.5-point spread and potential for a run-heavy game script don't concern me.

Keenan Allen OVER 36.5 receiving yards (52.8%)

Our resident matchup expert Corbin Young loves this matchup for the Commanders' pass-catchers against the Colts in London on Sunday, and I strongly agree.

Washington has been a pass-funnel defense, slowing down opposing run games and forcing teams to throw the ball. They've allowed huge games to CeeDee Lamb and Jaxon Smith-Njigba the last two weeks and enter this one with the 20th-rated pass defense.

Keenan Allen is no longer the alpha receiver he once was, but he should see plenty of targets this week as the Colts continue to lean on him and Josh Downs as their primary receivers, along with tight end Tyler Warren.

Allen went 6-for-63 on nine targets last week with a 26% target share. I expect he'll be heavily involved again this week, so smash the button on this over.

Good luck if you're tailing these bets, and thanks for reading.

More DFS Analysis and Lineup Picks