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Jeremy's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 22 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
It's time for the Week 22 edition of our Unlikely Aces column for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. In this piece, we discuss surprising pitchers who are going above and beyond expectations, providing your team with unlikely ace production that not many were expecting. Some performances are more sustainable than others, so we'll dive into each pitcher to see how likely it is for them to maintain their recent form.
Starting pitching is by far the most volatile and risky position in fantasy, as every year plenty of top arms are sidelined with injuries. Luckily, there are also plenty of waiver wire gems and post-draft breakouts that allow fantasy managers to fill the gaps and hopefully bring home a championship trophy.
This week, we're focusing on Aaron Nola, Clay Holmes, and Zac Thornton. Although they may not all be available in deeper leagues, knowing their future outlook is crucial as you make critical start-and-sit decisions in the fantasy playoffs. Without further ado, let's get into whether these pitchers can keep up their recent form. For reference, all roster percentages listed are taken from Yahoo leagues.
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Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
66% Rostered
Aaron Nola pitched well on Tuesday night against the Mariners, allowing two runs on three hits and three walks while striking out seven over six innings. This was a solid outing in its own right, but it also continued an even more dominant extended stretch for the veteran. In the recent weeks when Zack Wheeler has begun to falter for the Phillies, Nola has turned back the clock to look like the reliable workhorse he was for most of his career.
This was his sixth consecutive start of allowing three runs or less, and the fourth consecutive outing where he recorded more strikeouts than innings pitched. Over that six-start span dating back to July 28th, he's allowed only 10 runs over 34 ⅔ innings while striking out 41. This recent stretch has lowered his ERA for the season down to 5.03, which shows just how bad of a pitcher he was for the first four months of the year.
Especially after posting a 6.01 ERA in 17 starts in 2025, it truly looked like the 33-year-old may have used up the last of his fantasy relevancy. This recent performance is far better than anyone could have hoped for out of the righty, who is not only usable in fantasy again, but looks like a potential difference-maker.
Nola's xFIP for the season sits at a much better mark of 3.75, and his 32.4% chase rate and 28.1% whiff rate both stand out as strengths. On Tuesday night, his knuckle curve was the star of the show, as he threw it 34% of the time for a 40% whiff rate. That has been a recurring theme as of late, as the pitch recorded a 55% whiff rate or higher over each of the past four starts prior to this one.
Aaron Nola, Wicked 78mph Knuckle Curve. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/qFXUGjc9bz
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 26, 2026
The extended slump left him on waivers in many leagues at some point this season, but his roster rate has steadily climbed back to 66 percent. While he's likely not available anymore in deeper leagues, he could still be free for the taking in shallow formats.
Verdict: Nola is worth an add wherever he is available, and should be trusted in your lineups moving forward. This is a pitcher who was regarded as a fantasy ace for multiple seasons, and was still a highly regarded near-ace for many more. I don't think he'll get back to that level, but he's shown he can contribute as a solid mid-rotation arm.
Clay Holmes, Chicago Cubs
49% Rostered
Clay Holmes was great on Tuesday night against the Diamondbacks, twirling seven shutout innings with five strikeouts. He allowed two hits and walked two. This was the third straight start of allowing one run or less, as he's shown almost no rust after missing two and a half months with a fractured fibula.
There were some question marks surrounding the righty, as he was returning from the lengthy injury while also debuting for a brand new team, after being shipped to Chicago at the deadline. He hasn't missed a beat, looking like the same effective pitcher that he was in April and May, as he now holds a 2.26 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 13 starts and 68 ⅔ innings.
He still hasn't gotten back to being the strikeout pitcher he was with the Yankees, as the 33-year-old only has nine strikeouts in 23 innings since returning from the injured list. It's not much better for the season as a whole, as he entered last night's start with an 11th percentile whiff rate of 20.0% and an 18th percentile strikeout rate of 18.0%.
Still, he manages to thrive by keeping balls on the ground. Despite a poor hard-hit rate of 41.9%, he keeps his opponent at bay by holding them to a 4.9% barrel rate and 59.6% ground ball rate. That makes him a good fit for his new home, Wrigley Field, as even when the wind is blowing out, there's nothing to worry about if the ball isn't in the air.
Verdict: Holmes has been consistent enough to warrant adding and starting in most leagues down the stretch. He should get plenty of win chances on the Cubs, which is a bonus on top of his stellar ratios. It is a bit of a risky profile that could unravel quickly, as it's fair to expect some WHIP regression from someone who posted a 1.30 mark in each of the last two seasons. Still, with only one month left, now is the time to ride the hot streak while it lasts.
Zac Thornton, New York Mets
22% Rostered
If the first two players in this piece weren't on waivers in your league, Zac Thornton has a much better chance of being available. Coming in at only 22 percent rostered, he's been pitching much better than you might expect. That includes Tuesday night, when he delivered an excellent performance against the Brewers.
The 24-year-old allowed just one run on seven hits and no walks over six innings, while striking out four. This was his ninth straight start of allowing three runs or less, as the only start where he allowed more was when he gave up four runs in his first appearance of the season. It does feel like cherry-picking stats a little, as four of those nine starts included exactly three earned runs, which isn't exactly ace performance.
However, three of the starts were also shutouts, which has led to a very favorable 2.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through ten starts and 56 ⅓ innings. While it's been a very successful run, it isn't because of dominating stuff, as the rookie entered Tuesday night with a 19.6% whiff rate and 18.0% strikeout rate, which both rank toward the bottom of the league.
Zac Thornton has a 2.88 ERA in his first 10 MLB starts pic.twitter.com/j0319fh38x
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) August 26, 2026
The only metric that he really stands out in is control, as his 6.3% walk rate is well above average, but everything else is not so pretty. With a 40.0% hard-hit rate, 9.4% barrel rate, and 40.9% groundball rate, it's surprising that he continues to be so effective. His ERA indicators support the concern of regression, as his xERA of 4.85 and xFIP of 3.97 are both much worse than his actual stats.
Verdict: It's fair to say that Thornton is pitching over his head right now, but it's also a possibility that he could ride out this hot streak for the final month of the year. I wouldn't call him a priority add in shallower leagues, but he's been a waiver wire gem in deep formats and can be worth streaming in good matchups in standard-sized leagues.
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