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Thunder Dan Palyo's late-round quarterback draft targets for fantasy football. His top QBs with league-winning upside, including Jordan Love, Jared Goff, and more.
There have been years when I've chased the top tier of elite "Konami code" quarterbacks in the early rounds. This is not going to be one of those years.
The quarterback position is pretty deep this year, and I'm comfortable letting my leaguemates spend an early round pick on Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, while I stock up on the few elite receivers and bellcow backs.
If you are going to wait on quarterback, why not wait as long as possible? In this article, I'll feature four QBs who are being taken after pick 100 in drafts who project as reliable weekly starters in fantasy football this season.
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Why Late Round Quarterback?
It's the same reason I pay down at the quarterback in DFS every week - because QB scoring is relatively flat when compared to other positions. Don't believe me, then check out this chart that I made to illustrate this concept! Here you can see the top-30 players at each offensive position in descending order by how many fantasy points they scored per game on average (half-PPR scoring).
After the top six quarterbacks, there appears to be a sizeable dropoff, but it's only 1.5 points per game that separates Trevor Lawrence (number six) from Caleb Williams and Jalen Hurts, who tied for seventh. But it really levels off after that, with QB7 (19.1) averaging only four more points per game than QB24, who in theory should be the worst backup QB rostered in a 12-team league.
Meanwhile, scoring at all three other positions drops off much more dramatically after the top-tier players. The gap between RB1 (Christian McCaffrey - 21.5) and RB7 (Derrick Henry - 16.0) is greater than the gap between RB8 (Chase Brown - 14.6) and RB30 (Tony Pollard - 10.0).
There's a quicker drop at receiver from the ultra-elite tier of Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the second tier of Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Rashee Rice. But the WR position really flattened out at WR11 (Tee Higgins and A.J. Brown - 12.1), who averaged only 2.4 more points per game than WR30 (Emeka Egbuka and Parker Washington - 9.7). We'd see a little more variation in PPR formats, but it doesn't change the argument here that your chances of snagging a high-end running back or receiver are far greater in the early rounds.
For me, it's an exercise in opportunity cost. Think of it this way. If you invest the 20th pick on Josh Allen, you're passing up an opportunity to draft a receiver like George Pickens or a running back like Kyren Williams, both of whom averaged 14.4 points per game last season.
If you waited to draft someone like Jared Goff at pick 114, you can use that late-second or early-third round pick on Pickens or Williams. The team that takes Allen early is left choosing between someone like Jordan Addison at receiver or Jacory-Croskey Merritt at the same ADP range as Goff.
I'll take Goff and Pickens or Goff and Williams (32.3 combined fantasy points per game) than Allen and Addison or Allen and JCM (30 combined ppg).
Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings
Yahoo Default Rank: 110, QB14
So you want a quarterback who is a running threat, but you'd rather not count on Malik Willis on what could be one of the worst offenses in the NFL? Kyler is your guy! While he didn't win much in Arizona, he still up stats. His per-17-game career averages include 4,000 yards passing, 24 touchdowns, a 67% completion rate, 624 yards rushing and six rushing touchdowns.
Not a lot of quarterbacks can make these types of plays with their legs.
Kyler. Murray. Wow.
CARvsAZ on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/DykwefAuk8
— NFL (@NFL) September 14, 2025
If Kevin O'Connell got a QB11 finish from Sam Darnold in 2024 and a QB7 finish from Kirk Cousins in 2023, who's to say he can't do it with Kyler Murray, too? He's certainly got weapons at his disposal with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, as well as what should be a solid run game with Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones.
There's really no disputing Murray's talent, even if we do have reason to question his focus and mental approach to the game the last few years. If he's bought into a fresh start with a new coach and a more talented roster, I think he could easily finish inside the top ten this year.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Yahoo Default Rank: 117, QB17
What does Goff have to do to get some respect in the fantasy community? The last four years in Detroit, he's averaged 4,551 yards passing, 32.5 passing touchdowns, and just 9.8 interceptions while completing 68% of his throws. His per-game averages in that span were 17.1, 17.7, 19.8, and 17.9 points per game.
The passing touchdowns are very sustainable, as only Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott attempted more throws in the red zone last year than Goff. His new offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, comes over from Arizona, where he got elevated Jacoby Brissett to a QB17 finish last year with far less talent, and the Cardinals led the league in red zone pass rate last season with a whopping 68.5% mark.
Just look at these throws by Jared Goff.
Absolutely beautiful. pic.twitter.com/mM31GRCZYb
— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔱𝔯𝔬𝔦𝔱 𝔗𝔦𝔪𝔢𝔰 📰 (@the_det_times) August 18, 2026
He offers no rushing upside, but he captains one of the best offenses in football and plays half of his games in a dome. With an elite pass-catching back in Jahmyr Gibbs, expert route-runner Amon-Ra St. Brown, stud tight end Sam LaPorta, and downfield threat of Jameson Williams - Goff has some elite weapons at his disposal.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Yahoo Default Rank: 130, QB19
Jordan Love averaged just 16.1 fantasy points per game last season, good for a QB21 finish. He threw for only eight fewer yards than he did in 2024, but cut his interceptions down from 11 to just six. He missed two games last season and in 2024, with injuries, but has been pretty durable since taking over as the starter in Green Bay in 2023.
Jordan Love on His Only Drive Tonight:
5/7, 56 YDS, 1 TD, 0 INT, 134.5 Rating pic.twitter.com/iOqzOWletV
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) August 22, 2026
I think the 4000+ passing yards and 32 touchdowns that we saw from Love in 2023 are well within reach this year, but with even greater efficiency. Love was the second-most efficient passer in the league last season (behind Drake Maye) in terms of EPA per dropback. He did a great job protecting the football, too, with only a 4.3% sack rate and 1.4% interception rate.
But it's time to take the training wheels off this offense in Green Bay. They've been a run-first, ball-control offense under Matt LaFleur, especially the last two seasons when the Packers ranked 30th and 27th in pass attempts.
Love has proven that he can put up big games when he's asked to do more. He had three 300+ yard passing games last season and tossed 10 touchdowns across those three games. He has legit downfield threats in Christian Watson and Matthew Golden who can take the top of the defense, and gets Tucker Kraft back at the tight end position to bolster his receiving corps.
As much as the Packers want to run the football, I think they're likely to find themselves in the position to have to throw the ball more this year. And that's a good thing, especially if you want to invest in a big year from Love.
Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
Yahoo Default Rank: 136, QB21
As much as I also like Baker Mayfield for a bounce-back year in Tampa at the same ADP range, I am really targeting the second-year Saints quarterback Shough in drafts this season.
Shough is going to turn 27 years old in September, so he's not the same type of "young quarterback" as Cam Ward. Shough spent seven years in college football as a part of three different programs, but only started one full season at Louisville before being drafted by the Saints in the second round last year.
He didn't start last season as the starter, and he took some lumps in his first few starts after replacing Spencer Rattler. But Shough played much better down the stretch, throwing for 240 yards or more in seven of his final eight games and a 9:4 TD: INT.
“Who do you want to be?”
- @tylershough2 #Saints | @CoxComm pic.twitter.com/r3lut44mgx
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) August 22, 2026
He showed some surprising mobility, too, running for 186 yards on the ground and three scores. His head coach, Kellen Moore, who maximized the talents of Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts as an offensive coordinator, loves to play fast, as the Saints ranked first in the NFL in tempo last season.
I look for Shough to take another step forward this season. He's already developed a nice rapport with Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson, and should get rookie Jordyn Tyson back at some point in the season. New Orleans added Travis Etienne Jr. in the offseason, who was a solid pass-catcher in Jacksonville last year, and still have Alvin Kamara in this mix, too.
I really like the Saints to be an improved football team this year, and Shough to build upon his strong finish to the 2025 season.
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