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Michael F Florio's favorite breakout RB candidates in the middle and later rounds. His list of deep sleeper running backs to win your 2026 fantasy league.
Breakouts win leagues. Fantasy football differs from other sports in the sense that a few players really can make-or-break your week and season. It is not like baseball, where you want to build a deep team to compete over a very long season.
In football, the lineup is smaller, and the scoring is more big-play reliant. If you hit on a middle- or late-round pick that breaks out, your team becomes a true contender.
Last year, backs like Travis Etienne Jr., Javonte Williams, Kenny Gainwell, Rico Dowdle, and Quinshon Judkins helped elevate rosters to championship contenders. This year, a new batch of RBs will do the same.
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Middle Round Running Back Breakout Candidates
Bhayshul Tuten is a back I am going all in on this season. Tuten is a very talented back, who I believe was drafted to take over in year two. Last season, Tuten had the highest rate of yards after contact of all backs. He also forced missed tackles at the second-highest rate among RBs (31 percent). Lastly, he had the seventh-highest rush success rate among backs (47 percent).
In a small sample size, he showed he can be effective at the goal line. Liam Coen has spoken him up as a short-yardage runner this preseason. He also rated better as a receiver than LeQuint Allen Jr.
As receivers in 2025
- Tuten: 14 tgt, 10 rec, 79 yds, 2 TDs, 124.7 rating, 71% catch, 18% target rate, 84 YAC, 1.0 yds per route, 0.26 EPA/tgt
- Allen: 11 tgt, 10 rec, 54 yds, 0 TD, 87.1 rating, 91% catch, 9% target rate, 65 YAC, 0.4 yds per route, -0.46 EPA/tgt https://t.co/uGsznFwRO7
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 8, 2026
Tuten also is extremely fast and showed in the playoffs, on his handful of touches, that he can be a very explosive runner. That home run hitting ability is a big reason why I am expecting him to break out.
That explosiveness gives him a chance to break out, even if the Jags were to mix in the other two backs. However, that is a narrative we have heard with the Jaguars and Coen before.
It was the same with the Jags backfield at this time a year ago, when Coen listed co-starters in the preseason. Etienne saw nearly 300 touches and finished as the RB10 overall. In 2024, when Coen was with the Bucs, Rachaad White was the starter at the start of the season. That year, Bucky Irving blossomed into a league winner.
In 2022, Coen, then with Sean McVay and the Rams, listed co-starters in the preseason. Cam Akers went on to have a career-high in touches and turned into a league winner late in the season. We have seen talent rise to the top in this system. This is an RB system that has consistently produced for fantasy.
Plus, I think the third-down talk is being overblown. Last season, the Jags threw to their RBs 31 times on first down, 35 times on second down, and just 11 times on third down. Allen, who is a great pass blocker, will be on the field largely to block on third downs. Allen literally earned targets at the lowest rate of all backs last year.
I believe the market is misvaluing the third-down role here, and that is preventing Tuten’s ADP from climbing right now. If you want Tuten, enjoy that.
I expect Tuten to lead the Jags in rushing and receiving production, with some involvement near the goal line. It may take a couple of weeks, but I expect Tuten to rise to the top here, and like previous Coen backs, blossom into a league-winner type.
Cam Skattebo is a favorite of mine that I fully expected to be out on due to injury. However, if he falls outside the top 20 RBs, typically in the fifth round, I am in. Skattebo saw elite usage last season. He averaged 22 touches per game as a starter, dominated goal-line usage, and can be used in the passing game. There are not many backs with that kind of role these days.
We saw last season that, when healthy, he has breakout capabilities. He was performing at a top-5 fantasy back level before getting injured. On top of that, Tyrone Tracy Jr is a late-round pick, so you can cover your bases and handcuff Skattebo without having to give up too much draft capital. The upside, at cost, makes Skattebo a risk/reward pick worth taking a shot on.
TreVeyon Henderson is a player I have pounded the table before in the past. I still very much believe in his talent. We saw it on full display last season when given the chance. Last season, he averaged over 20 PPR PPG in games he saw 15-plus touches. He tied the all-time record with four 50-plus-yard TD runs. We know he is extremely explosive and can thrive if given the chance.
Rhamondre Stevenson is still there, which is suppressing Henderson’s ADP. Following a rookie campaign where he eclipsed 1,100 yards and scored 11 TDs, his ADP is cheaper than it was before he ever played an NFL snap. That seems like a buying opportunity to me. Especially since we now have proof of concept that he can perform at a high level when given a chance.
X is Rhamondre Stevenson
Y is TreVeyon HendersonIn case you were wondering, I am very much so still a believer! https://t.co/ng9WYajpWf
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 5, 2026
Early reports out of camp indicate that Stevenson is expected to remain heavily utilized in the passing game. That will hold Henderson back. However, Henderson thrived as both a receiver and pass blocker in college. He spoke at the Super Bowl about how that was the biggest learning curve jumping to the NFL. A year-two jump there is possible.
Henderson is being drafted around where he finished last season, as a low-end top-24 RB. I would argue that is much closer to his floor than ceiling. That creates a buying opportunity on a back that, if given a chance, still brings league-winning upside.
Jadarian Price is in a great situation to break out as a rookie. The first-round pick went to Seattle, which ran the ball at the highest rate in the NFL last year. He went to a Seahawks team that lost Kenneth Walker and likely will be without Zach Charbonnet to start the season. Even when Charbonnet returns, Price brings upside as the more explosive runner of the two.
Dating back to 2010, 59 percent of RBs drafted in the first round scored 192 PPR points. To put that into perspective, Kenneth Walker III scored 192 PPR points last year. Price, who was little used in the passing game in college, could reach further heights if he can exceed expectations there. Word out of Seahawks camp has been that he is surprising in that regard.
Jonathon Brooks is gaining a ton of hype and for good reason. I have not been able to quit him since he ran for over 1,100 yards and 10 TDs in just 10 games in his final year of college. Brooks, if he can get back to his pre-injury form, is a special runner who drew very lofty player comps coming out of college.
Originally, we thought Chuba Hubbard, who we did see lose the starting gig in 2025, would begin the year as the starter. The expectation was Brooks could steal the lead gig as the season went on, but Hubbard is now week-to-week with a hamstring injury. The runway for Brooks to be the lead back from the get-go has now opened up.
I originally had Brooks ranked over Hubbard, but after the news, I moved him into the tier with Henderson, Price, and others such as David Montgomery, Judkins, and D'Andre Swift. That may seem high, but the upside is immense with Brooks.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is gaining steam but still very much worth the price in drafts. Bill played well as a rookie, even if he failed to live up to the expectations the fantasy community put on him. He was top 10 in explosive run rate, yards after contact per carry, and missed tackles forced rate.
There are areas he needs to grow, such as his pass blocking and receiving ability. Word out of Commanders camp is he has made strides there. Even if White handles that work, the Commanders are not a typical offense. Jayden Daniels has thrown to RBs at a well below average rate in his career.
1 is Jacory Croskey-Merritt
2 is Rachaad White https://t.co/0Lnd9J7jgl— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) July 27, 2026
With a QB like Daniels, I prefer the better runner, which is Bill. Running in this system, if he sees goal-line work and a slight uptick in pass volume, he brings breakout upside.
Late Round Running Back Breakout Candidates
Nicholas Singleton was a prospect I liked a lot during my NFL Draft process. He is a dual-threat type of weapon who reminded me of Tevin Coleman. In four years at Penn State, he went for nearly 4,500 scrimmage yards, 54 TDs, and 102 catches. I think he can contribute in a number of ways at the NFL level, with the only concern being how much of a workload he can handle.
However, he fell into a great situation in Tennessee. Tony Pollard has been fine for the Titans, but he certainly has not been anything more than that. Tyjae Spears has failed to live up to expectations. Plus, both of those are old-regime players. Singleton, who has received strong reviews in camp, likely starts the year behind one or both, but certainly can become a weekly contributor or even steal the gig.
He can easily outlive his ADP if he is given that chance.
MarShawn Lloyd has been more hype than production so far in his career due to injuries. Still, the former third-round pick entered the league with a lot of fanfare after going for over 1,000 scrimmage yards in 10 games at USC. In his final two college seasons, he scored 20 touchdowns.
Josh Jacobs has a potential suspension hanging over his head and has been banged up a little at camp. On top of that, his metrics have trended down as of late. If given the opportunity, Lloyd has breakout potential in a strong Packers offense.
Keaton Mitchell has always been a favorite of mine. Mitchell has flashed before with a high-explosive running style. His biggest sin in Baltimore was playing behind Derrick Henry. Still, he flashed when called upon. He has a 59 percent career success rate as a runner and a 79 percent catch rate.
Chargers OC Mike McDaniel has talked up Mitchell’s receiving ability this offseason, and we have seen it on display in camp. Mitchell is a top handcuff with breakout upside if Hampton misses time. He could carve out a large enough receiving role to have standalone flex value as well.
GET 🗣️ BACK 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/5bKFldZoUz
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) August 8, 2026
Jaydon Blue was featured in this article last year. He certainly did not break out, but the potential is still there. Blue is an explosive runner who has the chance to be the passing-down back for the Cowboys. Williams is coming off a career season, but he did start to revert back to his normal form in the second half. Plus, he has never been the face of health.
If Blue was to see passing downs, he could carve out standalone value. If Williams was to miss time, Blue could catapult to RB2 status with higher weekly upside due to his big-play ability.
Jonah Coleman is an NFL-ready back with a ton of college experience. Coleman has the chops to be a three-down back if given the chance. He will start the year behind J.K. Dobbins and likely R.J. Harvey. Dobbins has struggled to stay on the field, though, so an opportunity can clearly emerge.
I am not ready to write off Harvey just yet, but he did struggle running up the middle as a rookie. If Dobbins missed time, we would likely see a committee approach between the two. Passing downs would determine who wins out for fantasy purposes, but whoever won out would bring breakout upside. Harvey just goes too high for me to label him a late-round upside pick. You get the idea though!
The 49ers backup RBs bring breakout upside, given how much of an injury risk Christian McCaffrey is coming off of a 450-touch season. The issue is, we do not have clarity over who exactly will be the backup. Jordan James opened as the favorite, but has dealt with a fractured rib. Third-round pick Kaelon Black is dealing with a groin injury, while Isaac Guerendo recovers from a torn pec.
You will have to monitor this situation throughout draft season, but we have seen many backup RBs succeed in the Kyle Shanahan system. That gives whoever wins the backup gig breakout upside.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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2026 Player Decisions. Today's focus is on specific players -- Bhayshul Tuten, Cam Skattebo, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jadarian Price, Jonathon Brooks, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Nicholas Singleton, MarShawn Lloyd, Keaton Mitchell, Jaydon Blue, Jonah Coleman. These are some common searches for 2026 fantasy football drafts.
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