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Zach's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/7/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Shohei Ohtani, Ceddanne Rafaela, and others!
Welcome back, Rotoballers! For the first Friday in August, Major League Baseball provides us with a full slate of all 30 teams in action as we go hunting for some strong home run props. The matchups include only a couple of divisional matchups along with six interleague matchups. A few of the games have the potential for rain in the forecast, so be careful in New York, Chicago and Pittsburgh. Sutter Health Park and Coors Field aren't on the slate, but there are still plenty of options to consider for home run props based on matchup, current form, and environments.
Don’t forget that no matter how juicy things look, home runs are hard to hit, which is why the payoffs are so nice. Don’t overdo it just because the data looks friendly. Make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, August 7, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/7/2026)
Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+335, Kalshi)
Ohtani and the Dodgers are visiting the Diamondbacks on Friday night to start a series with their division rivals. They still have an 8 1/2-game lead over Arizona in the division even though they have dropped six straight. They'll be in a good spot to get back on track, though, with Merrill Kelly on the mound for the Diamondbacks.
While he's still not pitching, Ohtani's offense continues to impress. The 32-year-old lefty is up to 26 homers on the season to go with a .297 batting average, .399 wOBA, and 52.5% hard-hit rate. While his numbers are slightly down from last season overall, he has hit .484 (15-for-31) in his last eight games with four homers and a 20.8% barrel rate.
He went yard twice on Wednesday in his most recent game.
Shohei Ohtani leaves the yard AGAIN!
It’s a one-run game at Wrigley 👀 pic.twitter.com/uOurME8D3Y
— MLB (@MLB) August 5, 2026
Ohtani is in a good matchup against Kelly, whom he has gone 2-for-5 with a double and a homer against in their past meetings. Kelly has been very hittable this season, especially at home, where he has a 6.33 ERA and has allowed 12 homers in eight starts. Lefties have a .248 ISO, 47.1% hard-hit rate, and 13.8% barrel rate against him this year. He has surrendered 23 homers in his 20 starts overall, and lefties like Shohei have hit 15 of those long balls.
The Dodgers will look to get back on track Friday night, and Ohtani will be in a good spot to help them get things turned around with a home run. Getting odds over +300 for an in-form Ohtani seems like excellent value.
Ceddanne Rafaela OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600, FanDuel)
The Red Sox continue to be red hot after sweeping the White Sox to start the week and improve to 32-5 over their last 37 games. They'll host the Athletics this weekend, as they try to continue their surge in the standings. One of the key contributors throughout their current run has been Ceddanne Rafaela, who has shown huge improvement at the plate this season.
Rafaela still doesn't have the most eye-popping exit velocity metrics, but he has hit 15 homers this season and will match his career-high with his next long ball. His batting average is up from .249 last year to .287 this year, with his wOBA jumping from .307 to .349.
Rafaela has become the team's regular second hitter in the order and has hit seven homers in his last 15 games. He didn't homer in the series against the White Sox but hit three homers in three games against the Dodgers last weekend.
Ceddanne Rafaela is the King of LA
Season Stats:
15 HR
57 RBI
15 SB
.289 AVG | .328 OBP | .805 OPS
OAA: +13Pace: 22 HR / 84 RBI / 22 SB#DirtyWater pic.twitter.com/cNV3icRmOo
— PaceBall (@paceball__) August 3, 2026
Rafaela has good splits against righties, and he is in a favorable matchup against Jack Perkins and the A's on Friday night. Perkins has allowed 14 homers this season while working 72 2/3 innings out of the bullpen and the rotation. He has started nine of his last 10 appearances and has given up 13 homers during that stretch, including three in his last start, which was against the Tigers in Detroit.
While Rafaela is a longshot value at +600, he has been hot enough and productive enough at home to be a strong option as the Red Sox look to keep rolling.
