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Doug's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/4/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Kyle Schwarber, Max Muncy, and others!
Happy Day After Trade Deadline Day, RotoBaller Posse! Write an article about home run bets today, they say? Oh yeah, who the heck is playing? I kid, of course, but this is going to be a wild day with players on new teams, role players being thrust into starting slots, and pitchers facing batters they’ve never seen before.
That all makes for a day where uncertainty rules, and we don’t like that in the betting world. How do we remedy that? We play smart and don’t take any unnecessary chances. Generally, I like to swing big with my picks, but tonight I’m sticking to comfortable, reliable bats. The odds may not be long, but I’d rather put myself in a position to win a small wager rather than get weird and lose big.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/4/2026)
Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+180, Bet365)
In the intro, I referenced safe, reliable bats, and it doesn’t get much more comfortable than the NL home run leader, Kyle Schwarber. Schwarbs has pummeled right-handed pitching all year, posting a .508 SLG and a .288 ISO, with a team-leading 44% Hard%. Nearly 70% of his homers have come against righties, and 20 of his 33 have been hit at home.
Tonight he’s facing Zack Littell, who has allowed 25 home runs so far this season, three of which have come in two starts against the Phillies. Littell has been far worse on the road, allowing a putrid 2.4 HR/9. He’s made eight road starts this year, and has given up multiple home runs in half of those. Littell’s biggest struggles have come against lefties, against whom he’s surrendering a slate-high .552 SLG and 42.2% Hard%.
This is a great environment for home runs, as Citizens Bank Ballpark has been the fourth-most homer-friendly via Park Factor over the past three years. Along with an individual bet on Schwarber to go yard, I’ll be parlaying him with Bryce Harper and Luiz Arrez for total bases and RBI’s.
Max Muncy OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+375, Bet365)
Max Muncy isn’t hitting the ball particularly well lately, recording just a .189 AVG over his past 10 games, but even when he’s playing poorly, he still has incredible power. Over those 10 games, Muncy has seven total hits, but three of them are home runs.
He’s always a threat against right-handed pitching, posting a .492 SLG and a .238 ISO with a team-leading 16 home runs. He’s only had one at-bat in his career against tonight’s opposing pitcher, Javier Assad, but it ended in a home run, which gives me the warm and fuzzies for this bet.
With his next home run, Max Muncy will become the all time leader in home runs at Dodger Stadium
Season Stats:
21 HR
49 RBI
.256 AVG | .352 OBP | .858 OPSPace: 33 HR / 77 RBI#Dodgers pic.twitter.com/MbjT8Ugwa0
— PaceBall (@paceball__) July 29, 2026
Assad has been especially bad against lefties this year, allowing a .489 SLG and 42.5% Hard%. On a slate littered with gas cans, only two pitchers have allowed harder contact to left-handed bats. Weirdly, Assad has allowed home runs in only four of his past eight starts, but in each of those he’s allowed multiple longballs.
Two of those games were on the road, and unless you’re really high on the Mets and Rockies offenses, none were against teams with the power profile of LA. Given Assad’s penchant for allowing multiple dongs, I’ll sprinkle a parlay on Muncy and Shohei Ohtani to both go yard to offset the short odds for a singular home run.
