Andy Smith's Second Half Bold Predictions for Fantasy Baseball (2026)

July 24, 2026

Andy's second-half fantasy baseball bold predictions for 2026. Some of his bold predictions include players like Jackson Merrill, Joey Cantillo, Mason Montgomery, and more.

Welcome, RotoBallers, to another round of fantasy baseball Bold Predictions. With the second half of the campaign in full swing, let's take a look ahead at the coming months and predict which players will surprise us.

While these predictions are bold, they are not without reason. Below, we will use some advanced analytics to explain why these outcomes could occur by the end of the campaign.

Be sure to follow RotoBaller MLB on X for all of our league-winning content and me, @A_Smith_FS, for any questions. Additionally, be sure to use discount code SMITH for 50% off any Premium Packages and gain access to our Team Sync platform with customized lineup tools, projections, and more based on your league settings. Let's dive in! All advanced statistics referenced are updates as of Wednesday, July 22.

Jackson Merrill Regains Rookie Form

Jackson Merrill was a league winner during his rookie campaign. In 2024, Merrill posted an elite .292/.326/.500 slash line with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases over his first 156 contests in the major leagues. However, Merrill was even more dominant in the second half of his rookie season.

During this noted stretch, the former top prospect posted a dominant .314/.349/.596 line with a sharp .945 OPS.

Merrill's fantasy value was at an all-time high heading into the 2025 season. However, the outfielder was unable to live up to the lofty expectations, as he not only battled injuries but also struggled at the plate. Across 115 games, Merrill hit 16 home runs with a modest .264/.317/.457 line with just one stolen base.

As a result, managers received a nice discount on the 23-year-old ahead of the 2026 campaign. Unfortunately, Merrill has been unable to return to his 2024 form as he endured a slow start to the 2026 season.

Through the first half, Merrill held a .219/.278/.350 line, which is on pace to be the worst of his career. While he did hit 10 home runs and chip in 19 stolen bases, his inconsistencies made him difficult to trust in standard formats.

However, despite the underwhelming metrics, Merrill is a player to buy heading into the final stretch. So far after the All-Star break, Merrill is holding a .261/.292/.652 line with three long balls and a swiped bag (over just five games). While the sample is small, his underlying marks suggest he could enjoy a similar late-season 2024 surge once again.

While Merrill has nudged some surge against offspeed pitches, he is showing great progress against fastballs and offspeed pitches, especially in terms of xSLG (power output).

If he can maintain this pace against both pitch types (which he sees 82.2% of the time), Merrill will continue to enjoy a power surge.

Another aspect to like is his swing decision at the plate. Early in the campaign, Merrill held a 20.0%+ K%, which was the highest of his career by a wide margin. However, as shown below, the outfielder has continued to improve his swing-and-miss percentage, which is a great sign for his rest-of-season outlook.

However, potentially the driving force for a second-half surge will be his optimized swing. So far in 2026, Merrill has generated an above-average 18.8% Pull AIR%, which is on pace to be the best of his career. Given his underlying xSLG and lower strikeout and miss rates, Merrill could continue to see his home run totals climb.

His .245 xBA and .424 xSLG already suggest positive regression is coming. But pairing it with a 74th percentile hard-hit rate and strong underlying marks (89th percentile sprint speed), Merrill could be a high-end five-category asset down the stretch and re-emerge as a fantasy star. Don't be surprised if Merrill is a top-10 outfielder for the remainder of the season.

Alec Burleson Ends Season with 30+ HRs, Tallies 120+ RBI

Alec Burleson has already been a pleasant surprise during the first half. Through 99 games, the corner infielder/outfielder has held a .282/.343/.466 slash line with 23 doubles (eighth in the National League), 15 home runs, and an impressive 69 RBI, which currently sits as the fourth most in the National League.

However, there is a path for Burleson to be a legit superstar down the stretch. Currently, he is in a place to hit 25 long balls, which would make it the second time in his career he hits the 20-HR mark. However, I predict that he will eclipse the 30-HR mark and do so while holding a .290+ AVG and adding nearly 120 RBI.

The 27-year-old currently boasts some of the most impressive underlying metrics in the sport. Per Statcast, Burleson has generated an elite .384 xwOBA (95th percentile), .298 xBA (98th percentile), and a .539 xSLG (also in the 98th percentile). These marks are much higher than his current .282 BA and .466 SLG, suggesting there is further room for Burleson to improve.

His 11.3% barrel rate also marks a career-best (72nd percentile), and his 48.1% hard-hit rate (85th percentile) is also the highest of his career (among seasons in which he appeared in more than 20 games).

Even with these underlying marks, there is still more in Burleson's profile that managers will love. His current 73.3 mph average bat speed is not only well above the average marks, but is also on pace to be the best of his career. Additionally, Burleson has generated a 19.4% Pull AIR%, which is not only above average but also the best of his career.

The 27-year-old has a path to be a true difference-maker in the second half. Managers should look to "buy low" on the potential breakout amid his somewhat modest .256/.301/.372 line over his last 22 games as he is expected to turn the corner prominently very soon.

Garrett Mitchell is the Second-Half "League Winner," Goes 20/20

The final hitter we will spotlight here is a budding star in Garrett Mitchell. If you have read my wire-to-wire columns, I have been banging on the Mitchell drum for the past month as he is primed for a breakout.

Currently, Mitchell has turned in a strong .280 AVG with 22 doubles, eight home runs, and seven stolen bases, which puts him on pace for a 14/13 finish. However, the former top prospect has shown steady signs of growth and could very well finish the campaign as a 20/20 hitter.

After dealing with injuries over the start of his MLB career, Mitchell has finally begun to carve out a lead role in this offense. Under the hood, Mitchell has generated a solid .354 xwOBA, .264 xBA, and .461 xSLG with 89th percentile hard-hit rates and barrel rates. The 27-year-old has also generated an elite 77.4 mph average bat speed, putting him within the elite tier of sluggers.

However, this power output has yet to fully show in the major leagues, as his HR count is still relatively low (in relation to the underlying marks). Much of this is due to his lower Pull AIR% (10.9%). While growing pains are inevitable, especially for a young hitter, Mitchell has begun to show progress in his ability to pull the ball.

As shown below, the outfielder generated low Pull% in the opening two months but showed steady progression in June before taking a step back in July. However, seeing Mitchell progress in the first half, the path is there for him to return to this level of play down the stretch.

With a 98th-percentile sprint speed and elite hard-hit rates, Mitchell will not only enter fantasy stardom in the second half, but join the 20/20 club. He is well on his way to a dominant conclusion, carrying a .386/.427/.614 line over his last 19 contests.

Joey Cantillo Finishes Within the Top-5 Strikeout Total

Joey Cantillo turned in a strong second half of the 2025 campaign, where he logged his final 54 1/3 innings to the tune of a 2.48 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, which makes him an intriguing late-round pick in 2026 drafts.

However, the young southpaw was a bit inconsistent to begin the 2026 campaign, where he posted a modest 3.92 ERA with a rough 1.45 WHIP. During this stretch, the 26-year-old totaled just 56 punchouts while walking a high 4.9 hitters per nine innings.

Despite this, since June 7 (his last 44 frames), Cantillo has looked like a completely different pitcher. During this noted stretch, Cantillo has struck out an impressive 56 hitters while improving his walk rate (3.7 BB/9 hitters per nine innings).

When looking at his underlying metrics, Cantillo not only has a path to maintain this production, but also to finish within the top five in total strikeouts among all pitchers down the stretch.

The main reason for his rise in strikeouts is the further development of his curveball. When looking at the visual below, managers can quickly spot that his curveball (shown in blue) was his No. 3 pitch early in the season, but has since become his primary offering in each of the last two months.

In June, this pitch generated an elite .198 xwOBA with a 40.7% whiff rate. So far in July, it has been even more dominant with a 46.9% whiff rate and a similar .241 xwOBA. This pitch is elite and is on the path to becoming one of the most dominant breaking balls in the game.

Additionally, his No. 2 offering, his changeup, has generated a 53.2% whiff rate in July and holds a 41.8% whiff rate on the season.

Over his last six outings, Cantillo has hit the nine-punchout mark in three of them. The southpaw has the path to becoming one of the most dominant strikeout arms for the remainder of the season.

Mason Montgomery Becomes Waiver Wire Hero for Saves

Rounding out our column will be a bold prediction for a reliever. While it may seem a bit outlandish to predict a reliever that is available in more than 90% of Yahoo leagues to be the second-half hero for saves, there is surely a clear path for him to take the crown.

The Pirates have a wide-open bullpen and have recently been linked to many of the relievers on the trade market, including Luke Weaver, especially if they want to contend. However, with the Pirates front office not looking to expand their payroll in hopes of securing championships, there is a strong possibility they only make minor improvements, which would leave Mason Montgomery as the best option.

Montgomery has been used as a primary high-leverage option and has occasionally been given the nod as an opener. Across 39 frames, the southpaw has held a 3.92 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. However, he has struck out an elite 35.2% of the hitters he has seen (98th percentile) while holding a strong 3.10 xERA and a .200 xBA.

While his elite strikeout rate and impressive underlying marks may be enough for him to claim the ninth inning in Pittsburgh, the team's current high-leverage picture makes it even easier. Dennis Santana was the incumbent closer to open the season but has struggled to the tune of a 6.05 ERA with only two saves.

This allowed Gregory Soto to emerge as an early season waiver hero, but he has since begun to lose favor with the coaching staff. Over his last 12 1/3 innings, Soto has blown three saves (while tallying four) with a rough 8.76 ERA.

If the Pirates do not bolster their bullpen at the deadline and the team remains in the Wild Card hunt, Montgomery will claim this closer job. His elite strikeout upside and underlying arm strength can make him a league winner among relievers.

Those needing saves should not wait much longer to acquire the 26-year-old. The path to double-digit saves is quite clear.

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