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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/16/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Jordan Walker, Munetaka Murakami and others!
Welcome to Saturday, RotoBallers! We're staring at another full slate and plenty of opportunity for hitters to go deep and cash us some bets. Coors Field and Sutter Health Park are both in play today and we'll focus on a hitter that's playing in Sacramento. The rest of the slate has a lot of tricky matchups but we've hopefully found some solid spots.
In this article, I'll focus on four home run spots I like. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, which could include more home run spots as well as some great strikeout picks and NRFIs!
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, May 16, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/16/2026)
Jordan Walker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450, theScore Bet)
He came through for me a couple weeks ago and I'm going back to the well. Walker finds himself in an advantageous matchup against the Royals' Noah Cameron. Generally one of the risks with betting Walker this season is that he doesn't always elevate the ball. But that's starting to change and it gets even better against lefties.
JORDAN WALKER FOR THE LEAD!
105.4 mph
381 feetThat ball was an inch off the plate and he muscled it for an oppo taco. Wow.#stlcards #cardinals #stlcardinals pic.twitter.com/YOL5O5qYqW
— Redbird Rundown Podcast (@redbirdrundown2) May 14, 2026
On the season he has a 45.9% fly-ball rate, but that jumps to 52.0% when he's facing lefties. The hard hit rate against southpaws is at 56.0%, so we know that he's going to crush the ball. That's reflected with a 180 wRC+ against lefties. We're getting a massively productive hitter here in this situation.
As for Cameron, he's giving up tons of homers and tons of line drives. That's adding up to a 13.6% barrel rate that ranks in the 6th percentile. He's actually fared worse against lefties when it comes to the long ball, but righties have still done damage.
Cameron attacks righties with a mix of four-seamers, changeups, cutters and curves. All of those besides the curveball have an average launch angle against of 16 degrees or higher. Walker has done considerable damage against all four of these pitches. If he gets a four-seamer then it should go a long aways.
We also have some prior history here that works in our favor. Cameron faced the Cardinals early last season and Walker took him deep. Will that matter today? Probably not, but the slight bit of familiarity couldn't hurt.
We're not getting the same odds as we did when he took Roki Sasaki deep a couple weeks ago but this is a play I'm betting regardless of the price. Let's hope Walker keeps hitting the ball hard and in the air and goes deep for the third straight game.
Munetaka Murakami OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320, FanDuel)
The hype seems to have died down around Murakami lately but that's not going to stop me from taking him to go yard against Jameson Taillon of the Cubs. The matchup is juicy and Murakami is hitting the ball hard when he's getting the bat on the ball.
MUNETAKA MURAKAMI!
He ties Aaron Judge for the MLB home run lead with No. 14! 😤 pic.twitter.com/2flNFsZgbT
— MLB (@MLB) May 5, 2026
Over the last two weeks Murakami has posted a 26.1% barrel rate and a 65.2% hard-hit rate. That's added up to just three homers, but that's mostly because of more than 50% of Murakami's PAs resulting in strikeouts or walks. That should be less of a worry against Taillon as he's started to gain a little more control in the zone over his last few starts.
The other key note about Taillon is he's given up two homers in two of his last three starts. He's liable to get lit up in the right scenario. Facing lefties certainly qualify. Each of the four main pitches he features against lefties has an xwOBA of .358 or high with four-seamers, changeups and cutters all having an average launch angle of 20 degrees or higher.
That's great news for Murakami, who's starting to make the turn with his stats at home. He's been awesome against four-seamers, changeups and cutters this year. Given that's what Taillon is going to focus on it makes for an excellent matchup for the Japanese star. If Taillon decides to pivot to either a curveball or sinker, Murakami has also been very productive against those two pitches.
To no surprise, Murakami's destroying the ball if he makes contact. And since Taillon isn't known for his ability to miss bats, I feel confident that Murakami will put a few in play and we'll get a decent result out of it.
