Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Hitters Delivering Elite Results For Week 7

May 12, 2026

Kevin analyzes hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts surging for Week 7 of 2026. Are they true breakouts, or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.

It's Tuesday so you know I've got you another edition of Fantasy Baseball Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs. May is when we really start to see who's really real in the baseball world and whether that hot start is going to be sustained over multiple months. We'll do our best using advanced stats to help project whose current hot streak is real and who's going to be due for some negative regression.

This season we've told you the hot streak from Jordan Walker was for real and his 173 OPS+ has been paying off well for fantasy managers. We also told you Jeremiah Jackson's breakout was fool's gold and he's hit for just a .465 OPS since then. Identifying if positive and negative regression are coming is key to being able to maintain a solid fantasy roster that's going to have you competing all season.

So let's dive into another group of hitters that are breaking out. This week, we'll evaluate a quartet of young hitters - Liam Hicks, JJ Bleday, Zack Gelof and Ezequiel Duran. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Monday, May 11th.

Liam Hicks, C/DH, Miami Marlins

2026 Stats: .928 OPS, 160 OPS+, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 20 R, 1 SB

The Miami Marlins certainly have quite a bit of intrigue at the top of their lineup. Hicks is another example of both the power and average that Miami's been looking for. And as of late he's been crushing it.

In his last 14 games Hicks has posted a 1.014 OPS to go along with five homers. Fantasy managers have taken notice and he's being added to rosters at a high rate. So are we seeing a breakout or a fake out in Miami? Let's dig in.

Liam Hicks with his eighth home run of the season

Exit velo: 107.5 mph
Distance: 431 feet

Longest home run hit this season for Hicks

First four-hit game of the season for Hicks, second of his career.#Marlins pic.twitter.com/O3c2JbNT57

— Kevin Barral (@kevin_barral) May 6, 2026

Hicks' plate approach clearly shows that he prioritizes balls in play. His strikeout rate has dropped to a minimal 8.7% this year after coming in at 14.4% last year. His walk rate, though, has dropped to 8.0% from 11.0% last season. We'd love to see the walk rate above double digits again, but he has always posted a walk rate of 10% or better throughout every stop in the minors. It should hopefully creep back up soon.

His batted ball profile shows us that he's certainly aiming to get the ball in the air more. Last year he posted a 33.8% fly-ball rate and it's up to 39.3% in 2026. The ground-ball rate is also coming in at 39.3%, down about 3%. The line drive rate has also decreased, but at a 21.4% rate that's still plenty fine.

The major increase that we're seeing is his HR/FB rate. It's up to 20.5% from last year's 6.4%. While it does show that he's seeing the ball better this year, there may be some regression coming as he hasn't posting a HR/FB rate higher than 8.3% at any level. Is he just that much better now or is he over-achieving?

His BABIP of .272 doesn't exactly help us answer that question, but it does tell us that he may be getting unlucky on some of his batted balls that don't leave the yard. He was at .278 last season but was at .289 throughout the minors in 2024. Maybe a touch of positive regression should happen here.

Now to the Baseball Savant page. Here we can see that his .397 wOBA is paired with a .368 xwOBA. That negative regression that's being influenced is thanks to a hard-hit rate in the 44th percentile while his barrel rate is in the 39th percentile. So maybe the power numbers he's reaching now might be him over-achieving.

At the same time, his .302 xBA ranks in the 95th percentile. That's likely influenced by his 37.5% squared up percentage which ranks in the 97th percentile. Batting average isn't the telling stat that it used to be perceived as but, from a fantasy perspective, this tells us he's at least going to still get hits. And with a high percentage of balls in play that's never a bad thing.

Liam Hicks rips a 3-run homer off Yamamoto for the lead! pic.twitter.com/Jr0prWryON

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 28, 2026

For the pitch mix he's seeing, there's really only one pitch that he's struggled against. That would be four-seamers, which he sees 25.5% of the time and is hitting for a .250 wOBA. But that's got a lot of positive regression behind it as he's got a .379 xwOBA paired with it. We love to see that much positive regression on the pitch he sees the most.

For the rest of his pitch mix it's clear he's been really solid against offspeed pitches. Changeups, curves and sliders have all been destroyed when he gets to them. But we do see some negative regression expected on these. However, the lowest xwOBA he has on these three pitches is .316 with sliders. Both changeups and curves have an xwOBA of .430 or higher. For the most part, the floor is high.

One pitch that he may start to see more of is sweepers. Pitchers haven't prioritized them against Hicks, but his .350 wOBA against sweepers is paired with a .281 xwOBA. With the sweepers continually gaining popularity, I wouldn't be surprised to see pitchers pivot to this pitch more.

Verdict: Hicks continues to excel in a tough hitting environment in Miami. However, I do question whether or not the power numbers are going to continue at the rate they have been so far. I would love to see the hard-hit rate and barrel rate be higher, but based off his history throughout the minors we may just be seeing him at his peak.

But at the end of the day, you're going to take an xwOBA that ranks in the 81st percentile any day of the week. Additionally, with Edwards and Lopez continually on base in front of him he's going to have plenty of RBI chances. With 35 ribbies he's tied for third in the league. That's additional value that makes him a buy. The power numbers are going to fall off soon, but you'll still be able to capitalize off hits and RBI chances.

JJ Bleday, OF, Cincinnati Reds

2026 Stats: 1.035 OPS, 182 OPS+, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 7 R, 1 SB

It's been a bouncy start to Bleday's career in the majors. Cincinnati marks his third stop in just five seasons in the majors. He's bounced around between the minors and majors with each of his three franchises but he's starting to look like a real solid addition to a struggling Reds lineup.

With four homers in just 42 at-bats it looks like he should be a clear add in any type of league. But as always, we need to determine if he's a breakout or a fake out. So let's dig in and see what we can find.

CIN - JJ Bleday Solo HR (3)

📏 394 ft | 💨 112.6 mph | 📐 23°
⚾️ 84.3 mph curveball (CHC - RHP Edward Cabrera)
🏟️ Out in 30/30 parks 💣

CIN (1) @ CHC (0)
🔺 3rd#ATOBTTR pic.twitter.com/OPKZ6sSQvy

— MLB Home Runs (@MLBHRs_) May 5, 2026

The first thing to notice is a massive improvement in his walk rate. Right now it's sitting at 17.6% compared to last season's 10.5%. That certainly may be a much higher rate than he'll finish with, but he also posted a 17.3% walk rate with Triple-A Louisville. That was over a span of 104 PAs, so there's at least some hope that his walk rate could stay above his career norms.

The strikeout rate is also down from 26.5% to 13.7%. There's certainly some overachieving here given his career strikeout rate is 22.9%. We're seeing his whiff rate decrease, so the number should be lower, but it would be ambitious to assume he'll keep this up all season.

As for the batted ball profile, he's clearly prioritizing getting the ball in the air and that's a very good thing. His fly-ball rate is up to 54.3% after being at 47.0% with the A's last season. The ground-ball rate is also down, sitting at 20.0% after being at 37.3%.

With such a small sample size in the majors I think his rates in the minors need to be considered to see whether it's legit or not. The fly-ball rate in Triple-A Louisville was at 45.0%, so we should expect that he starts hitting fewer flyballs soon.

But the ground-ball rate? There's a very concerted effort he's made with his approach to keep that ball off the ground. The ground-ball rate in Triple-A this year was at 16.7%. That helps to validate his current 20.0% number. And while it still may be ambitious to assume he stays at 20.0% the entire season, it certainly shows us that the number will stay low and that's usually a good thing.

His BABIP with Cincinnati is right at .226 so far. That certainly indicates positive regression, but he also was generally a sub-.300 BABIP guy with the A's. Last season it was at .251 with .279 being his number the season before. I think there's some positive regression coming here, but it shouldn't be a huge jump like we might expect.

Jumping to his Baseball Savant page as you can tell there's a lot of red, it's just got a bunch of lines through it since he's not a qualified hitter yet. But from what you can see you can tell that his hot start is certainly backed by the advanced metrics. His .435 wOBA is paired with a .481 xwOBA. If he was a qualified hitter that would rank him second in the league after Yordan Alvarez.

3-0 swingin' 🚦@BledayJay pic.twitter.com/4WlhnAga92

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) May 10, 2026

But we can't get too far ahead of ourselves quite yet. That small sample size needs to be considered before we crown Bleday as a fantasy MVP.

His hard-hit rate of 57.1% and barrel rate of 17.1% are both well above his career norms. He's generally at 8.2% for his barrel rate and 36.9% for his hard-hit rate. Even though xwOBA is predicting positive regression, we need to consider his career norms.

As for the pitch mix, we need to see if pitchers have changed how they've traditionally attacked him. This year he's seeing changeups at a 23.9% rate. That would make sense for pitchers to prioritize as he hit them for just a .106 wOBA (.160 xwOBA) last season. It's still not a great pitch for him, but that's up to a .270 wOBA and a .285 xwOBA. Low floor, but not as low as it was in the past.

The big area where positive regression is likely is with four-seam fastballs. He's hitting them for a .505 wOBA to go along with a .732 xwOBA. That's obviously not going to stay that high through the season, but last season he hit them for a .395 wOBA (.325 xwOBA). I would think it's fair to expect a wOBA between .350 and .375 for four-seamers, which is generally good production.

Verdict: Bleday makes for a compelling case because the small sample size since getting called up is so incredibly productive. It's hard to buy too much into it, but how can you not?

The 28-year-old is certainly a buy. As I like to say here, ride that hot streak! At the very least, you'll be capitalizing early. If the rest of the Reds' lineup decides to get going then he should be able to get more RBI chances too. But at least in the main time he should stay producing, especially thanks to him keeping the ball off the ground.

When all is settled and done I would expect that Bleday ends with an OPS+ somewhere around 130-135. The hitting environment at Great American Ball Park will be a positive for him. And in a contract year he's going to need to keep producing to cash in on a solid contract this coming offseason.

Zack Gelof, 2B, Athletics

2026 Stats: .812 OPS, 118 OPS+, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 12 R, 2 SB

It was a rough 2025 for Gelof thanks to multiple injuries that limited him to just 30 games of action. Those lingered into Spring Training this year and he started the year in Triple-A Las Vegas. That may have been a great move because his production since then has been solid.

He slashed .366/.519/.732 in Triple-A and that high level of production has carried into the majors. He's looking nothing like he did in 2025 when he hit for just a 35 OPS+. So are we looking at a breakout or a fake out? Let's take a look.

PB & GELLY TIME pic.twitter.com/xYQmhZo549

— Athletics (@Athletics) May 8, 2026

Starting with his plate approach, we're seeing a solid improvement in his strikeout rate although it's still not exactly pretty. He's clocking in with a 26.1% strikeout rate, which is actually the lowest mark he's posted in the majors. In his short time in 2025 it was up to 45.5% and in his only full season in 2024 he was up to 34.4%.

A lower whiff rate is certainly a factor here and that's great to see. A high strikeout rate only does good if you're also hitting for a ton of power so Gelof's improvements to lower that rate help him out.

The walk rate is still about the same, coming in at 7.2%. With him being at 6.9% both of the past two seasons, we're essentially looking at a hitter with the same eye but a better contact rate.

Gelof's batted ball profile ends up coming in looking very, very similar to his 2024 profile. That's based off a 41.9% ground-ball rate, 37.2% fly-ball rate and a 20.9% line drive rate. That season he ended with an 82 OPS+, so this year's 113 OPS+ is a much better result.

Go offff Gelof 👏 pic.twitter.com/YSJMg6M1DA

— Athletics (@Athletics) April 25, 2026

Looking at his BABIP we can see why he's starting to see such better results. He's posting a .341 BABIP this season compared to .311 in 2025 and .296 in 2024. He's generally been around .312 in his career, so something above .300 should be expected but at .341 it does indicate a bit of luck. Unless he's hitting it hard, which we'll get to in a minute here.

As we check in on his Baseball Savant page we can start to assume that maybe he's not hitting the ball as hard as the raw stats would indicate. He's hitting for a .356 wOBA that's paired with a .300 xwOBA. So we can tell there's some luck happening somewhere.

The hard-hit rate comes in at 41.3%. While he's not a qualified hitter, that comes in right at league average. So that's not an issue. But the barrel rate at 6.5% would be in the would be in the 36th percentile. Not bad, but also not great.

As we look at his pitch mix we can really only make assumptions on two pitches due to the small sample size: Four-seamers and sinkers. Those make up 58.4% of the pitches he sees.

Four-seamers are a weakness of his as he's hitting them for just a .266 wOBA to go along with a .248 xwOBA. They were a weakness for him last year as well so we can assume he'll be a subpar four-seam hitter.

As for sinkers, he's gotten much better results against them with a .400 wOBA. But that's also paired with a .325 xwOBA, so much of the negative regression we're expecting will come here. At the same time, though, a floor of .325 is still a very serviceable floor.

The rest of the pitch mix he sees he's done fairly well against outside of curves. But there's simply not enough data here, or within last season's numbers, to make any real declarations of change.

Verdict: Gelof is clearly benefitting from both a decreased strikeout rate and a bit of luck on balls in play. With a profile so close to what he did in 2024 it certainly feels like a 113 OPS+ is overachieving. He's made the adjustments to be better than his 2024 OPS+ of 82, but I'm not certain that he'll be above league average when all is said and done.

Gelof is someone who's due for negative regression and likely quickly. He's only owned in 10% of rosters in Yahoo! leagues so he's likely not someone you've picked up, but if he's someone you're debating on adding to your roster then know that the hot streak won't be lasting long.

Ezequiel Duran, SS, Texas Rangers

2026 Stats: .810 OPS, 140 OPS+, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 13 R, 4 SB

The Rangers are making a real run at the AL West this season. And while they're certainly known for their pitching, they've got some hitters that are flying a bit under the radar. We highlighted Josh Jung last week and now it's Ezequiel Duran's turn.

Duran has been one of the Rangers' best hitters over the last couple weeks, hitting for a .939 OPS since April 27th. That certain looks like he's breaking out, but could he be a fake out? Let's dig in.

Zeke on a heater 🔥 #AllForTX pic.twitter.com/Xne1jCvo37

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) May 7, 2026

To start, we're seeing major improvements in his plate approach. Duran had a 25.1% strikeout rate and a 3.7% walk rate last season. Those have improved to a tune of a 20.2% strikeout rate and a 10.6% walk rate.

That's a massive improvement on the walk rate and you know I love to see it. A decrease in his swing rate (52.7% to 45.6%) is certainly helping him in both departments. If nothing else then this type of approach can help stabilize a batter when he's struggling to get hits.

The batted ball profile starts to raise some real questions, though. His ground-ball rate has jumped from 39.0% to 47.1% while his fly-ball rate has dropped from 40.4% to 34.3%. The line drive rate is down a touch too, but I'm more concerned about the other changes here.

We highlighted with Bleday the concerted efforts he's making to keep the ball off the ground while Duran, on the other hand, isn't getting the ball in the air enough for my liking. If the ball isn't screaming off his bat then he's likely going to start getting worse results.

Additionally, his 8.3% HR/FB rate isn't exactly inspiring. The good news is it's a real solid improvement over his last two seasons, but it's only added up to two homers on the season.

As we check on BABIP, that's coming in at a .348 clip this season. His career mark is around .325, so we can expect a number higher than .300 so this would indicate that he likely has some negative regression coming.

Now let's see what his Baseball Savant page has to say about things. His .359 wOBA is paired with a .338 xwOBA, so negative regression is headed for him although it's not an incredibly far drop. The xwOBA is in the 64th percentile, likely driven by his .273 xBA that's in the 76th percentile.

A key thing with Duran's profile is to ensure he's hitting the ball hard to help balance out that high ground-ball rate. And so far he's doing well at that. His 45.8% hard-hit rate sits in the 72nd percentile. So we can at least check that off the list.

Ezequiel Duran ties it in the 9th for the @Rangers! pic.twitter.com/mxiGSnjmyw

— MLB (@MLB) April 11, 2026

The barrel percentage is where things could really improve for him, though, as it's just in the 38th percentile. Since he's hitting the ball hard already, he just needs to lift it in the air. This is where the 47.1% ground-ball rate is really hurting him. Similar to our analysis of Jung last week, he just needs to get it in the air more!

As we look at the pitch mix Duran faces, most of the results are fairly true. The only real exceptions are sinkers (.569 wOBA, .441 xwOBA) and sliders (.427 wOBA, .280 xwOBA). That's not great for sliders but the floor for sinkers tells us he's going to be a very solid hitter against them.

The main pitch that's somewhat of a weakness for him is four-seamers. They're the pitch he sees the most and he hits them for just a .298 wOBA (.297 xwOBA). With this being his top pitch, any improvement would be great to help boost his value.

Verdict: Duran could provide significantly more value if he could just get the ball in the air more often. The hard-hit rate is solid and he's clearly benefitting from it. But the ground-ball rate is too high for me to fully consider him a buy at this point.

At the same time, there are significantly worse places that you could turn if you're looking for offensive help. The Rangers also have a very soft pitching schedule coming up with the DBacks, Astros and Rockies all on deck. He's worth an add for these three series, but don't count on the same level of production happening after unless he finds a way to get the ball in the air a lot more often.

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