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Expert Week 16 Thursday Night Football bets, anytime TD scorer, and player prop predictions. Free TNF betting picks, anytime TD scorer, and player props for Week 16.
Thursday Night Football heads to Seattle, Wash., this week for a marquee NFC West battle between the 11-3 Seattle Seahawks and the 11-3 Los Angeles Rams. This matchup has a similar feel to last season's dramatic Week 18 clash between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions, when two 14-2 teams squared off to decide the top seed in the NFC.
Seattle narrowly escaped with a win last week over the Philip Rivers-led Colts, while the Rams rolled past the Lions and continue to look like the most dominant team in the NFL. This historic Thursday night matchup marks the first time two teams with at least 11 wins will face off on Thursday Night Football.
Can the Seahawks avenge their Week 11 loss, or will the Rams complete the season sweep? Let's get to the picks!
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Welcome to The Emerald City 🌃 #TNFonPrime pic.twitter.com/0QjnpXQhz0
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 17, 2025
Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks (-112 Novig)
Over/Under (43.5)
The Rams knocked off the Seahawks, 21-19, back in their Week 11 matchup. It was easily the worst game of the season for Matthew Stafford, and one of his worst games since joining the Rams in 2021. On the other hand, we saw a classic Sam Darnold meltdown, with four interceptions, one of just three instances this season where a quarterback threw four picks.
Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Davante Adams (knee, hamstring) has missed back-to-back practices and is a long shot to play on a short week, and Seahawks left tackle Charles Cross (hamstring) is also dealing with a hamstring injury and hasn't practiced yet this week. Rams DE Braden Fiske (ankle) is another key player to monitor heading into Thursday.
Seahawks vs Rams Tuesday injury report. Like yesterday, this is an estimation of participation. pic.twitter.com/W2lD5a1Yz3
— John Boyle (@johnpboyle) December 17, 2025
Sean McVay has been the king of December football in recent years. Since Stafford came to town in 2021, the Rams own a dominant 17-3 record straight up and against the spread, per KillerSports.com. McVay has also won four of the last five meetings with Seattle.
2025 Betting Trends:
- Against the Spread: SEA 10-4, LAR 10-4
- As Home Team ATS: SEA 4-3
- As Away Team ATS: LAR 4-2
- Over Game Total: SEA 8-6, LAR 7-7
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
Darnold's sensational start to his Seattle tenure has fizzled out over the second half of the season. Since Week 9, Darnold is tied with Daniel Jones for the most turnovers in the league (12). While his passing efficiency has remained strong (8.5 Y/A), it's come on low volume.
The former third overall pick in 2018's woes against the Rams are well-documented. His lone career playoff game was a nightmare, taking nine sacks for a loss of 82 yards and committing two turnovers. Despite the four interceptions in their Week 11 matchup, Darnold didn't take any sacks in the game, which has been a strength of his this season. He has four games with zero sacks, the second-most games by any quarterback this season (minimum 18 passes).
Seattle's run game has been bad all season, despite ranking fifth in total rushing attempts. It ranks 31st in yards before contact per attempt, 29th in rush EPA, 27th in rush success rate, and 21st in explosive run%, per FTN Fantasy. The Rams are elite against the run, so not much is likely to change here. Seattle thrives on play-action passes, mainly to Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Smith-Njigba has the best case of any Seattle player to win MVP as he's been historically great this year. His 680 receiving yards off play action are nearly 200 more than any other receiver, and five of his nine touchdowns have been off play action. The Rams' defense has been susceptible at times to play action, but has allowed just one team all season to throw for 100 yards off play action, which came last week against the Lions.
The Seahawks and Rams are in a class by themselves, and this is while playing in the NFL's toughest division this season. pic.twitter.com/xEBFvUfBDT
— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) December 17, 2025
Week 11's game against Seattle was one of Stafford's worst games as a Ram, posting the lowest yards per attempt (4.6) in five seasons in Los Angeles. Stafford has otherwise put together an MVP-caliber campaign with the Rams offense looking unstoppable. Play-action passes will be key to watch for the Rams as well, as Seattle is the only defense allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt below 4.0 against play action this season at just 3.66, per Fantasy Points Data.
Along with the potent pass game, the Rams have been otherworldly running the ball lately with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Since their Week 8 bye, they own an absurd 0.203 rush EPA and a 57% success rate. Against Seattle in Week 11, they still averaged 5.4 yards per carry against one of the league's top run defenses.
It's tough to bet against the Rams right now. Seattle's defense didn't overwhelm Rivers last week as many expected, largely because his time to throw was so quick. But the Rams should have a better plan to attack this time around and take firm control over the top seed in the NFC.
The Picks: Los Angeles Rams -1.5 (-104 Novig), Over 43.5 (+106 Novig)
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Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of Novig Sports Prediction Market
Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (-121)
Nacua is simply a machine. He's recorded at least eight catches in six of 13 games this season, and the Rams are likely to be without Adams on Thursday night. The star wideout just posted the most yards in a game of his career (181) last week against Detroit, and caught seven of eight targets for 75 yards, even in Stafford's worst game of the season in Week 11 versus Seattle.
Rashid Shaheed Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (+109)
Shaheed has posted 74 and 67 receiving yards in the past two games, earning 12 total targets. He's slowly been getting more integrated into Seattle's offense since being acquired at the trade deadline. The Seahawks need another dynamic weapon to take some pressure off JSN, and Shaheed is starting to become the guy that Seattle envisioned when trading for him.
Colts Defense respecting Rashid Shaheed speed. pic.twitter.com/w0fFeQ0jjd
— Alexandre Castro (@alexcastrofilho) December 17, 2025
Kyren Williams Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
The Rams said they wanted to dial back Williams' usage to preserve him for a deep playoff run, and they've done that by working Blake Corum in more in recent weeks. But Williams is still the lead dog and gets his touches. He's involved in the pass game with the third-most routes run on the Rams, only trailing Nacua and Adams, and has collected at least 10 yards through the air in nine of 14 games this season.
Plus, that's one nit you can pick with Seattle's elite defensive unit. It has allowed the most receptions to running backs (80) and the fifth-most receiving yards (563).
Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bets
Colby Parkinson Anytime Touchdown (+225)
Parkinson has been right alongside Adams for Stafford's favorite target in the red zone for an extended period of time now. Since Week 9, he's tied for the league lead with 15 targets in the red zone and is tied for second with six touchdowns.
If Adams is out, Parkinson has another great opportunity to find the end zone after scoring two last week against the Lions, though one of them was definitely not a touchdown, as he was clearly short, but it somehow stood anyway.
To quote @TomBrady, an absolute piss missle from Matthew Stafford to Colby Parkinson for six!
📺 @NFLonFOX | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/4OCFJe8QZ9
— x - Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 14, 2025
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