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Mike's Bowl Week 1 college football betting picks against the spread from Saturday, December 13 to Thursday, December 18. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
The bowls are now spread out so much that we have two bowl games on the day of the Army-Navy game. Oh well, more football is always better!
We'll take a look at the betting picks for Army-Navy and for the first week of the bowl games. The picks for the CFP bowls and the bowls on Christmas week will come out in the next piece. The first bowls of the CFP will also be included in those picks, as the lines are still in flux.
Let's take a look at the first against-the-spread picks of bowl season and review how I did during conference championship week. This will be the last recap until after the bowl season. We still have another five weeks of college football left. Is it me, or does this feel a lot like the NBA playoffs now?
CFB Betting Picks for 12/13 - 12/18
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has already jumped four points, as it should have. I still see Navy winning by a touchdown, so I'm glad the half is on our side.
Pick: Navy -6.5
Boise State vs. Washington (-9.5) at Los Angeles
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels about right since we know Demond Williams Jr. isn't opting out since he can't join the draft anyway. Jonah Coleman and Denzel Boston are likely gone, but Washington has enough to replace them.
Pick: Washington -9.5
Troy (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville State at Montgomery, AL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This should be a big deal with two Alabama teams playing in Montgomery. Tae Edwards has opted out for Troy, but it appears that Goose Crowder is playing. So is the FBS leading rusher Cam Cook for the Gamecocks.
Pick: Jacksonville State +3.5
Old Dominion vs. South Florida (-3.5) at Orlando
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This had the potential to be a great game, but both starting quarterbacks (Colton Joseph for Old Dominion and Byrum Brown for South Florida) have opted out. But hey, Byrum Brown is going to help coach the team. That's something, right?
Pick: South Florida -3.5
Louisiana (-3.5) vs. Delaware at Mobile, AL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
When your team has a quarterback named Lunch Winfield, you get bonus points.
Pick: Louisiana -3.5
Missouri State (-1.5) vs. Arkansas State at Frisco, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
So, the Bahamas Bowl becomes the Xbox Bowl. That's too bad. I'm just glad the Bears are going bowling. This is not a good matchup, though, especially with the coaching change and likely opt-outs that will come with it, for Missouri State.
Pick: Arkansas State +1.5
CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? I think I had a decent week, even though I didn't believe in my team. So it goes.
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2023-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Troy at (25) James Madison (-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
James Madison isn’t your typical 12-seed.
12-1 record. Elite run defense. A RB averaging 6.6 yards per carry.@oregonfootball should win… but don’t sleep on the Dukes.
Autzen is about to meet the CFP’s most overlooked threat.
👇 Full preview:https://t.co/Xw2147Yk5O… pic.twitter.com/O7FzfOlW4i
— Oregon Sports News (@oregonsportnews) December 10, 2025
Expect a lot of reform to the College Football Playoff since two Group of 5 teams got in. It doesn't even matter if they stay competitive or not.
Kennesaw State (-2.5) at Jacksonville State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Gamecocks had plenty of chances in this one, but we have to hand it to the Kennesaw defense. Cam Cook, the leading rusher in FBS, was held to 78 yards after he ran for 132 on the Owls in the first meeting.
(24) North Texas (-2.5) at (20) Tulane: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You will never guess… but both of these plays were called touchdowns. North Texas has repeatedly been on the wrong end of terrible officiating. Tulane is being gifted this one pic.twitter.com/KlUSjJ6wuu
— Pink Stripes (@OpinionatedZach) December 6, 2025
There were a lot of bad calls in this game. It's hard to say that it didn't swing the game in favor of Tulane when the final score was 34-21.
UNLV at Boise State (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
No surprise here, besides the emergence of Chase Penry for Boise State.
(11) BYU vs. (4) Texas Tech (-12.5) at Jerry World: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't have much of an issue with BYU missing the CFP after another beatdown at the hands of Texas Tech, but I do have a problem with Alabama getting blown out and not losing a single spot.
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan (-2.5) at Detroit: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Jalen Buckley dominated this game.
(3) Georgia (-2.5) vs. (9) Alabama at Atlanta: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Alabama hasn't played a good game in nearly two months, but yeah, let's put them in the CFP anyway...
(2) Indiana vs. (1) Ohio State (-4.5) at Indianapolis: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I've heard some people complain about this game. Why? It was a well-played game by both teams and looked the way a 1 vs. 2 game should. Both teams played like they cared about that Big Ten title.
I'm kind of disappointed that it was wasted on a conference championship game, but it was still a good one to watch.
Duke vs. (17) Virginia (-3.5) at Charlotte: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I don't even know how the ACC can be considered a serious conference anymore. The American was more of a power conference than this bunch...
College Football Betting Season Results
I only hit three of the nine conference championship games, but I'm above zero at 381-375 heading into the bowl games. Bowls are so difficult anymore because of opt-outs. You won't see as many big bets out of me in the bowls.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1.0-1 (49-39) = 10
2. 1-2 (128-148) = -40
3. 1-2 (136-118) = 54
4. 0-0 (50-53) = -12
5. 1-1 (23-17) = 30
I only lost six points, so I head into the bowls up 42 betting points on the season.
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