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Expert Week 11 Thursday Night Football bets, anytime TD scorer, and player prop predictions. Free TNF betting picks, anytime TD scorer, and player props for Week 11.
Thursday Night Football heads to Foxborough, Massachusetts, this week for an AFC East matchup between the 8-2 New England Patriots and 2-7 New York Jets. The Patriots won their seventh game in a row last week in Tampa Bay, while the Jets found a way to knock off the Browns last week to secure their second win of the season.
Drake Maye didn't have his best game against Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay defense, but rookie TreVeyon Henderson had his coming-out game, rushing for 147 yards that included touchdown runs of 55 and 69 yards. The Jets, meanwhile, rode a pair of special teams return touchdowns in the first quarter to victory despite Justin Fields completing only six passes for 54 yards, which included a 42-yard touchdown by Breece Hall on a screen.
Can the Jets pull off the road upset, or will the Patriots become the NFL's first team to reach nine wins this season? Let's get to the picks!
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Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
New York Jets +12.5 (+590 ML) at New England Patriots (-850 ML)
Over/Under (43.5)
This matchup marks the second primetime game at night for each team this season. The Jets lost 27-21 at Miami on Monday night in Week 4, while the Patriots upset Buffalo on the road on Sunday night in Week 5. That was Maye's first career start under the bright lights, and it was his only game this season without a touchdown and just the third of his young career. Maye still averaged 9.1 yards per attempt and made an outstanding play on their game-winning drive that only a few QBs in the league can make.
Drake Maye is something special.
NEvsBUF on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/uC1xeac3wl— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2025
The Jets made history with their win over the Browns last week. Before that game, teams were 225-0 since 1950 when holding an opponent to less than 175 yards and not committing a turnover, pretty on par for the Browns.
It will be an uphill battle for the Jets on Thursday night as 12.5-point underdogs, and facing a franchise that has owned them historically. They've won just two of their last 18 matchups with New England, though both of them have come within their last three meetings.
Patriots ruled out RB Rhamondre Stevenson and WR Kayshon Boutte for Thursday night’s game against the Jets. pic.twitter.com/MkDnPkYbyX
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 12, 2025
2025 Betting Trends:
- Against the Spread: NE 7-3, NYJ 5-4
- As Home Team ATS: NE 2-3
- As Away Team ATS: NYJ 2-1
- Over Game Total: NE 6-4, NE 6-3
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
From a matchup standpoint, this one doesn't favor the Jets. New York heavily relies on the ground game with Fields and Hall, but that's precisely where the New England defense has dominated this season.
They are allowing a league-low 79.2 rushing yards per game and just allowed their first individual running back to rush for 50 yards in a game all season in Week 10 versus Tampa Bay, with Sean Tucker going for 53 yards on nine carries. Although there were multiple close calls in that regard, with both Chuba Hubbard and James Cook finishing with exactly 49 yards in their games.
New England's run defense is also a little less potent when adjusting for the quality of the opponent, ranking ninth in defensive rushing DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. The Jets will ground and pound regardless of their opponent, as that is the strength of their offense.
The Jets rank eighth-highest in the league in ESPN's run block win rate metric (73%) and 16th in PFF's team run blocking grade. Their -8.8% pass rate over expectation is the lowest in the league by a full percentage point and would be the 10th lowest if it held over a full season since 2020, with the lowest being the 2022 Chicago Bears (14.1%) with Fields at QB.
The Jets will likely need another big game from Hall, who has been a game-changer in recent weeks. Fields loves to scramble (10.57%), but the Patriots take that away from opposing QBs as well, with the fifth-lowest opposing Scramble% (4.08%), per SumerSports.
BREECE HALL GIVES THE JETS THE LEAD ON THE SCREEN PASS
CLEvsNYJ on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/8Dt13i1OPp
— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
On the other side of the ball, the Jets' defense hasn't been great under defensive-minded head coach Aaron Glenn. Trading away their two best defensive players didn't help, but they were bad before that. The Jets play man coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the league for the season (33.7%). In their one game without Sauce Gardner in Week 10, they leaned into it even more, playing 44.2% man, the third highest of the week, per Fantasy Points Data Suite.
Maye has destroyed man coverage this season, averaging 10.58 yards per attempt. The next closest QB is Jalen Hurts at 8.95. The difference between Maye and Hurts is nearly the same as the difference between Hurts and Daniel Jones, who ranks 11th.
The Jets are vulnerable on the ground too, allowing the 10th-highest explosive run rate (runs of 15+ yards) at 12.4%. But lately, they've been even worse. Since Week 7, it's ballooned to 20.9%, second worst in that span. That could be dangerous with the rookie Henderson coming off his best game and in line for a sizable workload again.
We're not expecting the Jets to pull off the upset, but 12.5 is a lot of points. We'll take New York to keep it within shouting distance, and the over as New England should be able to consistently move the ball on this defense.
The Picks: New York Jets +12.5 (-104), Over 43.5 (-102)
Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Breece Hall 20+ Receiving Yards (+130)
Fields has been much better at finding his checkdown over the past two seasons. He still scrambles near a league-high rate, but it's come down a tick. Hall has cleared this number in five of nine games this season, and without star WR Garrett Wilson (knee), their star RB is clearly their best offensive weapon, and they'd be wise to find many ways to get him the ball. With his explosiveness, all he needs is one catch to break off a big gain.
New England's linebackers are great coming downhill to defend the run, but covering out in space is not their strength, allowing a league high 61 receptions to opposing running backs.
TreVeyon Henderson Longest Rush Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
We'll ride with the explosive rookie off an impressive performance last week against Tampa Bay. Henderson had gains of 16, 55, and 69 in the game. After struggling to earn consistent playing time for the majority of the year and posting poor advanced numbers in a limited sample as a result, Henderson now ranks 19th out of 43 qualified RBs in explosove rush rate (11.1%), sandwiched in between Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. With the Jets' weaknesses in this area as discussed above, we'll take the rookie second-rounder to pop at least one explosive gain.
Breakout day for TreVeyon Henderson
- 14 carries
- 147 rush yards
- 2 TDs@Patriots | @FedEx pic.twitter.com/9vJgi3MGCW— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
Will McDonald IV To Record A Sack (+140)
McDonald had the most dominant individual defensive performances of the season by a player not named Myles Garrett in last week's win over the Browns, generating nine pressures and four sacks. The four sacks in a game only trail Garrett's five sack performance against the... New England Patriots in Week 8. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell has allowed 24 pressures and five sacks this season, both ranking in the bottom 16 among tackles this season, per PFF, and that's been one weakness of Maye's game, owning the fourth-highest sack rate in the league (10.9%).
Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bets
Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+140)
Henry leads the Patriots with six targets inside the 10-yard line this season and is second with nine in the red zone. The Jets have allowed seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, tied for the second most. The 30-year-old tight end isn't a major target earner otherwise, but his young quarterback often looks his way down near the end zone. Plus, he's scored 13 touchdowns in 20 career games at night and seven in nine games on Thursdays.
More Picks and Analysis
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