MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/28/2025)

August 28, 2025

Kevin Larson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/28/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Ketel Marte, Jeremy Peña, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and more!

Here we go with some more home run props for Thursday's action. It's a getaway day in the early slate, while the late games feature three new series starting up.

Today I'm coming at you with five bets in total. I've got three I like in the early slate and two for later on. We'll be fading an overachieving pitcher to start the day while we look to take advantage of one specific pitch for two hitters in the nightcap. There is same game parlay potential with these as well if you so choose! Just make sure starting pitcher matchups haven't changed, as the bets depend greatly on these matchups.

In this article, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, August 28, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/28/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, August 28:

• Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Arizona Diamondbacks
• Jeremy Peña, Houston Astros
• Trent Grisham, New York Yankees
• Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees

Ketel Marte OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 - DraftKings)

Starting pitcher matchup: Jose Quintana

Marte is probably my favorite bet on the board today thanks to the matchup against Quintana. Now we're not tapping into a situation where Marte is admittedly at his strongest; rather, the urge to fade Quintana is too appealing. The southpaw has a 3.32 ERA on the year to go along with a 5.02 xERA and a 4.78 xFIP. The dude has been getting very lucky this season.

Dive into Quintana's splits, and we can see his fly-ball rate is up to 46.6% in August. In his two home starts this month, he's gotten 26 flyballs out of 42 batters faced. He's only yielded three homers off those flyballs, but that is still plenty of opportunity he's allowing in the air. And while three homers is a low number for that many flyballs, the offenses of San Francisco and Pittsburgh don't exactly have weapons like Marte.

Ketel Marte = CLUTCH. 🐐 pic.twitter.com/bjegfsg4D3

— MLB Español (@mlbespanol) August 13, 2025

The switch hitter has been hitting the ball in the air more and more over the past few months and projects well against the four main pitches he's likely to see from Quintana (sinker, changeup, curve, four-seamer). And if Quintana gets into trouble early, forcing the Brewers to bring in a right-hander from the bullpen, Marte profiles very well against righties on the road.

Marte is 5-12 against Quintana in his career with one bomb. It also doesn't hurt that he's been very comfortable hitting at American Family Field, posting a career 1.176 OPS when playing in Milwaukee. He should have a decent day at the plate, and I'm willing to take a chance on him smashing one out of the park.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+700 - DraftKings)

Starting pitcher matchup: Jose Quintana

We've got another DBack on the bet slip for many of the same reasons but with more of a longshot price at +700. You already know why I want to fade Quintana, so let's dive into why I like Gurriel alongside Marte today.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. now has 32 RBI this month. pic.twitter.com/Z2Q65ZVXon

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) August 26, 2025

The 31-year-old is currently having his best month at the plate in terms of homers, smashing seven of his 19 bombs this month. That's mostly thanks to a 20.6% HR/FB rate, indicating that he's seeing the ball well and doing real damage when he gets the barrel on it.

The pitch Quintana is most likely to give up a homer on is his sinker. Gurriel is currently smashing them for a .352 wOBA to go along with a .400 xwOBA. He's barely missing when he swings at them (4.8% whiff rate), so we can feel confident that he's going to hit the ball well if he puts one in play.

Gurriel is 2-7 in his career against Quintana, with one of those being a homer. His average launch angle in those ABs has been 26.8 degrees. So even though Quintana may stay sinker-heavy, Gurriel's going to find a way to get it in the air instead of getting the grounders Quintana's trying to induce. Let's hope one of these ends up in the seats.

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Jeremy Peña OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 - DraftKings)

Starting pitcher matchup: Kyle Freeland

It may be tempting to look at someone like Christian Walker or Jose Altuve in this spot, but I think that Peña is going to provide a little bit more value for us with some higher odds.

To start, we are in Peña's best flyball scenario, posting a 39.3% flyball rate against lefties at home. That's paired with an 18.2% HR/FB rate, giving us an advantageous start. He's also posting a 40.0% FB rate in August, the highest mark he's posted in any month. It hasn't converted into many long balls yet, but it provides us with more opportunities for this prop to cash.

Jeremy Peña golfs one out! pic.twitter.com/LOqcUdSxYb

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 28, 2025

Now, when you bet against the Rockies' pitching staff, you'd normally expect them to be better away from Coors Field. That's not the case with Freeland when it comes to homers. He's allowed 18 on the year and 12 of those have come on the road. Even better for us, all 12 of those have come against righties. If you're wondering why I'm not backing Yordan Alvarez in this spot as a strong left-on-left hitter, well this is why.

The two pitches that will be prone to homers today will be four-seamers and cutters. Peña obliterates four-seamers (.452 wOBA, .454 xwOBA) while being decent against cutters. Our hopes will lie in him getting a four-seamer in the zone that he can pull.

If Freeland gets pulled early, then Peña gets a chance against the Rockies' bullpen, which has given up the fourth most homers in August. I like the chances of Peña going deep today with a bit more value than you might find with Altuve and Walker. Let's see one land in the Crawford Boxes.

Trent Grisham OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 - DraftKings)

Starting pitcher matchup: Davis Martin

The first of two Yankees I like in tonight's game, and I like both for many of the same reasons. The first is Davis Martin's splits against lefties at home, where they're hitting him for a .362 wOBA to go with a 43.4% fly-ball rate and a 16.7% HR/FB rate. Decent numbers to target.

Trent Grisham having 19 bombs this year is absolutely outrageouspic.twitter.com/kwFgBaKf2n

— Eric Hubbs (@BarstoolHubbs) August 2, 2025

The second is his cutter. Against lefties, it's been the pitch that's most prone to be hit out of the park, allowing five homers on 37 balls in play this season. This is where I really like Grisham, as he's absolutely crushed cutters in 2025.

He's hit them for a .628 wOBA to go with a .564 xwOBA. It's a pitch he almost always gets into the air and punishes when he does. If Martin doesn't throw him a cutter, then we'll see either a four-seamer or a changeup, both pitches which the 28-year-old is smashing as well.

Grisham is in his best scenario when facing righties on the road, hitting them for a 192 wRC+. The matchup feels too good to pass up. Let's get a cutter in the zone and watch it quickly fly out of the park.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 - DraftKings)

Starting pitcher matchup: Davis Martin

The same ideas apply here: A Yankees lefty who crushes cutters. Chisholm's numbers against cutters aren't as gaudy (.422 wOBA, .418 xwOBA), but they're still more than respectable.

Canada Drive 🔥@j_chisholm3 💣 pic.twitter.com/0HIdG3u8H6

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) July 22, 2025

As for his splits, we're going a bit against the grain, as Chisholm has not been the most solid hitter on the road compared to when he's at Yankee Stadium. What we do love to see, though, is that he still makes a concerted effort to hit the ball in the air on the road, posting a 48.1% fly-ball rate against righties in this situation. That's the exact number he's posted in August, which includes a really nice 28.0% HR/FB rate.

Of the three main pitches that Chisholm is likely to see (cutters, four-seamers, changeups), the main worry will be the changeup. Martin prioritizes these against lefties, and Chisholm's expected stats against changeups don't predict good things happening in the future (.328 wOBA, .267 xwOBA). But a changeup is no good without setting it up with a fastball, and the 27-year-old should get chances at a few of them.

Here's to hoping we see a few cutters in the zone so we can cash our bets. Good luck with whatever you play, and let's have ourselves a day here.

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