Sneaky Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups, Buys: Week 16 - Hot Pitchers To Sustain Success In 2025?

July 17, 2025

Andy looks at four sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 16 (2025) on hot streaks, and sees if they can sustain their success.

We have made it to the All-Star break. While we don't have to set our lineups for a few days, it doesn't mean we can take our foot off the gas when looking at the waiver wire.

In this piece, I will break down four emerging starting pitchers that are still widely available in over 50% of all Yahoo! leagues.

Who should fantasy managers be targeting this week? Let's dive in!

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

45% Rostered

After posting a rough 7.11 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP across his first 19 innings in Baltimore last season, the left-hander was not on the radar of many fantasy managers heading into the 2025 regular season. Additionally, Rogers missed time early due to a right knee subluxation.

He eventually made his season debut on May 24 and looked quite strong, tossing 6 1/3 innings of two-hit ball with no runs and no walks. He struck out five. However, he was sent back to Triple-A shortly after.

On June 18, the southpaw returned to the rotation and has continued to perform well, and seems to have rekindled some of his former high prospect pedigree. Over his last 29 innings, Rogers has posted a stellar 1.86 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP. During this stretch, the left-hander has struck out 27 hitters while allowing only 10 walks.

Should fantasy managers buy into the former 13th overall pick's resurgence?

Rogers first made a name for himself back in 2021 when he was named to the 2021 All-Star team with the Marlins, posting a remarkable 2.64 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP across 133 innings. However, since then, the left-hander has dealt with injuries and has never been able to find his footing.

Through 35 1/3 total innings this season, the southpaw sits with a 2.94 xERA (86th percentile) and a .225 xBA (77th percentile), which are both very positive signs. He has also posted an elite 4.4% barrel rate while showing above-average command (62nd percentile walk rate) and strikeout potential (61st percentile).

Trevor Rogers, Filthy 85mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/GmfZh68ofj

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 12, 2025

Rogers leans heavily on his four-seamer (40.6% usage) and mixes in a changeup (28.3% usage), sinker (18.4%), with occasionally a slider and sweeper.

In June, his four-seamer posted an impressive 35.7% whiff rate but carried a .321 xwOBA, much higher than the base .261 wOBA it generated. His changeup was elite, holding a .249 xwOBA, but his sinker hurt him at times, carrying a .436 xwOBA.

However, through his first two starts in July, his four-seamer and sinker have taken a step forward, now carrying a .234 xwOBA and a .293 xwOBA. To see his primary fastballs continue to show steady improvement is a very positive sign for his rest of the season outlook. If his fastballs remain strong, his changeup and breaking pitches will benefit greatly.

Rogers is a top waiver wire pitcher to target as he appears to be poised to enjoy a productive second half.

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

43% Rostered

The left-hander played a significant role in New York's march to the NLCS last season. However, he opened the season on the 15-day injured list due to an elbow and oblique injury. He was able to take the bump for the first time in a bulk relief outing this past Sunday. He logged 3 1/3 innings behind Clay Holmes and allowed one run, five hits, and seven punchouts. He did not allow a walk.

Last season, the 33-year-old was one of the most dominant pitchers in the second half and emerged as the ace of the staff. After the All-Star break, Manaea posted a solid 3.48 ERA with a stellar 0.94 WHIP across 85 1/3 innings of work. During this stretch, Manaea struck out 88 hitters and allowed only 23 walks.

He was relatively solid in the postseason as he made four starts and allowed two or fewer in three of them. His best start came in the NLDS against the Phillies, where he logged seven innings of one-run ball with six punchouts.

Should fantasy managers expect another big second half from Manaea?

A primary reason Manaea found success in the second half was the improvement of his changeup. During the first half of the season, this pitch posted a high .341 xwOBA and a .506 xwOBA in June and July, respectively. However, over the final two months, this pitch posted a remarkable .168 xwOBA and a .228 xwOBA, respectively.

His four-seamer also posted a strong .275 xwOBA and a .293 xwOBA over the final two months, which were both the best marks of the campaign concerning the first half. In addition, he also ditched his sinker and cutter after the Midsummer Classic, which helped him focus primarily on his four-seamer, sweeper, and changeup.

In his debut outing on Sunday, Manaea was primarily a two-pitch pitcher, employing his four-seam and sweeper nearly 96% of the time. Both pitches were highly effective, as both held a whiff rate of over 40%. His four-seamer velocity remained very similar, sitting at 93 mph, while his slider increased to 80 mph (sat around 75 mph last season).

The Mets have done an excellent job putting Manaea in a position to succeed with his modified arsenal. Adding velocity to his slider could make him even more effective when looking for strikeouts. He is a must-add wherever available.

Sean Manaea struck out 7 batters in his first outing of 2025, flashing his potential for the second half of the season https://t.co/aHo3AjITtG pic.twitter.com/BxMJ9lPNvl

— SNY (@SNYtv) July 14, 2025

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

25% Rostered

After discussing two veteran pitchers, let's take a look at a prospect who recently made his MLB debut. Last Wednesday evening, Cam Schlittler received a call from the New York Yankees and made his MLB debut against the Seattle Mariners. In this outing, the right-hander looked quite comfortable tossing 5 1/3 innings of three-run ball with two walks and seven strikeouts.

Most of his damage came on the long ball as shortstop J.P. Crawford and infielder Jorge Polanco both took him deep. However, it was a very promising debut for the former seventh-round pick.

Earlier in the season, Schlittler was very impressive in the minor leagues. He opened the season with Double-A Somerset but needed just 53 innings to prove he was ready for a promotion. Through his first and only 23 2/3 innings with Triple-A, Schlittler struck out 35 hitters, allowing only nine walks, and held a 3.80 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP.

Could we be witnessing a breakout campaign?

FanGraphs ranks the right-hander as the No. 5 prospect in the system, while MLB.com has him as their No. 10 best prospect. FanGraphs graded his four-seamer a solid 60, but his curveball and slider received 50 and 40 scores, respectively, suggesting they are slightly below average currently. However, the curveball is given a 60 future score, suggesting it does have promise and could continue to develop.

In his debut, he deployed his four-seamer 53.3% of the time and mixed in his slider 28.0% of the time. His top pitchers looked as advertised, as both boasted a .279 xwOBA and a .231 xwOBA, respectively. In addition, his four-seamer held a 28.6% whiff rate, while his slider generated a strong 36.4% whiff rate.

While his metrics are promising, he may not be given the longest look. Right-hander Luis Gil (lat) is expected to make his season debut later in July and will likely take his spot in the rotation. However, if Marcus Stroman or Will Warren struggle or suffer an injury, Schlittler would likely be the next man up.

Given his strong debut, he is worth adding in all 12+ team leagues this week, even if he only makes a few more starts before Gil returns.

Cam Schlittler gets his first strikeout throwing 💯 and his family couldn't be more proud 🥹 pic.twitter.com/isf0Oag4nT

— MLB (@MLB) July 9, 2025

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

15% Rostered

Rounding out this list is 25-year-old left-hander Joey Cantillo of the Cleveland Guardians. Cantillo made his MLB debut last season and appeared in nine games (eight starts) and held a 4.89 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP across 38 2/3 innings.

This season, the Guardians opted to have him open the season in the bullpen. As a reliever, Cantillo was quite solid, as he had a 3.81 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP across 28 1/3 innings. His ratios were vastly inflated by a five-run outing on May 10 against the Phillies. He struck out 36 batters (11.8 K/9) while allowing 14 walks.

However, since the start of July, the Guardians have deployed Cantillo as a starter, replacing Luis L. Ortiz in the rotation. Through three starts in July, Cantillo has posted a 4.97 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP across 12 2/3 innings. However, during this stretch, he has shown even higher strikeout upside, tallying 18 (12.8 K/9) while allowing only six walks.

Can fantasy managers trust his increase in strikeout production?

As shown by the graph below, Cantillo has seen all four of his pitches generate more swallows as the season progresses, with July being his highest mark for three of his pitches.

While he should remain a viable option for strikeouts, his four-seamer (deployed 37.3% of the time in July) will limit his upside. In July, this pitch generated a high .419 xwOBA and held an even higher .498 xwOBA in May. Overall, he sits with a 47th percentile xERA and a high 9.3% barrel rate. Additionally, his hefty 11.0% walk rate could also inflate your WHIP ratios.

Cantillo is a viable streaming option in favorable settings, but should not be targeted on the waiver wire like the three pitchers above.

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