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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/19/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Austin Wells, Mickey Moniak, Brent Rooker, and Isaac Paredes.
We have a full slate of games for Thursday's MLB action. We have games at Great American Ball Park, Steinbrenner Field, and Sutter Health Park (the last two parks are minor league stadiums). We also have elite hitting weather on the East Coast. Washington, New York, Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Sacramento all have great hitting weather. I am ready to take on these environments and pick some home runs tonight.
I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run hits.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, June 19, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings, FanDuel, or Fanatics Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/19/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, June 19:
- Mickey Moniak, Colorado Rockies
- Austin Wells, New York Yankees
- Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros
- Brent Rooker, Athletics
Mickey Moniak OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+560 FanDuel)
Our first home run bet of the day will occur this afternoon in Washington at Nationals Park. It will be in the mid-90s today at first pitch with the wind blowing out to right center field at 10+ mph. Trevor Williams will square off against Chase Dollander.
I like both sides of this game for lefty power, but the arm I want to attack from that side of the plate is Trevor Williams. Williams has allowed a .421 wOBA, .197 ISO, 1.8 HR/9, and a 39.1% FB to lefties in 2025. He has a .394 wOBA and a .226 ISO against righties over the last 30 days.
Williams has struggled in 2025 to a 4.31 xFIP, 8.1% SwStr, 1.43 WHIP, and a 1.04 HR/9. He has 1.14 HR/9 and a 48.1% FB over his last 30. The Rockies have been red hot, so there are plenty of options to choose from, but Mickey Moniak profiles the best for me.
Moniak is swinging a hot bat this season against right-hand pitching. He has a .327 wOBA, .255 ISO, 42.3% FB, and a 42.0% Hard Hit against the split this season. Over his last 21 plate appearances, Moniak has a .683 wOBA and a .789 ISO.
Williams has given up five home runs off his four-seamer this season. It has a .377 wOBA and a .515 SLG against it. Williams is a soft-tossing righty, so profiling his specific fastball is very beneficial to us. Moniak has a .617 wOBA, .600 ISO, 41 LA, and 1 HR against pitchers with the same velocity as his four-seamer.
Austin Wells OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+410 Fanatics)
Austin Wells is my favorite home run bet of the day. He is in an elite spot even with the left-on-left matchup against Tyler Anderson. It will be 95 degrees at first pitch with a 10+ mph wind blowing out to left field. We have another spot with elite hitting conditions.
The southpaw Anderson has a 5.02 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, 1.56 HR/9, and a 50.0% FB this season. He has a 5.60 xFIP, 1.95 WHIP, 1.46 HR/9, and a 44.6% FB this season. Anderson is not your traditional lefty, as he has severe reverse splits. He has a .415 wOBA, .287 ISO, 2.7 HR/9, and a 53.6% FB this season against left-hand hitters.
Wells is not only the best lefty bat against left-hand pitching this season, but he is also the hottest bat in the entire lineup against the split. He has a .474 wOBA and a .348 ISO over his last 30 against the split. Wells on the season has a .368 wOBA, a .300 ISO, 52.9% FB, and a 32.7% Hard Hit rate.
Anderson has allowed 11 of his 13 home runs against two pitches, his four-seamer and changeup. The four-seamer has five home runs and a .550 xSLG against it, and the changeup has six home runs against it and a .390 xSLG. Below is how Wells performs against those pitches from lefties.
- Four seamer: 24 pitches, 1.285 wOBA, 1.000 ISO, 23 LA, 1 HR
- Changeup: 13 pitches, .831 wOBA, 1.200 ISO, 30 LA, 2 HR
If the pitch data wasn't frosting on top, I don't know what else to tell you besides fire up Wells this afternoon.
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Isaac Paredes OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+560 Fanatics)
Our last two home run bets of the night will come from the same game. Yes, you guessed it, these are elite hitting conditions tonight at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. It will be in the mid-70s with 15-10 mph winds blowing out to the right field tonight—two southpaws in Jacob Lopez and Colton Gordon toe the rubber tonight.
Paredes is usually a bat I like to target right-handed pitching with this season, but this matchup is the sweet spot for him. Lopez has a 4.37 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, 1.80 HR/9, and a 59.5% FB this season. He has a 2.35 HR/9 and a 65.5% FB over his last 30 days. Lopez has struggled with righties this season to a .376 wOBA, .162 ISO, 1.9 HR/9, and a 58.5% FB. They also have a 40.9% Pull, and in this wind and jet stream, it is essential to note.
The Astros are full of righties to attack with, but Paredes profiled the best for me. He has a .285 wOBA, .214 ISO, and a 56.0% FB this season against the split. He has a .420 wOBA and a .333 ISO against LHP over his last twelve at-bats.
Lopez has allowed four of his six home runs this season off his four-seamer. It has a .461 xSLG against it this season. In a 59 pitch sample size this season, Paredes has a .644 wOBA, .625 ISO, 29 LA, and 3 HR. He has a 0% Whiff off that pitch. Some significant numbers in this pitch mix data give me the green light to predict a Paredes home run tonight off a Lopez four-seamer.
Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 FanDuel)
Our last and final bet will be in the same game environment, with the Athletics hosting the rookie southpaw Colton Gordon with elite hitting conditions. Brent Rooker is a simple home run bet. Is he facing a lefty? If the answer to that question is yes, then bet him.
In all reality, it's not that simple, but Rooker is a bona fide lefty masher. He has a .456 wOBA, .339 ISO, 41.7% FB, and a 37.5% Hard Hit against southpaws this season. He has a .485 wOBA and a .263 ISO against the split over his last 30 days.
Gordon has been a decent arm since his call-up this season. He has a 3.30 xFIP, 9.3% SwStr, 1.34 WHIP, 1.76 HR/9, 37.9% FB, and a 36.8% Hard Hit. Over his last 30 games, he has a 1.72 HR/9 and a 38.5% Hard Hit rate. Righties have a .380 wOBA, .250 ISO, 2.1 HR/9, and a 41.0% FB against this season.
I love having two elite hitters bring us home on Thursday night.
Thanks for checking out my home run props today at RotoBaller, good luck if you are tailing any or all of these bets!
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