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Dave's 5 second-year fantasy football breakout candidates to target in drafts. These players can emerge as league-winners in 2025. Malik Nabers, Bucky Irving, Isaac Guerendo, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy.
While fantasy football managers used to avoid rookies like the plague, their approach towards them has softened in recent years. This is mainly due to the number of rookies recently entering the league and immediately producing like seasoned veterans.
However, not all players hit the ground running in their first year. While some players excel from the start, others need a little seasoning before taking off. It’s why we often see a production boost for some second-year players compared to their rookie season. So, which second-year players carry potential league-winning upside? Let’s take a few minutes and find out.
Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are five potential league-winning sophomore players to target in your 2025 fantasy football draft.
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Malik Nabers - WR, New York Giants
Nabers enjoyed an all-world rookie season in 2024. Despite missing two games, Nabers posted a 109-1204-7 line on an incredible 170 targets. He finished the season as the PPR WR6.
Malik Nabers has a touchdown!
📺: #NYGvsCLE on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/4XDd73juH1— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
His advanced metrics were also highly impressive. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Nabers boasted a 32% targets per route run (TPRR), a 2.30 yards per route run (YPRR) on a 32.2% target share. These are all powerful marks that indicate Nabers has elite upside for fantasy football purposes.
The sophomore wide receiver has been battling toe and shoulder injuries this summer. The ailments have caused him to miss several practices. Nabers is now reportedly battling a minor, undisclosed injury. While we would prefer players not be dinged up before the regular season begins, none of this sounds too concerning, and Nabers should be good to go once the Giants' regular season begins on September 7th.
While Nabers was relatively affordable last year, he is considerably more expensive in 2025 drafts, as evidenced by his current NFFC ADP of 9.67 overall. While Nabers already has a big season to his name, there is room for him to improve upon his WR6 finish from a year ago. His situation remains less than ideal, but he has the talent to finish as a top-3 receiver.
J.J. McCarthy - QB, Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy missed his entire rookie year in 2024 after tearing his meniscus in training camp.
BREAKING: Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy is out for the 2024 season after undergoing a full meniscus repair this morning. (via @RapSheet, @TomPelissero) pic.twitter.com/GgpgfiNYRX
— NFL (@NFL) August 14, 2024
Following McCarthy’s injury, Sam Darnold became Minnesota’s de facto QB1 and had an incredible 2024. He threw for a career-high 4,319 yards and 35 passing touchdowns but came crashing down to earth in the season’s final two games. As a result, the Vikings opted not to re-sign Darnold and let him walk in free agency.
Minnesota has since proven it is fully committed to McCarthy, and the second-year signal-caller is set to lead the Vikings QB room for the 2025 season.
J.J. McCarthy to Trishton Jackson for the 45 yard TD!
And @JJettas2 LOVES it!
📺: #LVvsMIN on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/QmEKsnabMz— NFL (@NFL) August 10, 2024
McCarthy is a bit of a wild card in drafts since he missed his entire rookie year. However, he is still a quarterback with top-10 draft capital tied to a strong offensive coach and is surrounded by an abundance of talent. It's hard to find a better situation for a first-time starting quarterback.
Yes, we don't know McCarthy's true floor, and he could hurt your team if he's truly awful. But he might also have a higher ceiling than some people think. Head coach Kevin O'Connell worked wonders for Darnold's career last year. It shouldn't be that surprising if McCarthy has similar production in 2025.
Drake Maye- QB, New England Patriots
Maye didn’t take over as the team’s starting quarterback until Week 6 last year, but he showed great potential throughout the season. What’s most intriguing about Maye’s profile is the rushing upside he showed as a rookie. Maye ran for 421 rushing yards in just 13 games.
If we project that over a full 17-game season, Maye was on pace for over 550 rushing yards. That kind of rushing production can put Maye in QB1 territory.
DRAKE MAYE. 17-yard rushing TD for the rookie!
📺: #NYJvsNE on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/QCLpeTf9xG— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
New England has done its best to upgrade Maye's weapons this offseason. The team signed Stefon Diggs to a three-year, $69 million contract and drafted running back TreVeyon Henderson in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. New England also selected underrated rookie wide receiver Kyle Williams in the third round of the NFL Draft.
These moves should elevate Maye's passing production in 2025. Despite the new toys, this offense still has a way to go in terms of elite playmakers. But the 2025 group is certainly better compared to what Maye worked with in 2024.
Ultimately, Maye's emergence as a league-winner comes down to his rushing usage. If we see the same rushing production from 2024 combined with an increase in designed runs and a boost in passing output, then that will be good enough to get the job done.
Bucky Irving - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Irving enjoyed a fantastic rookie year in 2024. He began the season as the backup to incumbent starter Rachaad White, but Irving soon clarified that he was the far superior player. Irving ran for 1,122 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns on just 207 carries. He also added 47 receptions for 392 receiving yards.
It all culminated in a PPR RB13 finish.
Bucky. Irving. Is. A. Stud.
Touchdown for the rookie!!! pic.twitter.com/OmG9VW29Sv
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 23, 2024
What makes Irving’s 2024 even more remarkable is that he accomplished everything he did despite playing 60% of offensive snaps in just two games. That should change in 2025. The current Buccaneers coaching staff has previously shown they have no issues giving one back the majority of touches. Tampa Bay gave White all the volume he could handle in 2023 when he was the team’s lead back.
Given how Irving played last year, we should expect Tampa Bay to fully turn over the backfield to Irving and make him their workhorse. That means there is plenty of room for more production in 2025. Fantasy gamers can confidently draft Irving as he should return solid RB1 production with a chance he finishes in the top five.
Isaac Guerendo - RB, San Francisco 49ers
Guerendo saw time as the 49ers' RB1 while filling in for Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason last year. The sophomore rusher is a speedy back who played well in limited action. He averaged 5.0 yards per carry, ran for 420 yards, and scored four rushing touchdowns as a rookie.
The 49ers start off the 4th quarter with a Isaac Guerendo TD!
📺: #CHIvsSF on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/D4PKMHxzZc— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024
Among 70 backs with 50+ carries, Guerendo also finished seventh in Fantasy Points Data Suite's missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF/ATT). This stat essentially measures a running back's ability to create yards for himself, regardless of poor offensive line play or other factors.
Calling Guerendo a league-winner may seem like a stretch, but there is a path toward RB1 value. Guerendo now enters 2025 as the RB2 behind McCaffrey. Given the latter's injury history, Guerendo may see an extended run as a starter in 2025. If he does, he’ll be a hot ticket item on waivers.
Unfortunately, Guerendo is currently sidelined with a shoulder injury he suffered in training camp. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has stated that Guerendo is expected to miss a few weeks. While that's less than ideal, he is still the team's second-best option behind McCaffrey and could easily return by the time Week 1 rolls around. Even if he does miss a game or two, Guerendo would still be a good bench stash in case of an early-season McCaffrey injury.
While Guerendo will not supplant McCaffrey anytime soon, he is talented enough to return RB1 production if McCaffrey ever goes down. Fantasy gamers should consider Guerendo a priority target in the closing rounds of all drafts as he carries potential league-winning upside.
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