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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/19/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Elly De La Cruz, Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Stowers, and more.
We've got a smaller slate of MLB action on Monday, forcing us to dig deeper to find spots to choose from for home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Brent Rooker, Randy Arozarena, Rhys Hoskins, Elly De La Cruz, and Kyle Stowers. Each player has elite power or a favorable matchup.
The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several important factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to make sure that we're getting a favorable price in terms of betting odds. You don't want to be paying inflated lines on improbable outcomes like home runs.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, May 19, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/19/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Monday, May 19:
- Brent Rooker, Athletics
- Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners
- Rhys Hoskins, Milwaukee Brewers
- Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
- Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins
Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Brent Rooker pounds a 3-run shot 💪 pic.twitter.com/zyXdtqeoqV
— MLB (@MLB) May 10, 2025
Rooker is currently slashing .238/.301/.444 with 10 home runs in 206 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics look impressive, as highlighted by a 14.0% barrel rate.
The A's slugger hasn't homered in seven straight games, but six of those matchups came on the road. Tonight, Rooker will get to hit in the bandbox that is Sutter Health Park.
It's an exploitable matchup against Angels' righty Jose Soriano, who currently has a 4.31 xERA, a bit higher than his 3.46 ERA. Soriano has allowed a 9.6% barrel rate this year, which ranks in the 34th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
We've seen Rooker hit the ball hard against Soriano, including one homer and a .762 xwOBA in six plate appearances against him.
Considering that this is a hitter who slugged 39 home runs last year, along with the favorable park factors and head-to-head matchup with Soriano, you must love getting this price at (+400) odds.
Randy Arozarena OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Randy Arozarena - Seattle Mariners (6)
pic.twitter.com/3A53hCH42v— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) May 18, 2025
Arozarena is currently slashing .242/.380/.425 with six home runs in 187 plate appearances. This includes a 9.8% barrel rate (+1.5% from 2204) and a 49.0% pull rate (+1.9% from 2024), which are encouraging signs.
The Mariners' outfielder comes into Monday's action fresh off a game where he homered against Michael King, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year.
We could see Arozarena get it done again in this spot, as it's an exploitable matchup against Davis Martin. According to Baseball Savant, the White Sox righty has a 5.97 xERA and 1.09 HR/9 this season, including a 10.5% barrel rate that ranks in the 23rd percentile.
Additionally, we've seen Arozarena succeed against Martin in a small sample, featuring one home run and a .464 xwOBA in five plate appearances.
With how Arozarena hits the ball harder while pulling it more often, along with Martin's hard contact allowed, you can see why the (+400) price looks appealing in this spot.
Rhys Hoskins OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)
#Brewers Rhys Hoskins, now into his second full season after his injury, has had a quietly strong start
- Batting .276/.384/.423
- Best K% (22.6%) since 2018
- Best BB% (13.7%) since 2020
- .357 wOBA/ .357 xwOBA (not a typo)
- .411 xwOBAcon
- 12.1% Barrel%
- 47.3% hard hit%
-… pic.twitter.com/ttixYaZ0v7— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) May 13, 2025
Hoskins is in the middle of a bounce-back season, slashing .288/.392/.446 with five homers in 166 plate appearances. This includes an 11.5% barrel rate and a 111.1 MPH maximum exit velocity, which is more in line with career norms after he put up 109.6 MPH last year.
The veteran first baseman has hit safely in nine of his last 11 games, highlighted by a four-hit, one-homer game on May 14 against the Guardians. We could see Hoskins keep it rolling against Orioles' righty Dean Kremer.
We've seen Hoskins succeed against Kremer, including one homer and a .791 xwOBA in three plate appearances. It also helps that Kremer has struggled, allowing a 10.1% barrel rate, which ranks in the 29th percentile.
Kremer has had issues with the longball all year long, as highlighted by a 1.79 HR/9. The veteran righty has given up three homers in his last two starts, including two against the Twins in his last outing.
Considering Hoskins's return to form after a long layoff due to injury last season, coupled with Kremer's struggles this year, you have to like getting a (+425) price here.
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Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Elly De La Cruz homers for the 3rd time in 5 games! 💪 pic.twitter.com/Nc6rf9okE8
— MLB (@MLB) May 15, 2025
De La Cruz currently has a .246/.317/.406 slash with eight home runs in 208 plate appearances. The dynamic shortstop has gone yard in three of his last nine games. We'll likely start to see Elly rack up homers, as he's still been hitting the ball hard, including a 12.5% barrel rate and 114.9 maximum exit velocity.
The good news is that we have a good matchup on tap in this spot, where Elly will face Mitch Keller. Elly has performed well vs. Keller throughout his career, featuring .398 xwOBA in 13 plate appearances. Reports also indicate winds blowing out in Pittsburgh, which could turn a flyball into a home run.
As a switch-hitter, Elly does better against righties, as highlighted by a 106 wRC+ and .178 ISO against them (66 wRC+ and .121 ISO vs lefties). On the other side, Keller is a lot worse vs. lefties, allowing a .373 wOBA (compared to .226 against righties).
With how Elly is starting to get hot, we could see him hit his fourth homer in the last 10 games in this favorable spot.
We're getting an appealing price of (+500) odds on a hitter who makes hard contact and has untapped power upside, so let's ride with Elly to hit his ninth homer of the year tonight.
Kyle Stowers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Another HR for former Oriole Kyle Stowers with the Marlins, while Trevor Rogers has a 7.50 ERA in Triple-Apic.twitter.com/KIoBPs6Jl6
— Baltimore Sports Fan (@88OriolesFan88) May 14, 2025
The last home run prop on this page includes a Marlins' hitter who has proven to be a major steal following last year's trade at the deadline. Former Oriole Stowers now carries a .305/.382/.563 slash with 10 home runs in 174 plate appearances.
This is a left-handed hitter with all 10 of his homers coming against righties, which is good news because he'll be getting one in Ben Brown tonight. This is the second straight start for Brown against the Marlins. In the previous outing, he gave up a homer to Stowers.
We've seen Brown have a tough time with lefties this season, giving up a .370 wOBA against them, compared to only a .306 wOBA against righties.
While this matchup is in a more pitcher-friendly park in Miami, you have to love the spot with how Stowers already homered against Brown, along with the struggles against left-handed hitters.
I love the price at (+600) odds at DraftKings, as it highlights how the market isn't fully believing in Stowers yet. But that should change soon, as this is a hitter with an elite 22.3% barrel rate, which ranks in the 99th percentile.
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