5 Boom or Bust Fantasy Football Players to Target and Draft (2025)

Kyle McCarthy's fantasy football boom or bust players. Top sleepers to target in 2025 drafts: J.J. McCarthy, Kenneth Walker III, Bhayshul Tuten, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jonny Smith.

As the NFL Draft fades into the rearview and the offseason heats up, depth charts begin to solidify, giving us a clearer picture of how teams are shaping up. With that in mind, let’s dive into five players who land squarely in the boom-or-bust category for fantasy football in 2025.

 A boom-or-bust type of player shouldn't necessarily be viewed as a negative, as context must be factored in. The construction of the entirety of your roster informs whether or not this style of player could be a fit. Players with a lower floor but high ceiling can single-handedly win you weeks sometimes.

While you shouldn't fully load up on them, upside ultimately wins championships. Getting a good mix of this group with other more projectable players is generally a sound idea. We'll be looking at one QB, two RBs, two WRs, and one TE at varying price points. Now, let's get to the players.

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J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Underdog ADP: 133.2, QB20

J.J. McCarthy is walking into one of the most favorable ecosystems a QB could ask for. With a dynamic pass-catching trio of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, and Coach of the Year Kevin O'Connell calling the shots, it is quite the setup for fantasy success.

Since O’Connell took over in 2022, every quarterback he's worked with has delivered strong fantasy production. Kirk Cousins ranked top eight in fantasy points per game in 2023 before his injury and finished top 12 in 2022. In 2024, Sam Darnold revitalized his career under O’Connell, turning in a surprising top-10 fantasy season.

Now, the Vikings hand the reins to athletic top-10 draft pick J.J. McCarthy, an exciting talent with a live arm. His new tight end, Hockenson, has already raved about the zip McCarthy puts on the ball, even comparing it to what he saw from Matthew Stafford during their time together in Detroit.

#Vikings TE TJ Hockenson says JJ McCarthy’s throws remind him of Matt Stafford’s:

“I remember catching passes from Staff (Matt Stafford)… it zips on you, looks like it’s not coming, but it’s coming. JJ has the juice behind it where it kind of has that effect.”

🎥: @greenlight… pic.twitter.com/zHvJxmdopD

— VikingzFanPage (@vikingzfanpage) May 6, 2025

McCarthy differs from the Cousins and Darnold mold in that he is a superior athlete with some semblance of rushing production in college. While it wasn't a ton at a career 15 rushing yards per game, paired with his passing efficiency in college, it resembles a cohort of current NFL QBs who have had productive fantasy campaigns. These are the seven QBs selected in the first round with these numbers in a season of college since 2010:

• At least 9.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt
• Between 10 and 20 rushing yards per game

Physically, McCarthy profiles similarly to Bo Nix, who proved to be one of the late-round QB gems in fantasy last season. While McCarthy's passing efficiency doesn't rival Nix's here, it's important to note McCarthy was a 21-year-old junior compared to Nix as a 24-year-old fifth-year senior. 

Continuing with that comparison, Nix was a consistently more productive rusher in other collegiate seasons and leveled up in the NFL, with 25 yards per game. With McCarthy returning from a torn meniscus, we shouldn't expect an absurd amount of rushing production immediately.

But for what it's worth, the new Vikings signal-caller has already expressed how healthy he feels at the moment. As he progresses back and continues to feel better, it could become an underrated piece to his fantasy upside. The Vikings made it a focus to fortify the offensive line as well, selecting guard Donovan Jackson with their first-round pick. That, combined with the allure of O'Connell scheming up plays and one of the most dynamic weapon groups in the league, there is a legit boom case for McCarthy in 2025.

The bust case is fairly clear as well, as there is just a lot of uncertainty. What will the pass volume look like? One would expect it to remain fairly high as the Vikings are paying Jefferson and Hockenson a lofty sum. But what if the Jackson pick and trade for Jordan Mason signals that they want to become more run-focused? Historically, O'Connell has been a bit more pass-heavy in neutral situations, with the sixth-highest early down pass frequency and a 3% Pass Rate Over Expected on all plays since 2022, per RBSDM.com. 

Of course, there is also just the question of whether McCarthy will be competent or not. It's tricky when also factoring in the injury on top of the difficulty of projecting how QBs will transition to the NFL. However, it all comes back to the cost, and at his current cost of QB20, this is a gamble well worth taking.

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Underdog ADP: 62, RB19

Kenneth Walker III is one of the most dynamic runners in football. His style of running, however, is perhaps the definition of boom or bust. With the new coaching staff in Seattle last season, it made the affinity for Walker clear during the offseason. There was also uncertainty on how the touches would be distributed with fellow second-round RB Zach Charbonnet in the mix. But it was clear who the lead dog was.

In Weeks 1-7 last season, Walker was the RB2 in PPR points per game (22.3). While he did miss Weeks 2-3, he was getting fed a healthy number of opportunities with an average of 19 rushes + targets per game. His involvement in the receiving game was especially noteworthy as he averaged less than two receptions per game in his first two seasons in the NFL. That number rose to over four here in his third season, which is massively important for running backs in today's fantasy landscape.

However, through the rest of the season, Walker fell off to RB26 on a per-game basis, averaging 11.7 PPR points per game. Injuries struck the 24-year-old once again, and his inefficiency as a runner plagued him.

A solid indicator of possessing a boom-or-bust running style is looking at the difference between his Explosive Run% and his Tackle For Loss%. Last season, he had the fifth-worst mark in this area among running backs (min. 100 rushes). And this has been a theme since entering the league in 2022, as he is consistently explosive, but also consistently tries to bounce it to the outside and loses yardage.

Similar names around him include some of the most inefficient runners in the league last season, like Javonte Williams and D'Andre Swift. Of course, Walker isn't deserving of all the blame, as the Seattle offensive line has consistently been poor in the run-blocking department by ESPN's Run Block Win Rate metric (RBWR). But he has posted better marks with similar caliber offensive lines.

On a positive note, former New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator and Kyle Shanahan disciple Klint Kubiak takes the reins as the OC in Seattle. Factor in the upgrades on the offensive line and better health from the starters last season, and it could be an average offensive line or better. Walker is still an immensely talented back, and with the right scheme and offensive environment, he could prove to be a major value.

Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Underdog ADP: 125.2, RB30

Fourth-round pick Bhayshul Tuten finds himself in an ideal landing spot. The explosive back joins forces with former Buccaneers offensive coordinator and new Jaguars head coach Liam Coen, who orchestrated a highly effective ground game in his lone season with Tampa Bay, powered in part by fellow fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving.

For years, Tampa Bay's rushing attack struggled with inefficiency despite a strong offensive line on paper, largely due to Rachaad White’s limitations. Under Coen, however, the Buccaneers ranked sixth in the NFL in Rush EPA.

Unlike Irving, Tuten is an elite athlete. His burst and explosiveness resemble Lions star Jahmyr Gibbs in some ways, with their 10-yard splits being comparable (1.51 for Gibbs). He is, however, a tad undersized, but he has a stout build and runs with a low center of gravity.

The 22-year-old's rushing profile combines the home-run ability that you crave at the running back position in fantasy with forcing missed tackles. In addition, there is some real juice in the passing game. There are some similarities to Aaron Jones as well. Physically similar athletes, and both were Day 3 selections.

In today's age of running backs in the NFL, the workhorses are few and far between. But you do want to see which players were capable of handling the load in college.

A great example of this is last season's breakout, Chase Brown, who averaged nearly 30 touches per game during his last season at Illinois. Tuten didn't receive nearly that many, but it was a respectable workload at roughly 18 touches per game combined with strong efficiency at over 6.0 yards per rush.

Running Back draft class career production pic.twitter.com/2HPoYrbOvE

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) May 8, 2025

 

Running back marathon on day two pic.twitter.com/UpryabaYuY

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) March 25, 2025

Bhayshul Tuten is elusive all around but was notably productive up the middle at VT pic.twitter.com/Urax9F1lfV

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) May 14, 2025

On the surface, Tuten’s path to immediate touches appears murky with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby already in the backfield. However, reports suggest that the new Jaguars regime may not be especially high on Etienne, which could open the door sooner than expected.

It’s worth noting that Tuten struggled with ball security at Virginia Tech, fumbling nine times over his last two seasons. Still, the upside is clear. If he can earn a role early and gain the trust of the coaching staff, his explosiveness makes him a compelling bet.

While no comparison is perfect, De'Von Achane entered his rookie season in a similarly crowded backfield and went on to produce one of the most efficient rookie campaigns in recent memory.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Underdog ADP: 38.2, WR22

It's not a huge surprise that one of the fastest players in the NFL finds his way onto a boom-or-bust list. Worthy surged down the stretch of last season, averaging 21 PPR points per game in Weeks 15-17. His price early in the offseason could be a bit rich for some people, but it is reflective of his upside.

Unsurprisingly, this stretch coincided with the highest volume of opportunities he received all season, both in rushes and targets. HC Andy Reid made a concerted effort to involve him more with designed touches and low aDOT targets rather than using him primarily as a clear-out option earlier in the year.

The best receivers in the league combine the ability to earn deep targets with the skill to generate yards after the catch. While deep targets are highly valuable and often lead to touchdowns, they are also volatile and difficult to depend on.

That is why the ability to win off the line and create easy separation is so important, as it allows a receiver to generate production even when the deep ball is not there. Either you can consistently get open on your own, or you are trusted enough to be the focal point of a play designed specifically to create yards after the catch. Due to Worthy's size, he likely falls in the latter category.

Of course, his late-season surge came while Rashee Rice was sidelined. Rice thrived in that low aDOT, YAC-focused role and was one of the top fantasy wide receivers before his injury. As a result, we did not get a clear look at how their roles would coexist when both were healthy, leaving some uncertainty heading into the new season.

However, for what it's worth, ESPN's Mike Clay's projection for Worthy is bullish and suggests he could be a value at his current draft cost. 

Updated 2025 Chiefs projections

Rebound for Pacheco?
Too many mouths to feed at WR?
One more TE1 year for Kelce? pic.twitter.com/pm3G0w4QvT

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) May 9, 2025

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Underdog ADP: 73.2, WR39

There were plenty of circumstances that led to a largely unproductive season on the whole for Pearsall. The depth of the weapon group in San Francisco made it unlikely for him to be a big-time contributor initially. But it seemed this selection was more about the future, with Deebo Samuel Sr. expectedly on his way out after last season. The 24-year-old did have a nice final two games of the season with 14 catches for 210 yards and two touchdowns.

Pearsall is an elite athlete (9.91 RAS) who operated more as a threat down the field with an aDOT of 11.48. On a per-route basis, he wasn't overly efficient, but not terrible with a 1.54 YPPR. Similarly, his TPRR was decent at 18%. For comparison, that target earning rate at that average depth of target was in a similar range to other young wide receivers in Jalen McMillan (12.14 aDOT, 16% TPRR) and Jalen Tolbert (11.47 aDOT, 16% TPRR).

As a fifth-year prospect, Pearsall's production profile had some warning signs. Combined with an underwhelming rookie season production-wise, there is a decent bust case. But some of that can certainly be attributed to the recovery from the gunshot incident late in the offseason.

1st Round WRs to not hit 2+ Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt in their 1st 3 years of college:

*Xavier Legette
*Kadarius Toney
*John Ross
*Matthew Golden
*Ricky Pearsall
*Henry Ruggs

(since 2017) pic.twitter.com/BJH4oNH9Ae

— Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_) April 30, 2025

Although Samuel did get traded, the 49ers offense still has plenty of talented mouths to feed. Factor in the emergence of Jauan Jennings, who looked like a true breakout last season, and it is still tough to distribute all the opportunities in this offense. It could also just look quite different from previous iterations of Shanahan's offenses as he reduced his use of play action in 2024. 

In 6 games with Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, and Brock Purdy on the field together:

Pearsall: 9.6 FPG / 17.6% first-read target share

Kittle: 14.2 FPG / 19.8% first-read target share

Jennings: 13.5 FPG / 31.3% first-read target share

Seems pretty simple!

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) March 26, 2025

While seemingly everything went poorly for San Francisco last season, it still finished with the 11th-best offense in the league by EPA/Play. It would be unrealistic to expect it to reach near its historic 2023 level, but with better health luck, it's not unrealistic for it to ascend back to an elite offense.

Pearsall could emerge and overtake more primacy in the offense now that he is fully healthy. We will ultimately see how the pecking order shapes up.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins

Underdog ADP: 97, TE6

 Jonnu Smith had a career year across the board in his age-29 season with the Dolphins. It was an impressive campaign for Smith as he proved to be the breakout TE of 2024. Smith has always been an athletic freak and YAC monster at the TE position. However, given that this performance stands out as an outlier compared to the rest of his career, it is fair to ask whether some skepticism is warranted.

Factoring in the team context, the Dolphins had a relatively quiet offseason on the offensive front. And Smith was one of the most efficient pass-catchers on a per-route basis last season. Head coach Mike McDaniel looks like the right guy to optimize his skill set and use his strong ability after the catch as a big piece of their offense.

Successful target per route run among NFL players with 300 or more routes in 2024, per @TruMediaSports. pic.twitter.com/Q39QflcYDV

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) April 3, 2025

Part of Smith’s breakout can be attributed to a down year from both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who battled injuries throughout the season. That likely opened the door for increased opportunity, and Smith made the most of it. He proved to be a major value for fantasy managers who waited at the tight-end position, finishing as the TE2 in PPR points per game from Week 10 onward with an impressive per-game average of 17.2. His efficiency metrics were equally strong, posting a 27% TPRR and 2.14 YPRR, nearly identical to star rookie Brock Bowers' 27% and 2.12, respectively. The big question heading into 2025 is whether Smith can sustain that level of production as he enters his age-30 season in a healthy Dolphins offense that returns most of its core pieces.

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