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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 5/16/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
We've got a full slate of games on Friday, so it's time to bring you my best NRFI bets today and bonus bets. Today, I've got four NRFI picks for you, ranging from -105 to -145 odds.
There are a few intriguing spots for scoreless first innings today. We've got a projected pitcher's duel in the Bronx between Tylor Megill and Carlos Rodon, Bowden Francis looks to build off his strong outing in Toronto, Cole Ragans tries to keep the good times rolling, and Logan Webb is in a great spot at home against the Athletics.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Friday, May 16, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are wagers where you try to determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
The more popular wager is NRFI because it's more enjoyable to cheer for a shutout in the first inning. Whenever I take a YRFI, it's a stressful sweat that always feels like it'll end up as a loss. Quite frankly, if you go with YRFI, I suggest not watching the game.
The best part of NRFI bets is how they settle within minutes. This is a fun and quick sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling. Just remember to only go with a smaller portion of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning at times.
Best First Inning Bets Today (May 16, 2025)
- New York Mets at New York Yankees: 7:05 pm
- Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays: 7:07 pm
- St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals: 7:40 pm
- Athletics at San Francisco Giants: 10:15 pm
New York Mets at New York Yankees NRFI (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- NYM: Tylor Megill
- NYY: Carlos Rodon
Megill is having a breakout season, putting up a 3.10 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 17 walks and 52 strikeouts in 40.2 innings. We've seen the Mets' righty increase his strikeout rate from 27.0% to 29.5% this year. The surface stats are backed by advanced metrics as well, as highlighted by a 3.37 SIERA.
We've seen Megill perform well in the first inning, holding opponents to zero runs in seven of eight starts this season.
Tylor Megill, Dirty 84mph Slider. 😨
9th K pic.twitter.com/KmfNOk4LYE
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 27, 2025
The Yankees counter with Rodon, who looks back to top form this year, registering a 3.29 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with a 31.2% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate in 54.2 innings. The veteran lefty also looks good under the hood, featuring an impressive 3.17 SIERA.
Like Megill, Rodon has a terrific 7-2 record vs. the NRFI this season.
What's great about this play is we're getting an appealing price at (-105) odds. I know we have to deal with Aaron Judge, who is having another phenomenal season, but I'm willing to take the shot considering each of these pitchers' performances this season.
Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays NRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- DET: Jack Flaherty
- TOR: Bowden Francis
Flaherty recently hit a rough patch, allowing at least four earned runs in three consecutive outings. This has inflated the veteran righty's ERA to 4.61. But if we dive deeper, we see that Flaherty deserves better results. His 3.28 SIERA is much better than his 4.61 ERA, so perhaps we can see him right the ship starting with this outing.
The good news is that Flaherty has a good NRFI record at 7-1 this season, so even with his struggles, he's getting it done in the opening frame.
Jack Flaherty's 7th K thru 3. pic.twitter.com/Rfc1LdDMbj
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 9, 2025
Like Flaherty, Francis has had a disappointing first half of the season, including a 5.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 11 walks and 30 strikeouts in 41.2 innings. But we saw Francis get back on track in his last outing, where he tossed 6.2 innings of three-run ball against the Mariners.
What's good about targeting the NRFI with Francis on the mound is that he's shut out opponents in the first inning in seven of eight starts this season.
While we have to pay a bit of tax at (-125) odds in this pick, I'm willing to dive in due to each of these pitchers' NRFI records.
St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- STL: Andre Pallante
- KC: Cole Ragans
Pallante isn't exactly an exciting pitcher, featuring a 4.36 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with 16 walks and 28 strikeouts in 43.1 innings. But one thing he is excellent at is inducing groundballs, as highlighted by a 65.0 GB%.
The Cardinals' righty does a great job keeping opponents at bay in the opening frame, featuring a 7-1 NRFI record.
However, the main draw of this play is Ragans. Despite a bloated 4.20 ERA, Ragans deserves better this year, as highlighted by an elite 2.33 SIERA. The Royals' lefty has been terrific at racking up strikeouts, including a 38.0 K%.
Cole Ragans, Wicked Sliders. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/owQ77MlZYE
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 9, 2025
What's also great about Ragans in this play is how he's shut out opponents in the first inning in six of eight starts this season.
With that in mind, let's take a shot at Cardinals vs Royals NRFI with a groundball pitcher and AL Cy Young candidate.
Athletics at San Francisco Giants NRFI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- ATH: JP Sears
- SF: Logan Webb
The last NRFI on my Friday betting card starts with Sears on the mound for the Athletics. The crafty lefty has given up two earned runs or fewer in five consecutive outings. Now he can take on the Giants in a pitcher-friendly environment at Oracle Park.
What's also good about Sears is his 8-0 NRFI record. We simply have to ride with a trend like that.
But what's even better is that Webb is on the mound for the Giants. The veteran righty has a 2.60 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 14 walks and 65 strikeouts in 55.1 innings. This is backed by advanced metrics, as highlighted by a 2.70 SIERA.
Logan Webb, Painted 93mph Back Door Sinker. 🖌️🎨
6th K thru 3 pic.twitter.com/H0qyGv1FC4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 19, 2025
Like with Sears, Webb has done a good job with the NRFI this season, keeping opponents off the scoreboard in six of nine outings. Look for Webb to turn in a quality outing in a great spot at home vs. the A's.
Even at (-145) odds, I'll take a shot here because of Sears' undefeated NRFI record and Webb's dominance this season.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Yankees (10-0)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Dodgers (6)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Diamondbacks, Rangers (4)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Padres (.396)
Conclusion: Best MLB NRFI Bets Today (May 16, 2025)
As we head into a full Friday slate of games, today's MLB NRFI bets offer plenty of value with strong pitching matchups and favorable trends. From a Bronx showdown between Megill and Rodon to Webb's dominance at home, there are several sharp spots to back a scoreless first inning.
Whether you're targeting pitchers with elite strikeout rates or teams on extended NRFI streaks, this slate has something for every bettor looking for that quick six-out sweat.
Be sure to monitor starting lineups and weather before locking anything in, but don’t wait too long—some of these NRFI odds could shift as the public piles in. With pitchers like Sears, Webb, and Ragans leading the charge, there’s no shortage of solid edges on the board.
Good luck with your MLB NRFI bets, and as always, bet responsibly!
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