RADIO
Corbin Young examines several fantasy baseball pitcher risers and sleepers displaying changes in their pitch mix, movement, and velocity heading into Week 8 (2025).
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly "Starting Pitcher Arsenal Changes" article series for Week 8 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. We researched 21 starting pitchers so far, with three more in this column, one of which used to be an elite ace. Today's article will discuss a few starting pitchers who made actionable adjustments, like a release point change or a new pitch, location changes, and whether they matter moving forward.
For those new to this column, we cover a few starting pitchers and their arsenal changes via pitch mix, velocity, and movement each week. Since it's early, we're looking for new pitches, velocity, and movement changes. When we find significant release point shifts, it can potentially impact their movement profiles in 2025.
Pitchers can make notable changes in smaller samples, so let's see if we can find something with these starting pitchers. Statcast introduced pitch percentage splits by left- or right-handed batters, which adds a nice layer to compare quickly to past seasons. Let's look through my process of examining starting pitchers and their arsenals. Reach out to me on X if you have a pitcher and have questions about it. Thank you for reading!
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Ronel Blanco is Throwing His Four-Seam Less Often in the Zone
Blanco logged a career-best 11 strikeouts against the Reds by pumping sliders for whiffs. He threw his slider in the zone 53 percent of the time, eliciting a 22.5 percent SwK on Sunday. In the early 2025 sample, Blanco has been throwing his slider more often in the zone (50 percent). He threw more sliders in the zone and started throwing fewer four-seamers in the strike zone.
Interestingly, Blanco's four-seam zone rate was a ridiculously low 28 percent on Sunday, May 11. His four-seam zone rate fell from 53.7 percent (2024) to 45.3 percent (2025). So why would he make that change? Blanco's four-seamer was crushed when he threw it in the zone in 2024, with a .382 wOBA (.420 xwOBA). However, Blanco's results against his four-seamers in the zone improved in 2025 (.294 wOBA, .275 xwOBA).
Blanco's four-seam locations have changed slightly in 2025. He has been cutting the four-seam slightly, around a half-inch, which was evident in the 2025 heat maps. Blanco's four-seamer had better results when he located it in the upper corners of the zone, with his high-end levels of induced vertical break (IVB).
That's noteworthy because Blanco's elite extension of nearly seven feet pairs well with the four-seam IVB, coming from a six-foot release point, over an inch lower than in 2024.
Blanco is Throwing More Curveballs, But Do They Matter?
Blanco is throwing more curveballs, increasing 9-12 percentage points from 2024 to either side of the plate. His curveball was effective against right-handed hitters in 2024 (.046 wOBA, .161 xwOBA), which he threw only 6 percent of the time. Blanco increased the curveball usage to righties, throwing it 18.7 percent in 2025, and it maintained its success (.158 wOBA, .129 xwOBA).
Besides the batted ball results against right-handed hitters, his curveball generated an 18.4 percent SwK in 2025. For context, Blanco's curveball had a 1.3 percent SwK versus right-handed hitters before this season. So why the change and improvement?
The curveball's downward movement hasn't changed, but he added an inch of glove-side sweep. Since the movement profile hasn't shifted significantly, one would speculate on his curveball locations in 2025.
Blanco has been throwing his curveball toward the outside corner in 2025 versus right-handed hitters. The curveball heatmaps from 2024 were similar against right-handed hitters, but the main difference involves it generating weak contact and whiffs.
Summary
The market didn't push up Blanco in drafts after the ratio regression was expected. However, it's rare to have a pitcher elicit above-average swinging strike rates who was productive in the previous season. Blanco changed his approach by throwing his slider more in the zone with fewer heaters in the strike zone. The curveball location is better, giving him an additional pitch to attack same-handed hitters.
Though we didn't discuss Blanco's changeup, it elicits an above-average SwK at 18.9 percent, and the results have been good against lefties (.215 wOBA, .218 xwOBA). The pitch usage change against right- and left-handed hitters might be the most actionable in 2025.
Clay Holmes' Different Approach Against Left-Handed Hitters
Holmes threw sinkers 63 percent of the time to left-handed hitters in 2024. However, he lowered the sinker usage to 31.6 percent in 2025. The sinker wasn't effective in 2024 (.382 wOBA, .368 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters. Unfortunately, the results against Holmes' sinker have been similarly poor (.392 wOBA, .355 xwOBA).
Holmes traded fewer sinkers for more changeups and cutters. The changeup was the highlight of spring training, and we'll cover it later. His cutter has somewhat of a gyro slider shape, with below-average vertical movement and nearly zero horizontal break. Unsurprisingly, Holmes' cutter might be something he wants to ditch since it doesn't generate whiffs (3 percent swinging strike rate) or have quality batted ball results (.308 wOBA, .346 xwOBA).
Holmes' sinker added two inches of downward movement in 2025, though it's similar to 2023. The sinker locations changed slightly, with it being more on the inside corner for right-handed hitters instead of low in the zone.
That might explain the sinker generating fewer groundballs (65.3 percent) in 2025 than his career average (72.3 percent). Theoretically, Holmes could fix his sinker locations to be lower in the zone again, or it's a concerted effort as he transitioned into a starting pitcher.
Holmes' New Changeup is Stealing Whiffs From the Slider
The new changeup or the "kick change" was one of his GIF-worthy options in spring training. That led to the market bumping Holmes up draft boards, thinking he could take a Michael King-type leap. Holmes' new changeup (.172 wOBA, .214 xwOBA) is his best pitch versus left-handed hitters, as his second-most-used offering.
Though his slider (.153 wOBA, .255 xwOBA) and sweeper (.137 wOBA, .169 xwOBA) were effective against left-handed hitters in 2024, Holmes hasn't had any pitch that goes toward his arm side besides the sinker. When the changeup is cooking, it generates above-average downward movement and 14-15 inches of arm-side fade.
Holmes' changeup swinging strike rate (SwK) aligned with the downward movement by eliciting 20.7 percent SwK in 2025. His slider used to lead his arsenal for whiffs, evidenced by his 17.8 percent SwK in 2024 and 17 percent in his career. However, Holmes' slider fell to one of his worst SwK at 7.7 percent.
That's interesting because Holmes' slider maintained the downward movement from previous seasons. Meanwhile, his slider velocity is around 2-3 mph slower than in previous seasons. That makes us wonder why his slider hasn't elicited the same swings and misses.
Holmes' slider results against right-handed hitters have been solid, given his .206 wOBA (.249 xwOBA). His sweeper has also been effective against righties, with a .198 wOBA (.242 xwOBA). Since the slider and sweeper locations look relatively similar to previous seasons, maybe the whiffs return, mainly against right-handed hitters.
Summary
It's been a mixed bag with Holmes because the results have been solid, though the 9 percent SwK doesn't inspire confidence. His skills look relatively stable, with an xERA (3.38) close to his actual ERA (2.74) and a 15 percent strikeout minus walk rate, similar to his career average (14 percent). The new changeup has been a positive addition to his arsenal, though we hope the slider and sweeper whiffs return to attack same-handed hitters.
Jacob deGrom's Lower Arm Angle
Jacob deGrom has been using a lower arm angle (30 degrees). That's mainly from his vertical release point dropping over two inches (2.4) while maintaining the horizontal release. For context, deGrom's arm angle fell 3 degrees from 2024 (34 degrees) and 7 degrees from 2023 (37 degrees). Theoretically, that leads to movement profile differences on his pitches.
Besides the arm angle changes, deGrom discussed scaling back the velocity on his pitches. That's been evident by his pitch-level velocities dropping by 1-2 mph versus 2023 and previous seasons. When pitch velocity drops, the movement typically changes, too.
That's mostly been evident with his slider and changeup dropping more often in 2025. deGrom's slider added 3-5 inches of downward movement from recent seasons, though it only added 1-2 inches for the glove-side sweep.
Theoretically, we might anticipate deGrom's slider to elicit more whiffs with more downward movement. However, deGrom's slider SwK fell to 17.9 percent in 2025. We've seen his slider peak at 26.9 percent SwK (2023) and 31.7 percent SwK (2022), though his career average sat at 18.8 percent.
Since deGrom's slider movement profile hasn't changed and the results looked solid, we might expect the whiffs to return. deGrom's slider allows a .225 wOBA (.228 xwOBA) versus righties and .192 wOBA (.244 xwOBA) against lefties in 2025.
deGrom's Changeup is Dropping More
The changeup is dropping 3-4 inches more often in 2025 than in recent seasons. Though the changeup doesn't have an above-average movement profile, it elicits a juicy 19.7 percent SwK in 2025. deGrom mainly uses it against left-handed hitters as his third-most-used pitch. His changeup generates an 83.3 percent ground-ball rate, allowing a .310 wOBA (.313 xwOBA).
Given deGrom's changeup movement profile and SwK, it suggests it can miss bats and generate weak contact, though not at near-elite levels. He locates the changeup down and away from left-handed hitters, making it his only pitch that dives toward his arm side and low or below the zone. That's different than the changeup locations from 2023-24.
Summary
Several underlying metrics for deGrom align with the career averages, though they may not be at the elite and outlier levels. The four-seam, slider, and changeup look solid, leading to consistent whiffs and weak contact to both sides of the plate. This newer version of deGrom looks sustainable with the slightly lower velocity and arm angle change.
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