RADIO
We have officially hit the part of the schedule where all eyes are turned toward Augusta National and the Masters Tournament, but first, we have a short run in Texas. This week, the PGA Tour headed to Houston, Texas, for the Texas Children's Houston Open. Moving day was a crazy one, as Min Woo Lee took control of the tournament with a four-shot lead going into the final round.
Statistics are a mixed bag for pointing towards success over the first three days. However, the outlying metrics that shine at the top of this leaderboard are strokes gained off the tee and putting. Of the top 13 players on the leaderboard, eight are inside the top 20 in strokes gained off the tee, and 11 rank inside the top 20 in strokes gained putting. As the weather continues to play a factor, the statistical considerations have changed from what we thought coming into the week.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Mother Nature has affected this event all week, and its presence will be felt again on Sunday. The main takeaway is the need for extra driving distance as conditions get softer on this 7,400-yard layout. In the third round, 11 of the top 15 rounds of the day came from guys inside the top 20 on the day in driving distance.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Min Woo Lee has finally taken center stage in a big-time tournament, and he's doing it impressively. The Australian was on fire Saturday, as he recorded seven birdies and zero bogeys to take a commanding lead over a rather stacked field behind him. It was a well-rounded day, as he led the field in driving distance (325 yards) and was fourth in strokes gained around the green (+1.80) and eighth in strokes gained on approach (+1.51).
Given the current scope of his position heading into tomorrow, the 26-year-old is undoubtedly in the driver's seat to get his first career PGA Tour victory.
Other Options: Scottie Scheffler
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Wyndham Clark becomes a more intriguing face as conditions get softer and more reliant on the driver. However, his irons and putter made the most difference on Saturday as the 31-year-old gained +2.19 strokes putting and +1.72 strokes on approach.
If he is forced to play in windy conditions, he'll need to rely more on his underrated short game and driving prowess. But, that problem could be easily avoided with storms in the mix.
Wyndham Clark finishes with a birdie for an opening 67 and the lead by two. 🎯🔥
📺 Golf Channel | @APInv pic.twitter.com/1MIKwfnn78
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 6, 2025
Other Options: Davis Thompson, Stephan Jaeger
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Jake Knapp is having a stellar week that only continues to improve as the rounds pile up, with scores of 68-67-65 over the last three days. The 30-year-old ranks second on the week in driving distance (315.5) and averaging +1.12 in strokes gained putting and +1.04 in strokes gained on approach.
This is a perfect venue for the sweet-swinging UCLA Bruin given his length and periods of hot runs with the flat stick. There is a lot he'll need to happen for a chance to win tomorrow, but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility.
Other Options: Thomas Detry, Kieth Mitchell, Kurt Kitayama
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Trey Mullinax is having a much-needed week at Memorial Park. The 32-year-old ranks second on the week in strokes gained off the tee (+1.05) and 10th in strokes gained putting (+1.43). He's only recorded two top 20s in his last 10 professional starts and is 118th in the FedEx Cup points list.
He easily hits it far enough to keep pace should things get even more wet and soft, and as long as his comfortableness on the greens hangs around, he should be able to produce a nice finish tomorrow.
when I say I'm getting the bag, I mean Trey Mullinax’s golf bag pic.twitter.com/wOY2AFd5Mm
— Mountain Dew® (@MountainDew) March 29, 2025
Other Options: Isaiah Salinda, Gary Woodland, Harris English
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Aside from a back-and-forth second round, Hayden Springer has performed nicely this week in most areas of his game, ranking 14th in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+0.65) and tee to green (+1.47), and 16th in driving distance (306.5 yards). Putting comes and goes for many players, but he'll need to avoid the pitfall of whatever caused him to lose -2.21 on the greens during Friday's round, as everything else looks good enough for the 28-year-old to make a push for a top 10.
Other Options: Sami Valimaki, Jesper Svensson
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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