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Conference clashes persist as college basketball is in full swing. Read how Nick breaks down the matchup between Albany and Bryant, and finds a bet worth taking.
There's no better time to sweat college hoops in the dead of winter than by tuning into the leaders of one of this nation's great conferences, the America East.
Bryant looks to extend its conference win streak to nine games while Albany tries to inch toward the .500 mark in AE play.
Let's dive into this matchup and a bet I placed last night.
Albany at Bryant (-10, -110) at 6:00 p.m. EST, Chace Athletic Center, R.I.
Let's start with the Bryant Bulldogs. So far in America East play, they've demolished inferior opponents, winning all but one game by double digits, including a 10-point victory at Albany in January. The current conference player of the year, Earl Timberlake, is surrounded by plenty of wing length and athleticism.
The only players in the country averaging 16p/8r/4a per game
Cooper Flagg
Yaxel Lendeborg
Brooks Barnhizer
Earl TimberlakeFour incredibly unique players pic.twitter.com/QFfzYVBeEF
— Sam Federman (@Sam_Federman) January 21, 2025
Rightfully so, head coach Phil Martelli Jr. uses this versatility to push the pace at the sixth-highest rate nationally. Albeit an average jump-shooting team, the America East is not filled with interior defenders, allowing the Bulldogs to viciously score in the paint. They also attack the glass and hardly turn the ball over. This leads to efficient possessions and plenty of offensive output. Their tempo gets them in trouble against superior competition, but more on that in March.
Now, let's take a look at the Albany Great Danes. A 3-5 conference record from a team that thrives in the turnover department and on the offensive glass. Generally, those are my two favorite attributes when digging into matchups. However, as previously mentioned, Bryant rarely turns the ball over and is the best rebounding team in the conference.
While the Great Danes have those two positive qualities, there is one very glaring weakness in their profile. Dwayne Killings' team is 348th nationally in two-point percentage defense and ranks worst in the America East. Couple that with being the 355th-tallest team, according to KenPom, and Bryant should score at the rim at will.
Aside from the four factors, big underdogs like Albany generally prefer lower-scoring, high-variance games. Albany is 128th in tempo and has been happy to comply with teams like Bryant and UMBC's willingness to get out in transition. On top of that, it is also one of the worst teams nationally at shooting the three-ball.
As long as Bryant can take care of the ball, I foresee a double-digit victory here. I played Bryant -10 and would be comfortable playing that number up to -12.
For all of my picks, follow me on X @Roddy_PhD, and best of luck if you tail!
