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Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Lions vs. 49ers MNF Showdown slate Week 17 (Dec. 30, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an NFC showdown tonight as Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (13-2) head west to take on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers (6-9). While the 49ers' season is mathematically over, the Lions still compete to secure the NFC North crown and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Let’s see how this plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Lions vs. 49ers MNF DFS showdown slate on December 30. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller Premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, $17.4K (DK), $15K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 209 rushing attempts, 1,156 rushing yards, 54 targets, 43 receptions, 440 receiving yards, 15 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 13.41%
I’ll start this slate off with Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs saw the increase in touches expected last week in the absence of his running mate, David Montgomery. Ultimately, Gibbs touched the ball 27 times for 154 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. He’ll now take on San Francisco’s 24th-ranked rushing defense in terms of DVOA, and look to build on last week’s strong performance.
The Detroit Lions haven’t had a season with two 1,000 yard receivers (Herman Moore & Johnnie Morton) and a 1,000 yard rusher (Barry Sanders) since 1997.
Amon Ra St. Brown (1,126 yards), Jameson Williams (890 yards) and Jahmyr Gibbs (1,156 yards) are on the verge of history 👀 pic.twitter.com/Dgx4GdCksF
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) December 28, 2024
My model projects Gibbs to run the ball 18.3 times for 92.92 yards while catching four of 5.53 targets for 29.36 yards and 1.05 total touchdowns.
Deebo Samuel Sr. - WR, $11.4K (DK), $10K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 39 rushing attempts, 120 rushing yards, 80 targets, 50 receptions, 665 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. WR2: 2.3%
We’ll flip the field and take a look at Deebo Samuel next. Deebo had his best game of the season in Week 16, catching seven of nine targets for 96 yards and a touchdown while adding another 25 yards on five rushing attempts in the ground game. Running back Isaac Guerendo does not carry an injury designation into this matchup, but practiced in limited fashion on Thursday and Friday. I anticipate Deebo will see some touches out of the backfield once again.
Deebo Samuel refused to go down! TD @49ers!
📺: #SFvsMIA on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/L98aKdpiyD— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
My model projects him to run the ball 3.68 times for 18.33 yards and catch 5.3 of 7.17 targets for 68.45 yards and 0.42 total touchdowns in this one.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jameson Williams, Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jauan Jennings - WR, $7.8K (DK), $11K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 93 targets, 63 receptions, 856 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. WR1: -8.9%
I’ll stay within the 49ers receiver room with my first flex play in this showdown, Jauan Jennings. Nobody will argue that this was a disappointing season for Kyle Shanahan’s group, but one shining spot in this offense has been Jennings. The 27-year-old receiver has posted career highs in each category and will look to take advantage of this banged-up Lions secondary here.
My model projects Jennings to catch 6.1 of 8.55 targets for 78.95 yards and 0.43 touchdowns tonight.
Jameson Williams - WR, $8K (DK), $11.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 75 targets, 47 receptions, 890 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. WR2: 11.2%
I’ll switch receiver rooms here and look at Jameson Williams next. Having been more or less a boom-or-bust kind of player, it’s been nice to see Williams take that next step forward this season. He’s coming off a monster game last week where he caught five of seven targets for 143 yards and a touchdown. I lean Williams over Amon-Ra St. Brown ever so slightly in this one, but rest assured I’ll have plenty of both in my lineups.
My model projects Williams to catch 4.01 of 6.91 targets for 62.71 yards and 0.41 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Isaac Guerendo
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Sam LaPorta - TE, $5.8K (DK), $9.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 68 targets, 47 receptions, 599 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: -1.1%
I’ll look at a pair of Lions in my value spots tonight, starting with Sam LaPorta. LaPorta has seen a nice increase in targets lately, seeing at least six in each of his last six games. He’s accumulated 25 receptions, 298 yards, and four touchdowns in that span. This isn’t necessarily a great matchup for LaPorta, as San Francisco ranks in the top 10 in all categories against the position, but at his price, LaPorta is tough to pass up.
My model projects LaPorta to catch 3.94 of 5.75 targets for 37.27 yards and 0.36 touchdowns in this one.
Craig Reynolds - RB, $3K (DK), $7.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 16 rushing attempts, 69 rushing yards, one target, one reception, five receiving yards.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 13.41%
I’ll wrap things up with Craig Reynolds. Reynolds was anticipated to step in as the second running back following the loss of David Montgomery. He did so last week but didn’t see the volume that one might expect, logging 18 yards on four carries while adding five receiving yards on one reception (one target).
Tonight, my model projects Reynolds to run the ball 5.5 times for 29.77 yards, adding 1.11 receptions on 1.26 targets for another 6.03 yards and 0.27 touchdowns.
Other Value Options: Lions D/ST, Ricky Pearsall, Tim Patrick, Jake Bates
Have a good week, everyone!
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