High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 6)

October 10, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 6 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series High-Value Touches and Opportunities for Week 6 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. 

With passing numbers down, we'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line, but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

If we asked which Falcons and Buccaneers running back had a rushing attempt inside the 10-yard line in Week 5, many would guess Bijan Robinson and Rachaad White. However, it's Bucky Irving with two and Tyler Allgeier with one. Irving, not White, accounted for 100 percent of the team's carries inside the five.

The gap between White and Irving seems to be shrinking, especially considering the underlying metrics. We reviewed things in the Week 4 column on the high-value touches and opportunities. However, let's revisit the numbers. Besides a slight edge in rush and target shares for White, Irving matches or bests him in the explosive and efficiency metrics.

Furthermore, Irving bests White in carries inside the 10-yard line, with six for Irving and four for White. The workload has been a closer split than expected to begin the season, with Irving's stock rising via the opportunities and high-value touches.

After being nearly dead for fantasy purposes, D'Andre Swift smacked us in the face and showed us we must pay attention. Swift had seven carries inside the 10 and scored one touchdown on those rushing attempts. He accounted for 67 percent of the team's rush attempts inside the 5-yard line in Week 5.

The visual below shows the Week 5 rushing leaders in carries inside the 10-yard line.

For context, Swift had one carry inside the 10 before Week 5, giving him eight in 2024, ranking tied for 10th among all running backs. That suggests the Bears haven't garnered many opportunities inside the 20-yard line and near the end zone.

The main issue with Swift hasn't been volume, especially considering he ranks 11th in expected points per game (EP/G), yet one of the worst fantasy points over expectation (FPOE/G) at -1.5 (No. 103). However, Swift has been inefficient as a rusher, ranking 45th in rush yards over expected at -1.14 out of 49 qualified running backs, per Next Gen Stats, in Weeks 1-4. Swift's rush yards over expected improved to -0.97 after his Week 5 performance.

The visual below shows the worst running backs sorted by rush yards over expected per attempt.

Swift ranked ahead of Trey Benson, Tyjae Spears, Gus Edwards, and De'Von Achane. Over the past two weeks, we've seen Swift explode from an efficiency perspective, with a slight volume increase. Swift had 23 opportunities in Weeks 4-5, compared to 15.7 (Weeks 1-3). It was partly matchup-related since the Bears faced the Rams and Panthers over the past two weeks.

Notable Backups

Trey Sermon stepped in for Jonathan Taylor, garnering four carries inside the 10-yard line, and scoring on one. Sermon had 100 percent of the team's carries inside the five. That's notable because the Colts gave Sermon high-value rush attempts, yet he wasn't efficient on his 10 carries for 38 yards against the Jaguars.

The other positive aspect of Sermon involves his six targets for a 13.3 percent target share in Week 5, with Tyler Goodson having three (6.7 percent).

Five running backs had at least a 50% rush share AND a 10% target share.

1) James Cook: 71.4% rush share & 10.3% target share
2) Chuba Hubbard: 68.4% rush share & 12.1% target share
3) Rhamondre Stevenson: 63.2% rush share & 13.3% target share
4) Dare Ogunbowale: 53.6% rush…

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 7, 2024

Blake Corum matched Kyren Williams with three rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line in Week 5. Williams scored on one of them while Corum didn't. Corum had five carries for a 17.9 percent rush share and hardly ate into the rushing workload for Williams at 78.6 percent. Though Corum hasn't been garnering touches on the level of Irving, Braelon Allen, and others, he should still be stashed in most formats.

It might be noisy but Eric Gray had three carries inside the 10 for the Giants compared to zero for Tyrone Tracy Jr. Unfortunately, Gray fumbled one of his three carries near the end zone, leading to a Seahawks fumble return touchdown.

Tracy handled most of the team's rush share at 52.9 percent compared to Gray at 11.8 percent. That's slightly below Devin Singletary's workload, with a 56.6 percent rush share, though they lacked the targets. That's evident in Singletary's 8.1 percent target share in Weeks 1-4, and Tracy at 4.8 percent.

Singletary boasts juicy underlying metrics, with a 23 percent rate of missed tackles forced (No. 21) and 3.07 yards after contact per attempt (No. 15). That said, with Tracy impressing as a rusher in Week 5 against the Seahawks, the Giants look like a better offense than expected. Stash Tracy, especially since he could eat into Singletary's workload when he returns. 

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

George Kittle led the league in Week 5 for targets inside the 10, scoring on one of them. We had a second 49ers receiver in Jauan Jennings with two or more high-value receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Besides Kittle and Jennings, Brandon Aiyuk had his breakout game of 2024, matching Kittle with 12 targets for an elite 34.3 percent target share.

The 49ers spread the ball around, with their main four pass-catchers hovering near each other in first-read target share. Deebo Samuel Sr. has a team-high first-read target share at 25.3 percent (No. 41), with Kittle (24.1 percent), Jennings (24 percent), and Aiyuk (22.1 percent). It's a potent passing offense that will fluctuate weekly on the boom performances.

Without Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert stepped up against the Steelers. Tolbert led the Cowboys in targets (10) and target share (23.8 percent) in Week 5. When watching the game, it felt like Dak Prescott looked toward Tolbert on his first reads. That's somewhat true with Tolbert having a 25 percent first-read target share, tying Ferguson, with CeeDee Lamb at 21.4 percent in Week 5.

Meanwhile, Tolbert was fourth in first-read target share at 14.2 percent on the Cowboys behind Cooks (16 percent), Ferguson (20 percent), and Lamb (25.5 percent) in Weeks 1-4. 

Jalen Tolbert had a 25% first-read target share, tying Jake Ferguson, with CeeDee Lamb at 21.4% in Week 5.

In Weeks 1-4, Tolbert was 4th on the team at 14.2% behind Brandin Cooks (16%), Ferguson (20%), & Lamb (25.5%)

The opportunity uptick led to Tolbert averaging more… pic.twitter.com/aYqz7O5iBG

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 8, 2024

Tolbert averaged 9.1 expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-4 compared to 19.2 in Week 5. That's partly due to the volume and opportunity uptick, with the high-value opportunities for Tolbert. Stock up for Tolbert, especially in deep leagues if he continues to be one of Prescott's trusted options behind Lamb and Ferguson.

According to the FantasyPoints Expected Fantasy Points Model, Garrett Wilson finished with a massive 45.7 expected fantasy points in Week 5. For context, Justin Jefferson (38.7) and Darnell Mooney (32.1) were the only other receivers with over 30 expected fantasy points in Week 5.

Aaron Rodgers had been spreading the ball, but he fed Wilson the ball for a whopping 22 targets. Wilson hit a career-high in targets, with the previous high of 17 in Week 18 of 2022. Hopefully, this isn't a one-week blip for Wilson because we'll take that elite volume.

The visual below shows the rolling RotoViz EP/G for Wilson painting a similar picture.

The Ravens might set a record for tight-end usage, with Charlie Kolar (one) and Isaiah Likely (two) accounting for three of Lamar Jackson's four passing touchdowns against the Bengals. Likely had two targets inside the 10-yard line with four in 2024, tying him for sixth with several pass-catchers.

For context, Likely averages 7.5 expected fantasy points per game compared to 10.4 PPR. That indicates Likely's volume is solid on a per-route basis (22 percent targets per route run), with efficiency in his favor. It's hard to predict when to use Likely after his Week 1 smash performance, with under 10 PPR points in Weeks 2-4. It's a boom-bust profile for Likely with touchdown upside.

The visual below shows the season-long receiving leaders inside the 10-yard line.

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

This section continues to uncover fun names, including Darnell Mooney, Colby Parkinson, Rashod Bateman, Darius Slayton, and Tolbert. All these pass-catchers had a 40 percent target share on third and fourth downs in Week 5. 

We have the target share leaders on third and fourth downs in Week 5, with at least two targets.

The Falcons' passing game popped in Week 5 against Tampa Bay, partly due to Kirk Cousins having a wild 63 dropbacks compared to 31.5 in Weeks 1-4. Furthermore, Cousins passed the ball quickly, evidenced by a 2.29 average time to throw in Week 5 versus 2.51 over the season.

Mooney edged Drake London in first-read target share in Week 5, with Mooney at 34.9 percent and London at 30.2 percent. London ranks 10th in first-read target share (35 percent), with Mooney at No. 27 (28.2 percent).

Using expected fantasy points might give us a better marker of how close London and Mooney have been. London and Mooney have an identical 15.6 EP/G, ranking 15th. Though fantasy managers drafted London as a WR1, there's a slight downtick in value before Week 5, with Mooney's stock rising significantly.

Slayton might fall into a similar bucket to Tolbert, where it's exciting, yet probably not something reliable every week. Without Malik Nabers, Slayton ranked seventh in first-read target share in Week 5 at 37 percent while ranking eighth in EP/G at 20.9. For context, Slayton has a measly 8.8 percent first-read share and 7.9 EP/G in Weeks 1-4.

Parkinson's high target share on third and fourth downs in Week 5 might be more of an indication of Matthew Stafford's weaker receiving options. Jordan Whittington and Parkinson matched with a 21.2 percent first-read target share behind Tutu Atwell at 30.3 percent. The Rams rank top 12 in pass rate, and a player like Parkinson needs the volume to be anything more than a streaming option.

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