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Joe Nicely ranks his top-10 players to watch for at the 2024 John Deere Classic held at TPC Deere Run. Top 10 players notes including course history and current form.
Hello, RotoBaller fam, and thanks for checking out our PGA Power Rankings for the John Deere Classic! I'll be pinch-hitting for the amazing Joe Idone this week while he recharges with the family ahead of some huge tournaments in the coming months.
After an exciting and dramatic U.S. Open, the events of the last few weeks have been admittedly tough to get extremely excited about for casual golf fans, though true PGA grinders know that every week is another opportunity for profit with the right amount of hard work and research. As we prepare to hop across the pond for the upcoming Genesis Scottish Open and the year's final major -- the Open Championship -- we have a stopover in America's heartland for the long-running John Deere Classic.
The Deere provides the last chance for many players to punch their ticket into the Open, as well as the opportunity for some notable stars to solidify their position in the FedEx Cup Points Standings as the season continues to tick away. Here are my top 10 players to watch at TPC Deere Run with some brief notes on why they should be on your PGA betting and DFS radars this week.
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No. 10 - Davis Thompson
The former No. 1 ranked Amateur and 2021 SEC Player of the Year is quickly making his mark on the PGA Tour. Thompson is in serious contention at the Rocket Mortgage Classic as of this writing, a performance that's just the latest in what's been a stretch of high-quality starts by the 25-year-old that's included a T9 at the U.S. Open (after going through qualifying) and a T27 at Memorial in June.
If he doesn't grab his first career PGA Tour win in Motown, perhaps the breakthrough will come at TPC Deere Run, a layout on which he recorded a T31 in his John Deere debut last year. Thompson's game has blossomed in several facets this season. Ahead of the Rocket Mortgage, he stood 16th among Deere entrants in Birdies, seventh in SG: Total, 13th in SG: OTT, and second in SG: ARG. The cream rises to the top on the PGA Tour and Thompson should continue to put himself in contention for the remainder of the year.
No. 9 - Maverick McNealy
McNealy continues fighting his way back from an injury that cost him a large chunk of the 2023 campaign and his 2024 output has been low-key spectacular. The former Stanford standout has been brilliantly consistent this season, missing just one cut in 15 starts. McNealy has logged the best finishes of his career in both a major (T23 PGA Championship) and THE PLAYERS (T9) this year, while also earning entry into the Open Championship via a recent T7 at the RBC Canadian Open.
Mark the 152nd edition of @TheOpen on the calendar.
Mackenzie Hughes, Ben Griffin, and Maverick McNealy are IN for Royal Troon! pic.twitter.com/YDTAKjnO1t
— RBC Canadian Open (@RBCCanadianOpen) June 3, 2024
Prior to the Rocket Mortgage, McNealy had gained strokes T2G in 10 consecutive starts. While the irons were a bit wobbly in Detroit, I like his bounce-back chances at TPC Deere Run, where he's gone T8-T18 over his last two John Deere Classic starts. Put simply, he's shown the ability to get the ball in the hole this year. He ranks fifth among this week's entrants in Birdies or Better Gained.
No. 8 - JT Poston
After closing 2023 on a blistering pace and opening 2024 in a similar red-hot fashion, The Postman's deliveries ebbed a bit during the Florida Swing. However, the Carolina native looks to be back on the route, as he's now made seven of eight cuts since the Masters with a T5 at Harbour Town standing as the most recent highlight.
J.T. Poston wins the the John Deere Classic at 21-under-par. Poston led wire to wire to earn his 2nd win on the PGA Tour. See all the highlights tonight at 10:00 on @kwqcnews pic.twitter.com/ZspOPWJ9TN
— Joey Donia - KWQC (@JoeyDonia) July 3, 2022
The up-and-down pattern is typical for Poston, a player who can go nuclear with the putter but runs hot and cold with his ball striking. He's managed to gain strokes on Approach in two of his last four starts -- which we can almost consider encouraging for him. Poston's confidence should also be buoyed by his recent success in this event. He won the Deere by going wire-to-wire in 2022 and followed with a T6 in last year's edition.
No. 7 - Denny McCarthy
The putting extraordinaire heads to the John Deere still in search of his first career victory on the PGA Tour. D-Mac came agonizingly close to that breakthrough win at the Valero a couple of months ago, ultimately falling to Akshay Bhatia in a sudden-death playoff. McCarthy has been solid, if unspectacular since, making seven of eight cuts with a T6 at the Wells Fargo Championship standing as the highlight.
The 31-year-old should be feeling some positive vibes ahead of this week. Two weeks ago at the Travelers Championship, he logged his first plus performance with the irons since that runner-up at Valero, and he's been excellent in recent trips to TPC Deere Run, recording T6 finishes in each of the last two editions of the John Deere Classic. He ranks first on the PGA Tour in Total Putting this season and a hot flat stick will be required to contend this week.
No. 6 - Jason Day
The Aussie veteran has garnered as much buzz for his fashion choices as his play this year. Day's Malbon drip will likely turn plenty of heads in Silvis, Illinois this week, as he looks to take advantage of a softer field than he routinely tees it up against in America's heartland.
Mandatory Jason Day fit check👌 pic.twitter.com/8TmJAviR4q
— Alex Myers (@AlexMyers3) June 18, 2024
It's an out-of-the-ordinary scheduling decision for the former World No. 1 to play in the John Deere Classic, but perhaps he's trying to find something ahead of both the Open Championship and the Olympics, where he'll represent Australia. Day does come in scuffling a bit. After a promising start to the year that included three top-10 results before the calendar hit March, his ball-striking has noticeably declined recently. Day has lost strokes OTT and on APP in each of his last four starts. While the recent form isn't much to speak of, Day's pedigree does stand out among this week's entrants.
No. 5 - Aaron Rai
As I write this, Rai is firmly in contention at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. I wouldn't be surprised if he withdraws from the John Deere if he goes on to win in Detroit, so we should certainly keep an eye on his status as things unfold.
Assuming the Englishman does tee it up in Silvis, he's legitimately one of the hottest players in the world at the moment. His ball-striking has been nothing short of phenomenal as of late. Ahead of the Rocket Mortgage, Rai had gained strokes T2G, OTT, and on Approach in five straight starts -- a streak he's on pace to extend in Detroit as of this writing.
No. 4 - Jordan Spieth
Spieth's place in the Power Rankings comes down to his history at the John Deere, his projected betting odds, and his infamous ability to randomly pop up and play well even while struggling. It's fair to say he's mired deeply in a slump at the moment, as he's consistently been a non-factor in 2024, even at some of his preferred venues such as Pebble Beach, Augusta National, and Harbour Town.
Perhaps due to his ongoing issues, the Texan will look to snag some much-needed FedEx Cup points (he currently stands at 53rd in the season-long standings) and regain some momentum ahead of the Open Championship on a familiar layout where he captured the first PGA Tour victory of his career in 2013 and won again in 2015.
🚨#BREAKING: JORDAN SPIETH HAS JUST COMMITTED TO THE JOHN DEERE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS. WOW. pic.twitter.com/JQzLc6Legb
— Spieth Legion (@SpiethLegion) June 18, 2024
Unfortunately, he comes in off his worst statistical performance of the year at the Travelers, an outing where he lost an abysmal 8.2 strokes T2G. If his name wasn't Jordan Spieth he'd be borderline to even make this week's Top 10, but we all know that the three-time major champion is capable of catching lightning in a bottle when we least expect it.
No. 3 - Sungjae Im
Like the player at the top of our John Deere Power Rankings this week, Sungjae Im is a legit superstar who stumbled out of the gate in 2024 but has shown signs of life recently.
After opening the calendar year with a top-five result at The Sentry, the South Korean grinder didn't log another such result until the Wells Fargo Championship in May. Since that outing, Im has recorded three top-10 finishes across his last five starts, most recently scoring a T3 at the Travelers two weeks ago.
He not only posted his highest finish of the year in Connecticut but also logged his best output from T2G (+8.2 strokes) and on Approach (+5.1 strokes) of the season. He brings that positive momentum to a Deere Run layout on which he's made the cut in his two most recent starts.
No. 2 - Sepp Straka
If his recent form is any indicator, the defending John Deere champion should mount a serious title defense this week. Sepp Straka secured his spot on the European Ryder Cup team -- and flirted with a final-round 59 -- in last year's edition of the Deere, triumphing in Silvis with a total score of 21-under par for the week.
The big Austrian should be considered a serious threat to repeat. He heads to TPC Deere Run with his ball-striking firing on all cylinders. Straka has gained strokes both T2G and on Approach in eight consecutive starts, while also finishing in the positive column OTT in seven of eight. He grades out second in this field in SG: APP, sixth in SG: Total, and ninth in Par-4 scoring over the last 24 rounds.
The putter hasn't been quite as cooperative -- he's lost strokes on the greens in four of his last five starts -- but he could once again find himself in contention for this title with a surge from the flat stick.
No. 1 - Patrick Cantlay
UPDATE: Patrick Cantlay has withdrawn from the John Deere Classic
The Deere isn't normally part of Cantlay's schedule, but the world's eighth-ranked golfer has, somewhat surprisingly, elected to tee it up in Silvis this year. It could be perfect timing for Cantlay -- who has struggled for a large portion of the season but looks to be seriously trending at the moment.
The Californian recorded just one top-five finish across his first eight starts of 2024 but has now logged three such finishes in his last six outings. A T3 at the U.S. Open was an eye-opening performance that Cantlay followed with an impressive T5 at the Travelers. He gained a combined 13.6 strokes T2G across those two events in what's undoubtedly been his best stretch of ball-striking this season.
Fought hard this week @usopengolf Looking forward to the next opportunity! pic.twitter.com/Xva3ndVVLt
— Patrick Cantlay (@patrick_cantlay) June 16, 2024
While there's a legitimate argument to be made that this week's score-happy TPC Deere Run layout can mitigate the advantage of "better" players, Cantlay has sneakily fared well in low-scoring environments, with three of his PGA Tour wins coming in events that had a winning score of 20-under par or lower.
Enjoy the John Deere and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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