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Saleh Awwad provides a fantasy football outlook for Buffalo Bills rookie RB Ray Davis in 2024. Where should Davis be drafted in redraft, best ball, and dynasty leagues this season?
The Buffalo Bills selected Kentucky running back Ray Davis with the 128th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He became the eighth RB taken off the board behind Texas' Jonathon Brooks, Florida State’s Trey Benson, Michigan’s Blake Corum, USC’s MarShawn Lloyd, Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright, Oregon’s Bucky Irving, and Clemson’s Will Shipley.
During the predraft process, there was no clear consensus of where Davis would be selected -- with experts predicting anywhere from the early third round to somewhere in the fifth due to his age and past injury history.
Davis measured in as 5-foot-8 and 211 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine. While the athletic testing did not jump out from this RB class, Davis' ability to produce and adjust through different systems throughout his football career is what intrigued Buffalo and several other teams leading up to April's draft.
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NFL Films' @gregcosell on Bills 4th round draft pick, RB Ray Davis🔊⬇️ #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/1P9dyzpjVL
— One Bills Live (@OneBillsLive) April 29, 2024
College Production
Resulting from a dominant high school career in New Jersey, Davis was rated as a three-star prospect before ultimately committing to Temple. As a true freshman, the San Francisco native led the Owls with 936 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. He then decided to enter the transfer portal midway through the 2020 season.
After transferring to Vanderbilt, Davis played just three games in 2021 before suffering a season-ending toe injury. However, he returned in 2022 and finished the season with a team-high 232 carries for 1,042 rushing yards and five touchdowns. This marked the program’s highest-yardage rusher since third-round pick Ke'Shawn Vaughn ran for 1,244 yards in 2018.
Despite the success at Vanderbilt, he decided to enter the transfer portal once again ahead of his final season at the collegiate level. That is when Davis chose to finish his college career with Kentucky and had his most dominant season by far. In 13 games with the Wildcats, Davis ran for 1,129 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He added 33 receptions for 323 yards and an RB FBS-high seven receiving touchdowns.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave him a 91.3 rushing grade for this incredible season, ranking in the top five among RBs from the 2024 draft class. Kentucky ranked 98th in all of college football regarding run blocking in 2023 -- with a rating of 56.7. Despite the poor run blocking, Davis was still able to thrive and further proved why he's ready for the next level. He is an all-around tough back with excellent vision, agility, and in-game speed -- along with the ability to become a viable receiving threat out of the backfield at any moment.
Ray Davis was a star everywhere he went — at Temple, at Vanderbilt, and at Kentucky.
Will always remember him for his 280-yard, 3-touchdown explosion vs. Florida last fall. The newest Buffalo Bills RB:pic.twitter.com/xbTsZlN0b7
— Steve Helwick (@s_helwick) April 27, 2024
Not only did Davis set the program’s record for most total TDs in a single season and earn him second-team All-SEC honors, but it boosted his NFL Draft stock significantly.
NFL Situation
Davis enters a situation where he can instantly slide in as Buffalo’s RB2 from Week 1. Third-year back James Cook has solidified himself as the team’s primary ball-carrier and a solid receiving option out of the backfield. Cook is coming off a Pro Bowl season where he totaled 1,567 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns.
Despite this impressive season in just his second year, the Georgia product played just 55% of all offensive snaps -- proving that Buffalo has hesitation making the 24-year-old its three-down back. The reasoning for this could be attributed to Cook’s struggles with ball carrying, pass blocking, and crucial drops. PFF rated him as the fourth-worst pass-blocking RB in the league among backs with at least 100 snaps, finishing the season with a grade of 23.6. Cook also has four fumbles on the year, which tied for second most among all RBs last season. A few of Cook's fumbles and drops ultimately ended up costing the Bills games.
Buffalo's offensive game plan took a turn last season following the firing of Ken Dorsey and the promotion of Joe Brady to offensive coordinator. Brady focused on establishing a run game early on in contests and building off that, resulting in Buffalo winning six of its final seven games and securing the AFC's No. 2 seed. This propelled Cook to become a weekly fantasy RB1 must-start.
Considering that this is one of the most explosive offenses in football, Davis will have an opportunity to fit in early on. With the only competition in the backfield outside of Cook being Ty Johnson and potentially Frank Gore Jr., Davis can immediately come in and earn a crucial role as a change-of-pace back and mix in as a receiver on passing downs behind Cook.
Fantasy Football Outlook
With the 2024 NFL regular season just around three months away from officially kicking off, best-ball drafts are already underway across several platforms. Davis currently possesses an average draft position (ADP) of 158.0 and is being drafted as the RB48 in Underdog’s season-long best-ball rankings.
While he may not have much touchdown upside, considering QB Josh Allen has 53 rushing TDs over the last six seasons, Davis is more than capable of becoming a crucial part of this Buffalo offense as long as he can gain the trust of Brady and the rest of the coaching staff.
#Bills OC Joe Brady on whether he needs to dial back James Cook’s workload:
“A lot of that is just kind of seeing how his body holds up throughout the season… He’s physically in better shape than he was [last year].”
Brady on rookie Ray Davis:
“He brings a little different… pic.twitter.com/VW2ZkvYi5m
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 28, 2024
Davis should be considered a late-round RB5 in best ball and redraft leagues. He is also someone that I would look to try and acquire at the right price in dynasty leagues as well. If Cook misses any time over the next couple of years, Davis will immediately step in and have RB1 upside in this dominant Bills offense.
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