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Rob's fantasy football running back draft sleepers (part 1) -- undervalued workhorse RBs with ADPs after the 6th round including Zamir White, D'Andre Swift, more.
The current trend in fantasy football drafts is to target receivers and quarterbacks early. If the value feels right, you might even sneak in Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce at tight end. However, what most people are getting away from is drafting running backs early. Now, old habits die hard. Change is slow, so you'll still find plenty of fantasy managers loading up on running backs early. That's their choice, but if you're waiting on a running back, this article will help you identify some of the best running backs with workhorse potential (250 touches) available in the middle rounds.
I wrote this article last season, and the results were outstanding. You can read last year's article here. Some of the names mentioned in that article include Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White, James Conner, and David Montgomery. Cam Akers was also mentioned, which was a clear miss; however, how about Kyren Williams? Right team, wrong guy. You can't win them all. Still, if you waited on running back and added one of these backs to last year's list, you had a 43% chance of drafting a top-12 running back, a 57% chance of drafting a top-15 running back, and a 71% chance of drafting a top-20 running back. Pretty, pretty good. We'll see if we can run it back this year.
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The Parameters
Before we get into the running backs, there are a few rules. We are looking for running backs who are being drafted in the seventh round or later. If we're trying to target the other positions early, we don't want to be taking a running back before that. That gives us six rounds to hammer quarterback, receiver, and tight end. This leaves us with this question: who will be left in the seventh round? That's who we're identifying. How do we know who to target? It's simple -- volume. Touches per game. That's what we're after.
Last season, only two running backs inside the top 24 for full-PPR PPG failed to reach an average of 14.7 touches per game. Over 17 games, that would equal at least 250 touches. 22 of last season's top-24 running backs accomplished this. In 2022, only three finished in the top 24 for PPR PPG average, with a touch per game total of fewer than 14.7. Just three running backs managed the feat in 2021 as well. So, when we're looking for running backs to target in Round 7 or later, we want to find running backs who are a good bet for 14.7 touches per game. Let's begin.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
RB24, ADP 88.3
Last year, in 13 games, Josh Jacobs averaged 20.7 touches per game. These came in the form of 17.9 carries and 2.8 receptions. Either way, he solidly cleared our baseline data point. He went on to average 13.93 PPG, which was good for RB18. Jacobs missed the season's final four weeks, giving White a chance to showcase his ability.
The coaching staff entrusted him with a workhorse role right away. Over those four weeks, White averaged 21 carries and 2.3 receptions per game. Like Jacobs before him, White easily clears our 14.7 touches per game baseline total. Using those per-game averages from his four-game audition as the starter, White would have finished with 357 carries and 38 receptions for 395 touches. He won't come near that in 2024, but it gives fantasy managers plenty of margin for error.
He averaged 14.1 half-PPR PPG during his four starts, which would have ranked ninth among running backs. White averaged 2.64 yards after contact per attempt and had a broken tackle every 10.5 attempts. Those two numbers would have ranked second and 10th among running backs last year. White’s breakaway run rate (the number of carries that gained 10 or more yards) was 7.7%, which would have ranked in the top five among running backs.
The Raiders gave him a big vote of confidence this offseason when Jacobs signed with the Packers in free agency. The only thing the Raiders did to augment their running back depth chart was add Alexander Mattison, previously with the Vikings. Mattison was dreadful last season, leading to him losing his job as the Vikings starter to Ty Chandler. Mattison averaged 13.1 touches per game and finished just RB40 in PPR PPG. Mattison finished with the second-worst expected fantasy point differential, scoring 50.6 fewer points than expected.
Needless to say, Mattison shouldn't be viewed as a threat. Out of 42 running backs last season with at least 150 touches, Mattison finished 28th in yards per carry, 32nd in rush success rate, 26th in yards per reception, 42nd in receiving success rate, 39th in yards after the catch per reception, and 29th in yards after contact per rushing attempt. He also had the fourth-worst broken tackle rate.
Nice vote of confidence from #Raiders in Zamir White this offseason:
1. Let Josh Jacobs walk in free agency
2. Only added Alexander Mattison, PFF's No. 56 RB among 63 qualifiers last season
3. Used just 1-of-8 draft picks at RB, a Round 6 pick on pass-catcher Dylan Laube
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) April 28, 2024
Las Vegas did draft Dylan Laube in the sixth round. From 2022-2023, Laube had 148 targets, 117 receptions, and 1,182 receiving yards in college. He could end up cutting into White's three-down workload and operate as the Raiders' primary pass-catching and third-down back. That would certainly hurt White's fantasy value, but it wouldn't stop him from being a solid bet for 14.7 touches per game.
White will likely handle most of the rushing work for the Raiders, and he'll surely be their goal-line back. Don't be surprised if he finishes with over 275 touches, most coming via rush attempts. If he stays healthy, he should flirt with 1,100 scrimmage yards and is a good bet for 7-9 touchdowns.
D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
RB25, ADP 91.8
Going into the 2024 season, PFF has the Bears ranked with the 11th-best offensive line in football. Last season, the group struggled with health, and a quarterback who held onto the ball took far too many sacks. Chicago has two young, quality tackles, Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright. Teven Jenkins has been a bright spot since switching to guard in 2022 and has been one of the better players at that position. Ryan Bates rounds out the group at center, and Nate Davis at the other guard spot. It’s a good collection of talent, youth, and experience.
Many people might be surprised to know this, but Swift recorded his worst half-PPR PPG average of his career last year in Philadelphia despite rushing for 1,000 yards for the first time. That’s kind of crazy to think about because, on the surface level, it doesn’t make much sense. Especially considering how much better the 2023 Eagles were compared to any of the Lions’ teams Swift was a part of. Oh, and the offensive line! Don’t even get me started on the differences between Detroit’s offensive lines from 2020-2022 to Philadelphia’s last year.
The difference came in touchdowns and targets. Swift’s reception per game average from each season from 2020-2022 was higher than his target per game average from last season. Think about that. He averaged more catches per game in each season with Detroit than he averaged targets per game last season with Philadelphia. Consider that in his rookie season, Swift scored 5.4 half-PPR points via receiving statistics only. In 2021, it was at 6.8 half-PPR PPG. In his final season with Detroit, in 2022, he averaged 5.8 half-PPR PPG via receiving stats. However, last year in Philadelphia, his receiving half-PPR PPG average dropped to 2.9.
He also scored a lot less! He scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie playing in just 13 games. In 13 games in his second season, Swift found the end zone seven times. He scored eight times in his final season with Detroit playing in 14 games. In 16 games with Philadelphia last year, he scored just six times. While we can acknowledge Philadelphia's offense and offensive line was better than Detroit's during Swift's time there and will be better than Chicago's in 2024, it's fairly clear that Swift's fantasy value is better when he's not in Philadelphia.
| Year | Target Share | Targets | Receptions | Yards | YPRR | YPR | YPT | YAC/Rec | Rec/Broken Tackle |
| 2020 | 12.8% (10th) | 57 (13th) | 46 (13th) | 357 (11th) | 1.69 (6th) | 7.8 (11th) | 6.3 (10th) | 7.6 (15th) | 23.0 (33rd) |
| 2021 | 18.4% (2nd) | 78 (4th) | 62 (4th) | 452 (5th) | 1.52 (16th) | 7.3 (23rd) | 5.8 (23rd) | 8.1 (15th) | 7.8 (16th) |
| 2022 | 15.1% (6th) | 70 (10th) | 48 (12th) | 389 (11th) | 1.78 (5th) | 8.1 (11th) | 5.6 (20th) | 9.2 (5th) | 16.0 (29th) |
| 2023 | 10.0% (25th) | 49 (22nd) | 39 (21st) | 214 (28th) | 1.13 (25th) | 5.5 (42nd) | 4.4 (39th) | 6.9 (35th) | 19.5 (40th) |
Assuming we see Swift's target share and receiving efficiency bounce back to where it had been from 2020-2022, Swift should receive a nice boost in his fantasy value. However, it should be noted that in 2021, Shane Waldron's first year in Seattle, the Seahawks running backs finished dead last in target totals with just 67. The next closest group of running backs belonged to the Rams at 76. In 2022, the Seattle running backs combined for 84 targets. This ranked 26th in the NFL. This past season, Seattle's running backs finished with 86 targets, 26th. That's slightly concerning and something to be cognizant of, although he certainly didn't have anyone of Swift's caliber in catching the ball out of the backfield.
However, he chose to funnel the team's targets to his trio of receivers, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which is very similar to what Chicago has this year. In reality, we should expect Swift to have more involvement in the passing game this year than in Philadelphia, but it's unlikely to rebound to his Detroit playing days. Chicago has just far too many other options in the passing game. The one bright spot is that Williams is not nearly the runner that Hurts is and will be, in theory, more willing to check down to his running back.
One of the things that makes Swift appealing is his penchant for big plays. In 2023, his breakaway run rate (percentage of carries gaining 15 or more yards) was 4.8%, ranked 17th among running backs. In 2022, it was 8.1%, ranking fifth. In his first two seasons in the league, his breakaway run rate was 5.3% (2020, 13th) and 5.3% (2021, 14th). Given the strength of their offensive line and the pass-catchers Chicago will put onto the field, Swift may run into many light boxes this year. It all sets up for a nice bounce-back season for Swift.
Swift was the RB15 in PPR as a rookie, averaging 14.5 PPG. He did that on 12.3 touches per game. In 2021, he finished as the RB11 on 16.4 touches and the RB17 on 10.5 touches per game. This past season, Swift averaged 16.8 touches per game and finished as the RB26. A lot of that can be attributed to Hurts’ below-league-average running back target share and him stealing a bunch of one-yard touchdowns. Looking through his history, it’s clear that Swift doesn’t necessarily need 14.7 touches to finish as a top 20, much less a top-24 running back.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
RB22, ADP 83.4
Most fantasy managers will likely want no part of Harris after his past two seasons, but that would be a mistake. The Steelers have made many big improvements to their offense this season. First and foremost is the addition of Russell Wilson. He’s not the guy from Seattle anymore, but he’s a whole lot better than Kenny Pickett, that’s for sure.
On top of that, the Steelers drafted left tackle Troy Fautanu in the first round and center Zach Frazier in the second round. These were the two biggest holes on their offense and they filled them with two highly regarded prospects. The offensive line should take a big step forward this season. The combination of Wilson under center and those offensive line upgrades will be huge for Harris’ efficiency and touchdown potential.
Pittsburgh had a lot more offensive weaponry than Denver had last year, but Denver scored three more points per game because it had Wilson -- or maybe it was because it didn’t have Pickett. Five percent more of Denver’s drives got points, and it had 16 more red-zone trips. Wilson has better receivers, running backs, and offensive line than Denver. This offense should be considerably better in 2024.
Think sneaky offseason winners are #Steelers RBs:
* Run-game hardo Arthur Smith hired as OC
* QB position improved/stabilized
* Draft yielded LT Troy Fautanu (20th overall), C Zach Frazier (51st overall), OG Mason McCormick (119th overall)— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) April 29, 2024
Last year, Harris was among the few players who finished with more than 14.7 touches per game but failed to finish as a top-24 running back in PPR PPG. He finished as the RB30 on 16.7 touches. In 2022, he finished as the RB20 on 18.4 touches, indicating Harris has been one of the most inefficient running backs over the past two seasons.
From 2021-2023, Atlanta ran the ball 47.4% of the time. This was the sixth-highest rate in the NFL during that span. From 2019-2020, as Tennessee's offensive coordinator, the Titans ran the ball 49.6% of the time, second-most in the NFL. Based on the resources they put into their offensive line, question marks at quarterback, and Smith's history as a play-caller, this offense is going to feature the running game at a high rate.
Inefficient or not, he’s been a top-20 running back in two out of three seasons and has finished with 284 or more touches in every season of his career. He’s also had 1,200 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns in every season of his career. It’s not a stretch to say that this Pittsburgh offense will be the most talented one Harris has ever been on.
He’s not suddenly going to become this super-efficient running back, but maybe if he were to improve his efficiency just a little bit with the kind of volume he’s going to get, Harris could be a nice buy this season. He’s a virtual lock to surpass our 14.7 touch-per-game total.
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