Hitters Advanced Metrics Leaders for Brls/PA % - Fantasy Baseball Studs and Duds (Week 8)

May 20, 2024

Statcast batter leaders in Week 8 of the 2024 MLB season according to Brls/PA %. Joshua Costello evaluates hitters who could be fantasy baseball adds or drops according to advanced sabermetrics.

Hello, RotoBallers! As another week of baseball wraps up, I will recap which hitters had the most impactful plate appearances in the past few days. Using Statcast's Barrels per Plate Appearance stat, or Brls/PA %, we can narrow our view to the hitters who are the most locked in through the season's first two months.

Statcast's Brls/PA % works by dividing the total number of barrels by the number of plate appearances within the given period. The higher the Brls/PA %, the more often the hitter makes ideal contact with the baseball. We will also examine other stats, but the Brls/PA % will be the main focus of this piece.

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Brls/PA % Leaders

Notable Players

Aaron Judge is the newest player to join the top three of the leaderboard and one of three Yankees in the top five this week. The Yankees outfielder has been hot in the past seven days, and we'll take a closer look at the numbers.

In the past week, Judge slashed .500/.625/1.208 with four home runs and seven RBI in 32 plate appearances. The 32-year-old is batting .266 with a .578 SLG and 13 home runs this season, but his quality of contact metrics suggest he should be playing even better. Judge owns a .294 xBA, meaning positive regression should be coming for him in that department. The Yankees slugger has a .459 xwOBA, .691 xSLG, 96.6 mph average exit velocity, 26.1 barrel rate, 60.5% hard-hit rate, and 18.0% walk rate. Those stats rank in the 99th percentile or better among qualified hitters this season.

It is no surprise that Judge's stats are this good since he is one of the best hitters in baseball, but it is worth noting that the past week is more indicative of his skills than the slow start he got off to this year.

Corey Seager is another new face on the leaderboard this week. The former Dodgers slugger is off to a slower start this year, but his presence on this list suggests better things ahead if he keeps making this level of contact. Seager has a .247 BA and .371 SLG, several points below his expected stats. Seager's xBA and xSLG are .283 and .526 respectively.

The 30-year-old has a lower average exit velocity this season compared to past seasons, combined with a .269 BABIP, resulting in diminished success. It is also worth noting that Seager had his lowest hard-hit rate since 2019. Another potential factor to consider is Seager's diminished line-drive rate, down 4.9% from last season. That said, Seager is one of the most talented hitters in the league and will almost certainly make the proper adjustments to increase his output. The buy-low window is open but likely won't be long.

It's time we talk about the Detroit Tigers outfielder with the 91st percentile barrel rate this season, Kerry Carpenter. Carpenter has up to five home runs this season, and his presence on this leaderboard makes him worth discussing.

Kerry Carpenter takes this pitch the other way for his 2nd homer of the game! pic.twitter.com/Y7zfv694Oo

— MLB (@MLB) May 11, 2024

The 26-year-old is batting .276 with a .528 SLG in 140 plate appearances this season. Carpenter appears to align with his expected stats with a .269 xBA and .540 xSLG, but his profile has other areas to highlight. Despite his above-average slugging, Carpenter has a low average exit velocity of 88.1 mph, which is by far the lowest in the Top 25. The Tigers slugger has numbers that nearly line up with his stats from last season and will likely continue this production level. Carpenter will likely bat around .275 and end the season with about 20 home runs, making him a valuable bat in fantasy.

Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle had a rough stretch at the plate this past week. The veteran hitter slashed .050/.050/.050 with one run scored in 20 plate appearances. The cold stretch has brought Turner's season-long batting average down to .258, but that is right around his xBA of .262.

Mountcastle is a career .263 hitter who has demonstrated 30-home run power in the past but has yet to reach that plateau since 2021. It is more likely that Mountcastle will finish the season with 25 or fewer home runs and will benefit from his team context by allowing for run-scoring and RBI opportunities. This cold stretch from the 27-year-old slugger is par for the course, and he will bounce back in due time.

The last hitter I want to highlight is Ceddanne Rafaela. The Boston Red Sox shortstop first baseman has been abysmal this season, batting .192 with four home runs and 19 runs scored in 168 plate appearances. I'd like to say that his underlying metrics tell a more encouraging story, but that is not the case.

There was hope that the Red Sox's top prospect would blossom into a great MLB player with an entire season to prove himself, but the results have been discouraging. Rafaela's xwOBA, average exit velocity, chase rate, and walk rate are all fifth percentile or lower this season. After two months of the season, it may be too early to call his season a bust, but Rafaela looks outmatched.

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