DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The RBC Heritage With Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley and More Golf Advice (2024)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The RBC Heritage

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The RBC Heritage

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

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TeeOffSports membership

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Field

Field Size: 69
Cut: Top 50 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 16

Last Five Winners Of The RBC Heritage

Expected Cut-Line 

Harbour Town

7,121 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded)

Initially built in 1969, Harbour Town is a Pete Dye track that accentuates any of the strategic concepts you might expect from one of his courses. Dye did receive help on the project from Jack Nicklaus, giving the then-young American his first taste of working on a property in his career.

Tight, tree-lined fairways forge this path of a less-than-driver appeal on most holes, although the real difference maker for me came down to the massive increase in second-shot expectations from 125-200 yards. We see 10.7% more shots occur from that range than an average stop on tour - highlighted by just less than a nine percent reduction in anticipated approaches from over 200 yards. That distribution renders a unique split since it minimizes distance when most holes possess a club-down option as the optimal route and enhances mid-iron play for those who often find themselves beaten by the elite players in the world with distance in all facets of the game.

Strong winds are one of the variables that can wreak havoc on the field's coastal design. However, that factor is marginally mitigated because of the tree-lined impact, which serves as protection for a course littered with 18 water hazards and numerous sand traps. The venue still grades as one of the more impactful in wayward drives (even though the rough is not penal), but it comes down to knowing where you can/cannot miss.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (35%)

Weighted Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green Last 24 Rounds (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Short Courses (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Weighted Dye/Nicklaus (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted Bogey Avoidance (15%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Golfers To Land In The Top Half Of The Field For All Categories

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

We could nitpick where each player should have landed, but the pricing was sound in the $10,000+ section.

Five of the six golfers each landed within one spot of proper, with those names all grading inside the top five options of this board for overall rank.

I will say that I thought my model was a little lower on Morikawa than proper. It doesn't mean I am taking him over the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Ludvig Aberg or Xander Schauffele, but there is a solid argument to be made that DraftKings got this correct of who the top six golfers were for this week's event.

That puts us in a precarious position if we think the board is sound throughout, but I am going to approach this with a very similar mentality to that at the Masters and aggressively back Xander Schauffele.

My model model continues to believe that Schauffele is the second-best golfer in the world. His profile landed with a clean six out of six top-10 grades out of the categories I ran this week, making him someone who gives you a price discount in GPP contests.

A Scheffler win always has the potential to unravel that sentiment, but I still stand by my answer last week that a good handful of contests will be won without Scheffler in those builds.

Maybe I was too bullish with those thoughts last week since it only takes a few deviations from the norm to land under the optimal sense when Scheffler wins in mass-entry tournaments, However, some of your 1,000 to 5,000 contests likely still land without the Masters Champion inside of the winning lineup, even if he takes down the title.

Here is a look at how Scheffler and Schauffele compared to one another for all the categories:

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I don't love this section for the most part. I'd rather move up to the $10,000+ range or into the $8,000s, but Tommy Fleetwood is someone that I will find myself backing over his going rate for ownership.

Fleetwood is an ideal course fit for Harbour Town because of his expected strokes gained total output in my model, not to mention that he carries some of the better form after generating back-to-back top-seven finishes at the Masters and Valero.

This sentiment that players like Schauffele and Fleetwood can't win has gone a little too far when we dive into DFS purposes.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

My interest in this section is why I will be lower in the $9,000s, although my favorite target was Russell Henley at $8,100.

Henley has generated an interesting course history answer by generating two top-20 finishes and three missed cuts in five years. However, the data shows all the answers you would want to see for a golfer trending toward a high-end finish.

The American graded a positive trajectory mover for Expected Tee-To-Green production at Harbour Town versus his baseline projection, and the 12th-place grade for 'Comp Putting' returns for this track massively outweighed the two-year running data that placed him outside the top-40 when taking on any generic track on tour.

Henley was the first outright ticket that I punched Monday morning.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

You can dive deeper into my model to understand why each golfer graded where they did, but Chris Kirk, Brian Harman and J.T. Poston each graded as some of the better combinations of safety versus upside targets on this board.

I rarely give more than one choice for the section below, but it was hard to separate the three without ownership projections.

$6,000 Options To Consider

Three top-25 finishes in a row for Lucas Glover gives us a much safer floor than any of the other names that graded near him in this section.

Favorite Play Each Section:

$10,000+ - Xander Schauffele
$9,000+ - Tommy Fleetwood
$8,000+ - Russell Henley
$7,000+ - Brian Harman/Chris Kirk/J.T. Poston
$6,000+ - Lucas Glover

Pricing not dropping into the $5,000s massively alters this board. Game theory has intriguing options this week. 

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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