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Welcome to the second edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for the 2024 season! Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change. Now that we have some batted-ball data, I will look at exit velocity (EV) this week.
EV is a more telling stat for hitters, as they influence the measure more than pitchers. However, pitchers who can avoid hard contact generally see better results. EV can be used in tandem with several other metrics to provide pretty compelling insights for pitchers.
This week, I will look at pitchers whose average EV has been great or poor in the early going. Hopefully, this will help fantasy managers learn more about some interesting players. It's never too early to start targeting fantasy trade candidates and giving yourself an edge for the season, so let's get going!
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EV Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 7, 2024.
Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
0-0, 18.00 ERA, 3.20 WHIP, 86.1 MPH Avg. EV
Max Fried's start to the season has been an objective disaster. He has lasted just five total innings through his first two starts with an 18.00 ERA, 3.20 WHIP, and an 18.8% strikeout rate. While fantasy managers hate to see it, one interesting stat is Fried's avoidance of hard contact with an average EV of just 86.1 MPH. What should they make of his poor start to the season?
Fried has gotten unlucky on batted balls in his first two starts. He has allowed soft contact with a two-degree launch angle, which is a great profile. However, his BABIP is a massive .524, meaning softly-hit balls are finding their way for hits much more frequently than they should.
Max Fried could throw 6 innings of 1-run ball in each of his next 4 starts and his ERA would still be over 4.30 pic.twitter.com/h0VVH8GyFn
— Knockahoma Nation (@KnockahomaNTN) April 7, 2024
This bad luck wouldn't be as harmful to Fried if he weren't putting so many runners for free. He has walked four batters through five IP for an uncharacteristically high 12.5% walk rate. These runners have come around to score on all the hits he's allowed, as his strand rate is just 34.2%.
The beginning of the season is one of the toughest times not to overreact. Fried has been a higher-end fantasy starter throughout his career, and two poor starts do not change that. Fried must stop walking so many batters, which history indicates he will do. He has avoided hard contact and has a solid batted-ball profile, which should eventually yield positive results. As such, I consider Fried to be a buy-low candidate at this time.
A.J. Puk, Miami Marlins
0-2, 9.00 ERA, 2.83 WHIP, 81.5 MPH Avg. EV
A.J. Puk has stumbled heavily after his strong spring, compiling a bloated 9.00 ERA and 2.83 WHIP after managing just six IP through two starts. He has not looked like the fantasy sleeper we had hoped for, but one silver lining is he hasn't allowed hard contact with an average EV of 81.5 MPH. Can he bounce back and return fantasy value?
Puk has gotten some bad luck on balls in play with a .400 BABIP, but the main issue has been the walks. Puk has already put nine runners on for free, which will cripple him regardless of the type of contact he allows.
Unlike Fried, Puk has little history to go on. The 28-year-old has pitched just 153 2/3 innings in his career and has not made a start until this season. His career walk rate of 8.4% is much lower than his current 25.7% mark, but Puk has never served as a starter. It is difficult to know how his game may change given he won't be pitching out of the bullpen.
While it is encouraging that he hasn't allowed hard contact, everything else Puk has done so far leaves a lot to be desired. I would not expect his walk rate to sit at 25% for a whole season, but he will need to get that under control to remain in the rotation. His fantasy value would plummet if he cannot right the ship, and I do not have enough confidence to stick around and find out if he can.
EV Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 7, 2024.
Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners
1-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 91.8 MPH Avg. EV
Bryce Miller is looking to follow up on a solid rookie season and has turned in two encouraging starts with a 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 27.7% strikeout rate. However, behind those starts is a 91.8-MPH average EV. Could this come back to hurt him eventually?
All of Miller's pitches except his sweeper have gotten hit hard, and his sweeper is his least-thrown pitch. The good news is that his launch angles on those pitches have mostly either been really high or really low. In other words, Miller has allowed either high pop-ups or hard-hit ground balls, which can lead to success. Further, his 3.26 SIERA suggests that his batted-ball profile hasn't been a concern early on.
Miller has allowed a lot of hard contact but has turned in solid results by inducing extreme launch angles. Ideally, he will be able to limit hard contact as the season progresses, but he could continue to find success if he cannot. It remains to be seen if and how he will adjust, but I don't see any red flags at this time.
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.33 WHIP, 94.5 MPH Avg. EV
Shota Imanaga was one of several anticipated international pitchers entering the fantasy pool this season, and his first start did not disappoint. Imanaga pitched six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against the Rockies. One lackluster aspect of his start was the hard contact he allowed. It's only been one start, but is this something fantasy managers need to keep an eye on?
Shōta Imanaga, Filthy Splitter...and is Fired Up. 🔥
8th K thru 5...and 🤫 pic.twitter.com/oWNMMpcsjk
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 1, 2024
First, let me reiterate that it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions from such a small sample size. However, the consensus on Imanaga was that his weakness in his time in Japan was a propensity for allowing home runs. Hard contact alone may not indicate future homers, but it doesn't help.
The other part of the equation (which I will investigate next week) is launch angle. Imanaga's average launch angle from his first start was 32.5 degrees, which is very high. Hard-hit pop-ups aren't a problem since they turn into easy outs, but Imanaga's batted-ball profile will need to be monitored over his next few starts.
Overall, Imanaga looked very impressive in his first start, despite allowing hard contact. His scouting report was that HR could be an issue so his batted-ball profile should be given extra attention. However, it is too early to draw any conclusions on Imanaga.
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