RADIO
Welcome to the weekend, RotoBallers. After a monster double-slate return to form in the NBA yesterday, the scheduling gods have saddled us with a weak three-gamer on a Saturday. None of the matchups profile as exciting game environments to target, but everything is relative to the slate and the Celtics-Knicks game has the highest implied total as things currently stand. That being said, both of those defenses are elite at limiting fantasy points, and there are two other squads in better spots tonight.
The Magic and Wolves hold significant positional matchup advantages as they're going up against the Pistons and Nets, respectively. The Magic are the top team to target, absent of any additional injury or rest-related news. Markelle Fultz won't play tonight, which opens up Jalen Suggs for a big role at a cheap price. Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr. are all firmly in play in a dream matchup against Detroit, and both Cole Anthony and Jonathan Isaac can be utilized as cheap dart throws.
The key to being successful in NBA DFS comes down to making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always really important to have a game plan and the best players and spots circled first before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and also gain access to our RotoBaller Premium Discord where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate up until lineups lock!
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I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace, and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.
Today's NBA DFS K-Grades
Today's NBA DFS Core Plays
Let's first take a look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.
Once again, we have an anomaly of a Saturday slate with the lack of high-ceiling pieces (Doncic, Giannis, Jokic) available as spend-up options. Jayson Tatum is the biggest name on the board, but he's fairly priced and in a brutal matchup against the Knicks, who allow the fifth-least fantasy points per game this season. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are my top targets in this range, with the Magic in a terrific spot against a Pistons team that bleeds fantasy points every time they play. Anthony Edwards has exceeded 5x value at his salary in seven consecutive games, and I'm not betting against him in an excellent spot against a Nets team that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game over their last seven games.
The Magic are a brutal matchup for opposing centers, but Jalen Duren is certainly an intriguing option at a sub-$7,000 price tag tonight. His playing time can be frustratingly volatile, but he should be locked in for at least 30 minutes tonight with fellow frontcourt mate Isaiah Stewart serving a suspension. The big man put up an eye-popping 62 DK points over 37 minutes just five games ago, and while expecting that type of ceiling tonight is unreasonable, we can feel comfortable targeting him in GPPs.
We need more news to break for us to elevate our interest in the highest-priced players (Tatum, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson) on this slate. We simply can't afford to get to them with the severe lack of quality value options tonight, but that can change on a dime as weekends tend to be the time when coaches give rotation pieces their "rest" breaks.
Top Core Plays:
- Paolo Banchero, ORL vs. DET - PF ($8,400 DK; $8,500 FD)
- Franz Wagner, ORL vs. DET - SF ($7,300 DK; $8,000 FD)
- Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. BKN - ($9,200 DK; $9,700 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Value Plays
Using the same premium NBA projections, let's sort them by fantasy points per dollar to see what players are popping as the best values tonight.
As you can see, we don't have a wide range of appealing options in the value department for tonight's slate. Wagner pops as the best value, but he's $7,300 and someone I'm getting to regardless. Jalen Suggs, Mike Conley, Wendell Carter Jr., and Cole Anthony are all pieces that we'll have to mix in because we don't have any other options on this small slate. Of those, I like Suggs, Conley, and Carter Jr. the most as they project for the most minutes and should be good for 25-30 DK points tonight.
There's a conversation to be had about targeting Jonathan Isaac at an affordable $3,700 on DraftKings. Getting to him unlocks more flexibility in lineups, but are we rushing to target a player who is projecting to play 14 minutes tonight? Yes, we are. We have to mix him in due to the lack of other value options, and it's not like the defensive-focused Isaac is going to have issues racking up counting stats against the miserable Pistons. It's a scary, but necessary, gamble to take on a slate like this.
Top Value Plays:
- Jalen Suggs, ORL vs. DET - PG/SG ($4,800 DK; $5,400 FD)
- Mike Conley, MIN vs. BKN - PG ($5,300 DK; $6,000 FD)
- Wendell Carter Jr., ORL vs. DET - C ($5,100 DK; $5,600 FD)
- Jonathan Isaac, ORL vs. DET - PF/C ($3,700 DK) DraftKings Only
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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard
We've got a group of pieces to rotate at the point guard position, with no one in particular standing out as a "must-play" option. I'll be prioritizing Suggs and Conley here because they're cheap, locked in for minutes in the upper 20s, and in favorable matchups against teams that rank in the top 7 for fantasy points per game allowed to PGs over their last 30 games. Anthony has been a lineup-killer more often than not lately, but there's a good chance this game is uncompetitive quickly and the backup PG gets some extra run against Detroit's putrid bench units. Cade Cunningham is a solid GPP pivot on the high end of the salary pool, but I'm not as interested in him at his price and in a brutal matchup against the Magic.
Top PG Options:
- Jalen Suggs @ DET ($4,800 DK; $5,400 FD)
- Mike Conley vs. BKN ($5,300 DK; $6,000 FD)
- Cole Anthony @ DET ($4,200 DK) DraftKings Only
- Cade Cunningham vs. ORL ($8,100 DK; $8,500 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard
As detailed in the "Core Plays" section, Anthony Edwards is my favorite spend-up at the SG position tonight. Granted, he's the only spend-up option, but he's still someone I'm prioritizing in my early lineup builds. He's competing with Tatum and Brunson for "most fantasy points scored" on tonight's slate, and I'll take the player who's not facing the Knicks or Celtics nine times out of 10. Edwards hasn't quite shown the monster ceiling we've seen from Tatum and Brunson, but there's no reason we can't see him put on another masterclass tonight against the sorry Nets defense.
We can also play Suggs in this spot, and there are a few mid-to-high-range players in Jaylen Brown, Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo, and Derrick White that we can mix into lineups. White is intriguing, as he's sub-$7,000 and has rattled off games of 42.75 and 50.75 DK points coming into tonight's action. The rest of the group doesn't particularly excite me at their pricing, though, so I'm prioritizing Edwards, Suggs, and White and moving on with my lineups.
Top SG Options:
- Anthony Edwards vs. BKN ($9,200 DK; $9,700 FD)
- Jalen Suggs @ DET ($4,800 DK; $5,400 FD)
- Derrick White @ NYK ($6,700 DK) DraftKings Only
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward
Wagner is the top target at SF tonight going up against the putrid Detroit defense. He's coming off a terrible performance against the stingy Cavaliers' defense, but a matchup against the Pistons is exactly what the doctor ordered for him to get back on track. Edwards can also be plugged into this position, while I like Josh Hart and Simone Fontecchio to varying degrees as well. Hart fills a positional need and has games of 40.5, 44.25, and 60.5 DK points over his most recent five-game stretch, so there's sneaky upside in getting to him despite the tough matchup against the Celtics. Fontecchio starts for the Pistons these days and plays 27-30+ minutes each night, so he's worth the gamble on a slate with next-to-zero value.
Top SF Options:
- Franz Wagner @ DET ($7,300 DK; $8,000 FD)
- Anthony Edwards vs. BKN ($9,200 DK; $9,700 FD)
- Josh Hart vs. BOS ($6,500 DK; $6,900 FD)
- Simone Fontecchio vs. ORL ($4,600 DK) DraftKings Only
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward
As with the SF position, we're starting with a player from the Magic at PF. Banchero looks like an appealing option on tonight's slate as he's relatively cheap coming off a disastrous 24.5 DK point output against the Cavaliers his last time out. He needs 42 DK points to hit 5x value on tonight's slate, and he was averaging 48.25 DK points per game over the three games before the Cleveland debacle.
Jonathan Isaac comes into play here as well, though I'm going to do my best to limit exposure to him as it's extremely risky to prioritize a player who's projected to play just 14 minutes. Kristaps Porzingis and Karl-Anthony Towns are intriguing pivot points on this slate, but I'm not getting to them with the way I'm building lineups tonight.
Top PF Options:
- Paolo Banchero @ DET ($8,400 DK; $8,500 FD)
- Jonathan Isaac @ DET ($3,700 DK) DraftKings Only
- Josh Hart vs. BOS ($6,500 DK; $6,900 FD)
- Simone Fontecchio vs. ORL ($4,600 DK) DraftKings Only
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center
Center is one of the easier positions to nail down on this slate. Towns, Porzingis, and Rudy Gobert profile as solid options at the top, but I'm more interested in Duren and Carter Jr. at their respective pricing. Duren has a higher ceiling than most people realize, as evidenced by his 62 DK point showing against the Blazers five games ago. It'll be hard for him to get anywhere close to that output tonight against the lockdown Orlando frontcourt, but he's my favorite run-back option if we're getting to a lot of Orlando (which we are).
Carter Jr. works as a value option because he should see minutes in the mid-20s and his fantasy production should see a bump going up against one of the more exploitable defenses in the NBA. Gobert is one of the only notable players with a questionable tag on this slate, and if he were to sit, Naz Reid would become a core play at just $4,900 on DraftKings.
- Jalen Duren vs. ORL ($6,900 DK; $7,700 FD)
- Wendell Carter Jr. @ DET ($5,100 DK; $5,600 FD)
- Jonathan Isaac @ DET ($3,700 DK) DraftKings Only
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stacks
- Boston @ New York (224.5 total)
- Orlando @ Detroit (223.5 total)
Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids
- I'm not feeling Brunson with the other options we have available on tonight's slate. He'd be a fine pick to work into lineups if we had any semblance of value, but since we don't I'm prioritizing the slightly cheaper Edwards and Banchero.
- We absolutely cannot play Isaiah Hartenstein tonight. He's priced like he's back in the starting lineup and playing 30 minutes, but that's simply not the case. Precious Achiuwa started the last game even with Hartenstein making his return, and Hartenstein played just 11 minutes and scored 4.5 DK points. This is a wait-and-see situation until further notice.
- Similar to Hartenstein, Bojan Bogdanovic and Al Horford are priced up incorrectly on this slate. Bogdanovic has shot the lights out recently (15-for-26 over his last two games) and he's still barely hovering around 5x value, I don't expect his hot shooting to continue against the Celtics tonight. Horford is priced for Porzingis being out, and Porzingis doesn't carry an injury designation at the mid-point of the day.
My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite overall play on the slate: Anthony Edwards
- My favorite CASH play on the slate: Franz Wagner
- My favorite GPP play on the slate: Jalen Duren / Josh Hart
- My favorite value play: Jalen Suggs
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