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UFC Edmonton DraftKings DFS Lineup Picks (Buckley vs. Malott): Expert Daily Fantasy Strategy

UFC DFS Picks, MMA DFS Lineups - icon rotoballer

Austin Swaim's UFC DFS lineups picks for UFC Edmonton - Buckley vs. Malott. Top MMA fighter picks this week include Nick Galanti, Cristian Perez, Mike Malott, Tanner Boser, and Nate Landwehr.

Every week, DraftKings Daily Fantasy offers MMA contests featuring the full UFC fight card. The DFS slate for UFC Edmonton: Buckley vs. Malott locks Saturday at 5 p.m. EST on Paramount+.

Saturday's main event is a middleweight bout between two ranked fighters heading in opposite directions. Joaquin "New Mansa" Buckley is looking to end a two-fight losing skid over Canadian grappler Mike Malott, a winner of four in a row.

Here is a full breakdown of my favorite picks on the card in each pricing tier.

 

UFC Edmonton DraftKings DFS Studs to Target

Nick Galanti ($9,500)

There's not much argument about who the top fighter in the pool is. It'll just be a matter of whether Nick Galanti can deliver. Galanti is -300 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win via an early stoppage, and it's a two-part equation.

First, his opponent, Julien Leblanc, was completely overwhelmed in his debut, losing via submission to Robert Valentin in under 150 seconds. Second, Nick Galanti is one of the stars of this season of Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) after a highlight KO:

Honestly, that result was a stunner. Not known for raw power, Galanti's best work comes on the ground with his strong American freestyle wrestling and top control.

Leblanc's poor debut on the ground only further fuels this betting line (-700), which has positioned the American as the largest favorite on the card with a fantasy-friendly style.

Cristian Perez ($9,200)

We're two-for-two on 2026 DWCS alums among the favorites on this card. Cristian Perez isn't quite in the same tier, but he's a worthwhile favorite.

"Puas" was perhaps the most hotly anticipated returner to the audition series after nearly upsetting Manoel Sousa (2-0 UFC) on the show in 2025, and Sousa is skyrocketing toward the lightweight rankings. Perez might not be far behind with a win on Saturday.

Kyle Nelson's grit in surviving a 1-4-1 start to his career and still sticking around for nearly seven years is admirable, but I've long called him a terrible "nail" against aggressive opponents. Perez's rate of takedown (7.87) and submission (0.8) attempts per 15 minutes are just that.

This is a very different matchup for the Canadian veteran, too. "The Monster" Nelson has been matched with strikers for a long time. 11 of his 12 career opponents average fewer than 1.50 takedowns secured per 15 minutes, and Perez (2.36) profiles for much more than that.

My official prognostication is the "Goat Shed" product catches Nelson giving his back at an inopportune time early in the bout.

Katlyn Cerminara ($9,000)

We don't see mismatches like Katlyn Cerminara's too often -- if the former title challenger is still in appropriate form.

It's been over 30 months since we last saw Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) in the cage as she pursued pregnancy and motherhood instead of fighting. She's now decided to make a comeback, and her initial matchup with a ranked 125er, Jamey-Lyn Horth, was brutal.

But Horth is out due to injury, so her opponent is Mackenzie Stiller, a 5'2" natural strawweight who doesn't mind a loss Saturday at 125 pounds to begin a future career at 115.

Stiller will navigate a six-inch reach and seven-inch height deficit to Cerminara, but some believe she can compete when Cerminara's takedown defense (50%) is ripe for the judo specialist to attack. I just don't think she's got the size and strength to convert takedowns.

Cerminara has never won inside the distance over 17 UFC appearances, but if the circumstances for one were ever there, it's now. She attempts 13.47 significant strikes per minute, so this could get ugly if she's able to roll downhill.

 

UFC Edmonton DraftKings DFS Mid-Tier Picks

Kyle Daukaus ($8,700)

Do not ignore this middleweight main card clash between Kyle Daukaus and Marc-Andre Barriault, which my model has at a 67.1% chance of not going the distance. Oddsmakers are even more sure at -220 odds.

There's just a lot of volatility between Daukaus, a three-time KO victim in five UFC setbacks, and Barriault, a 10-time taster of defeat with the promotion. I see it as a balance of fragility against skill.

In most of those situations, I'll always prefer skill. Daukaus' +0.22 striking success rate (SSR) is a good bit ahead of Barriault's (-0.29), and the grappling isn't close when Daukaus attempts 7.78 takedowns and a whopping 2.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

"The D'Arce Knight" isn't afraid to hunt his favorite choke, and Barriault's takedown D (68%) isn't strong enough for me to believe he won't have an opportunity.

Mike Malott ($8,400)

Canada is one of MMA's most important and interested markets per capita, but the country has struggled to foster a title contender since Georges St-Pierre retired in 2017. "Proper" Mike Malott might be that guy.

After a main event KO of Gilbert Burns in Winnipeg, he'll look to keep climbing the rankings with a win over Joaquin Buckley in Edmonton. I think it's an intentionally favorable matchup.

Malott's +0.93 SSR is increasing each fight, and he had 15 seconds of gas in the tank against Neil Magny, in a fight he was winning, from a perfect 8-0 UFC record. Buckley (+0.52 SSR) has faded with two straight grappling-heavy losses, and he's got zero ranked wins.

If power is the selling point for Buckley, whose 1.24% knockdown rate (KD%) is really good, it's not ideal that Malott (1.66 KD%) has him beat there.

My model has Malott at 41.6% likely to win inside the distance, and this salary is pretty friendly, considering that even a decision win would include a full 25 minutes of volume.

Joel Faglier ($7,900)

In a betting environment, you can just pass on the heavyweight debuts of two totally unproven commodities, Georgia's Joel Faglier and Canada's Javad Mahjoub. In DFS, it's the most important swing fight on the card.

Faglier is stepping in for Louie Sutherland on short notice, and the American is in road territory against Mahjoub. I was perplexed why the betting line was so close...until I turned on the tape.

In a fight against UFC alum Cody East, Faglier -- a wrestler by trade -- totally dominated East in the standup with punishing low kicks and jabs. He also secured a few timely takedowns. East is also a real measuring stick for the UFC that Mahjoub doesn't have.

In two fights I reviewed of Mahjoub's, one of his opponents was 5'9", and the other was a fight in South Korea against Gamzat Sirazhudinov, where the Russian ran out of gas in three minutes.

The Tristar product and judoka specialist might be at home, but he's got no tangible experience. I think Faglier can dominate this fight on the feet and might have superior endurance, but we're all guessing here.

 

UFC Edmonton DraftKings Underdog Plays

Timmy Cuamba ($7,600)

Xtreme Couture, home of middleweight champion Sean Strickland, is the best gym in the sport. They're trying to tune up "Twilight" Timmy Cuamba in a do-or-die battle for his UFC career.

This is Cuamba's second fight at 135 pounds, a division for which his 5'9" frame with a 71" reach is massive. We saw the dividends already in a loss when he landed 3.48 significant strikes per minute against Bernardo Sopaj compared to his career-long average (2.88).

It's slim pickings in the value tier, and I'm not entirely sold on Louis Jourdain (+4.88 SSR) just due to how poor his opponent was on DWCS. His brother, Charles, has struggled mightily with consistency in a 9-8 UFC career, and they spar together.

Above all, DraftKings Sportsbook lists this fight as a slight favorite to go the distance (-120), which is a better outlook for survival than many in his salary tier.

Tanner Boser ($7,400)

This isn't just the second time that Canada's Tanner Boser has represented his home country in UFC. It'll be the first time he's represented Alberta as a native of the province who lives just under three hours from Edmonton.

Boser isn't just a good story to get behind, though. My model has him 40.4% likely to win (+148 implied), and one of the reasons I have it is to remove bias toward good stories.

That's because the Canadian "Bulldozer" has an efficient +1.82 SSR behind excellent striking accuracy (53%) and defense (57%) in an 11-fight UFC tenure. With a low 0.35 KD%, I'd think he was a smaller division fighter rather than a heavyweight if I didn't know any better.

His opponent, Jhonata Diniz, has struggled badly with wrestling positions, but Boser has just one takedown attempt in over 119 octagon minutes.

I think either guy will have to win on the feet, and Diniz (+0.27 SSR) just hasn't really convincingly separated in that realm since his knockout win over Austen Lane (1-5 UFC) in April 2024.

Nate Landwehr ($7,100)

The single most volatile fight on the card is a lightweight war between Mandel Nallo and Nate "The Train" Landwehr, who moves from 145 to 155 pounds in hopes of helping his durability.

Landwehr has been TKO'd in three straight fights, so many are crossing the Tennessean off their lists. I get it. But the weight shift could definitely matter in regard to his ability to eat punches, and he's the significantly more accomplished fighter.

The underdog has beaten four multi-time UFC winners as recently as April 2024 against Jamall Emmers, who is climbing the rankings to do this day at featherweight. Nallo's last four pro wins? They have a combined 41 losses, and this was also a guy brutally finished in his UFC debut:

The "all gas and no brakes" mentality of both guys probably means someone is going to sleep, and RotoBaller's MMA optimizer expects a 40.9% roster rate for Nallo compared to 16.9% for Landwehr. You've gotten yourself way ahead in tournaments if "The Train" wins the coin toss.

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